Delivery leverage for on-time supply - Walmart pays upfront

Mexico's leading retailer Walmex has made early payments totalling US$326 million to its suppliers to make sure they deliver products on time for Thanksgiving and for the Christmas season. This has to be an indicator that when the circumstances are right, even the world’s biggest retailer will pay for goods in advance.

When you take into account that retailers in Mexico pay in 60-90 days, it can be seen that Walmart are in fact paying up to 6 months earlier than suppliers would normally have been paid…

Why a retailer can pay upfront
In practice, being cash-rich in that the consumer pays on receipt of goods, a retailer is capable of, and willing to pay in advance, on delivery or up to 90 days later, with or without settlement discount. In the case of private label, a retailer can even contribute to the investment in special plant, buy the raw material and ingredients and even contract to purchase at a given price for up to five years in order to help the supplier to amortise investment.

It all depends on the deal….
For this reason, it is vital that suppliers always have a clear idea of the financial dimensions of their relationship with individual retailers. This means being realistic about the pulling-power of their brand vs. available alternatives in the eyes of both consumer and retailer.

Running the numbers, both ways...
Based on this potential leverage, it is essential to calculate each element of the deal in terms of actual/estimated cost and also the incremental sales to the retailer in order to break even. It is then necessary to calculate what the retailer ‘gets’ from the brand in terms of margin, free credit, settlement discount, trade funding and above-the-line support in addition to service level, rotation, availability, exclusivity and priority when stocks are scarce, all set against their sales equivalent required to generate this total investment.

In other words, by listing the brand, a retailer on 5% net profit needs sales of £20k for every £1k received from a supplier…this needs bringing out in negotiation!

Going to ‘see’ the buyer without having run the numbers in this manner is worse than going in blind, especially if your competitor, without your brand benefits, knows and can use the financials, has eyes wide open…

Incidentally, before emailing the Asda buyer, it might be prudent to keep in mind that with planned purchases of $6.4bn in Mexico for Q4, Walmex are in fact paying for $326m in advance, i.e. 5% of purchases…

New Supply Chain Finance Scheme - every little helps, but..

News that a group of 38 major UK companies, including Tesco, GlaxoSmithKline, Marks & Spencer, Diageo, Rolls Royce, BAE Systems, Centrica, and Vodafone, have signed up to the Government’s new supply chain finance scheme aimed at helping improve the flow of working capital for small businesses by piggy-backing on the customer's credit rating is a great step forward, but suppliers to retailers are still under pressure from financing trade credit.....

Implications

• Great initiative in that small/medium suppliers can benefit from the credit rating of larger customers
• But they still have to finance the credit, albeit perhaps not at penal interest rates
• The real issue is retailers taking 45 days+ to pay for goods that are often daily-delivered, with shoppers paying in cash…
• See Cost of credit calculation on Kamcity

Action

1. Work out the actual cost of giving credit to the customer
2. Calculate the incremental sales required to cover cost of free credit i.e. say your net margin is 5%, then every £1,000 it costs to give free credit means you need incremental sales of £20,000 to cover the cost
3. Substitute your figures in the above calculation and book an appointment with the buyer...

Premier Foods - the split-up options

Following Premier Foods appointment of a new COO with a brief to help see the grocery and bread businesses managed as two distinct divisions in recognition of the different “opportunities and challenges” facing each business, it might be useful for NAMs to explore the options and possible actions available to the company. This could add insight on how the company will manage the trade and also help you anticipate the impact on competing brands.

Essentially, the company needs to increase its perceived value in the market and thus raise its share price. This will not only give it more autonomy but will also make it easier to sell all or part of the operation at the appropriate time..

The emphasis will therefore be on improving its Return On Capital Employed (ROCE), a driver of the share price.

Step 1
The first step has to be a split of bread and groceries, given that they are totally different business models.

• Bread is a fast moving, high rotation (daily), high wastage (10+%), short shelf life (days/weeks) and narrow margin business, especially supply-side, whereas
• Grocery is slower moving, low rotation (2 monthly), lower wastage (2+%), long shelf life (1-2 years), more generous margins supplier and retailer

Bread: Premier need to strip out cost, sell-off non-core parts, simplify and explore possibilities of sharing the distribution burden

Grocery: Here they need to continue emphasis on a limited number of power-brands and sell off anything non-core

Step 2
The company will then be in a position to apply the ROCE principles to what remains on the two businesses.
ROCE = Return on Sales  x Sales/Capital Employed  i.e. improve the margin and speed up the rotation of capital (factories + stocks, debtors and cash)

Companies are either in a narrow margin, fast rotation business, or they are in a higher margin, slower rotation business. This is why splitting the bread and grocery businesses is a long overdue no-brainer….

Step 3
First they need to focus on improving Net Margin by

• Increasing their selling prices and sales (more advertising on fewer power-brands, up-skilling the negotiators)
• Reducing the levels of discount and promotional expenditure ( did I suggest it was going to be easy?)
• Reducing the levels of sales and distribution costs (hence hiving off the bread business, and need for special vigilance on trade funding and compliance)
• Driving volume, especially bread but also grocery power-brands ( move to more responsive social media )
• Changing the product mix to focus more on higher margin items, (consumers permitting…)
• Minimise ‘specials’ in terms of tailor-made deals/trade arrangements of any kind, (they just cost more…)

Step 4
Then comes increasing the Rotation of their Capital by

• Driving the volume of sales as high as possible, using existing or lower levels of Fixed Assets (factories, plant), + Current Assets (stocks, debtors and cash)
• Getting paid faster via settlement discounts, ‘delisting’ any financially unstable customers
• Improving sales forecasts i.e. if they forecast 100% and achieve 95%, then 5% of sales become ‘passengers’ with their costs shifting onto the 95% that are sold, thereby hitting the bottom line
• Generally, improving their ability to convert business cost into revenue…

These moves will drive the overall ROCE, increase the share price, and make each or both of the companies easier to sell, if necessary.

If all of this seems a bit theoretical, why not watch this space over the next six months? You will then be looking at historical moves, whereas some of the above points may help you anticipate and take appropriate action NOW, when it really matters…

The top 10 high street stores to haggle in?

Latest research shows that most high street retailers are responsive to haggling, to varying degrees…
In a poll of 2,544 people, Martin Lewis of MoneySavingExpert.com  found that most high street players will respond to haggling, with the following success-rate for determined shoppers.

The top 10 high street stores to haggle in
Retailer       &    Success rate (of those who tried)
1. Comet              78%            6. Asda             60%
2. B&Q                78%            7. Tesco            58%
3. Currys/PCW    78%              8. Wickes          56%
4. Homebase        69%            9. Sainsbury's 54%
5. John Lewis       63%           10. Debenhams 53%
Source: MoneySavingExpert.com

How this approach can help in negotiating with buyers.
Given that many buyers can sharpen their negotiating skills simply by dealing with more suppliers per day than a NAM can manage in a week, coupled with the fact that role-reversal can add insight re the other party’s position, then taking every opportunity to haggle at store level could be your way of raising your negotiating game to new levels of expertise. (See here and scroll down for Martin’s Top 20 haggling tips)

For a real immersion in your customer’s culture, why not start easy and gradually move down the haggling league table before selecting your customers outlets for your experiments?

Some precautions
Given the prevalence of security cameras, it might be worth donning off-duty clothing and a hint of make-up to avoid your next encounter with your buyer becoming a retaliation session…

Going for broke?
Finally, the retailer most resistant to haggling in the survey was Boots (it figures?) with a success-rate score of 29% - a real opportunity to refine your haggling skills, especially if you handle a different account…

Boots breaks the 'silence' as it agrees deal with China firm

Alliance Boots, under the terms of a strategic alliance agreement signed yesterday, announced that it will acquire a 12% stake in Nanjing Pharmaceutical Company Limited, through a private placement, for a total consideration of approximately £56 million (RMB560 million), making it the second largest shareholder with Board and operational management representation.

Boots China profile
Nanjing Pharmaceutical Company Limited, which is listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, is the fifth largest pharmaceutical wholesaler in China with sales of around £2 billion (RMB20 billion) in 2011.
Alliance Boots first entered the Chinese pharmaceutical distribution market in 2008 through its Guangzhou Pharmaceuticals Corporation joint venture, which operates in complementary geographies and continues its successful development.

A powerful stepping-stone...
In all, with this latest move Boots is aiming at gaining a 20-30% share of the Chinese pharmaceutical distribution market. Apart from the inevitable appeal of adding a retail element in China asap, this major wholesale step is a clear indicator that even without the Walgreens’ tie-up, Alliance Boots is determined to pursue its policy of increasing its global reach and scale.

This will not only make it more influential in the Walgreens-Boots mix, but will be another step in making the company one of the most connected and centrally-run health & beauty operations in the world, at least in the short and medium term, say five years.

Impact on suppliers
This increasingly scalable company will continue to be heavily geared in a global economic environment. As a result there will be increasing pressure on the company to provide an exit strategy for its stakeholders via re-flotation.

All of this adds up to increasing power and influence in its relationships with suppliers, a position that will inevitably cause it to bring issues like prices & terms disparities, and especially absolute cost-prices to the negotiation table.

Action
It hopefully goes without saying that any supplier wishing stay in the ring needs to factor the full global profile of W-B into the mix, fast.
….and if anyone, anywhere in your company still needs convincing of the obvious, why not run the numbers on Walgreens-Boots owning even 20% of global Health & Beauty retail & wholesale, with power to match…  

Roy of the Rovers - a lesson in fair play?

Last week’s demise of The Dandy brought to mind another childhood source of entertainment and insight, Roy of the Rovers.
Like most other 10 year olds, each week I eagerly awaited the arrival of The Tiger comic, featuring the life and times of Melchester’s star player.

Fair Play?
However, on one shocking occasion, a rival player, in full view of the reader, but out-of-sight of the referee, actually flicked the ball with his hand to enhance his shot. This unlawful move so outraged me I rapidly scanned the rest of the strip in vain for evidence that the move had been noted as the subject of a penalty, at least..
My sense of injustice was such that for the next five weeks I was on the newsagent’s door-step by opening time, awaiting delivery of the latest edition to check whether the authorities had taken any action..

Gradually it dawned on me that perhaps football, life and even business itself was not always fair.

I then began to wonder if there were other potential career-enhancing insights available via Roy’s storyline?

A source of continuous education…?
Unlike more gently-reared modern players, Roy enjoyed a 39 year playing career, until the loss of his foot in a helicopter crash in 1993. To keep the strip exciting, Melchester was almost every year either competing for major honours or struggling against relegation to a lower division, allowing repeating opportunities for readers to develop their numeracy skills, especially in calculating the odds in each scenario.

Planning & focus?
The strip followed the structure of the football season, thus providing  great awareness of deadlines, the need for planning and teamwork, but especially the ability to optimise output within the time constraints of a match, against rivals intent upon minimising the impact of such endeavours.

Global reach?
Geographical insight was enhanced via the team’s foreign travel. In the several months each year when there was no UK football the most common summer storyline saw Melchester touring a fictional country in an exotic part of the world, often South America, where they would invariably be kidnapped and held to ransom.

Negotiation against the odds?
During the first ten years of his playing career, Roy was kidnapped at least five times. This obviously enhanced readers’ negotiation and financial skills, helping them to distinguish cost and value of experience and longevity in a high-output career…

Career application?
Given the benefits of this source of inspiration and early induction, readers that later chose a NAM career appeared to arrive ready-made, exhibiting the ability to demonstrate "real 'Roy of the Rovers' stuff", displaying great skill, or results that went against the odds, in their dealings with the UK trade….

And often without the benefit of much formal training, curiously enough…

Farmers Escalate Milk Price-Cuts Protest

The impact of the price cuts ‘amounts to a combined profit warning for the overwhelming majority of dairy farmers in this country’ and reports indicate that supermarkets are to be targeted by blockade-protests from farmers. In some cases, given the fact that cows need milking daily, farmers plan to distribute the undelivered milk free-of-charge outside supermarkets.

In fact, in 2009 continental farmers resorted to more extreme measures such as spraying three day’s supply of unused milk onto fields and at the police.

A call to action
Yesterday, an unprecedented meeting of farming unions called for the immediate reversal of milk price cuts imposed on UK farmers since 1 April. The NFU chaired the meeting of leaders from NFU Scotland, NFU Cymru, Tenant Farmers Association (TFA) and Farmers for Action who came together in an industry show of strength after a catastrophic three months for the sector.

The representatives called for all milk price cuts imposed on farmers since 1 April to be restored by 1 August. They also plan a crisis summit in London on Wednesday 11 July.

Impact on consumer-retailer-supplier relationship
As savvy consumers, we need to run the numbers and realise that constant pressure on shelf-prices pushes back up the supply chain and in the case of clothing can eventually end with child labour abuses in third world countries. In a similar way, relentless pressure on milk prices can result in farmers going bust.

As savvy retailers, we need to run the numbers to ensure that in attempting to meet real consumer-needs, on-shelf availability is not traded off against the need for competitive pricing.

As savvy suppliers, we need to run the numbers to ensure that the total-offer-package meets consumer need better than available competition. In other words, we need to strip back any aspect of Product, Presentation and Place that may be superfluous to consumer need, and sell at a Price that represents better value than the competition.

Going forward
We then need be able to apply a similar numbers-based rationale in assembling a needs-based trade package that enables us to negotiate ‘fair-share’ deals with trade-partner retailers. These are retailers that can appreciate, and accommodate, the realities of each stage of the demand-supply chain in running efficient and effective routes to savvy consumers, in an open, needs-based market environment, offering a package that represents better value than the competition…..

All else is detail.

Economies of scale: Customers Looking For Savings From Suppliers

Yesterday’s NamNews’ item on Morrisons’ alleged demands for £500k savings from some suppliers produced our top visitor-count for the day.  
However, the issue is not whether larger quantities mean greater savings, but whether the discount demanded by the buyer matches the savings made by the supplier.

'Economies of Scale'

As you know, there are many potential sources of economies of scale, depending on the company and category in question, including:

- spreading administrative overheads over a bigger operation/quantities

- purchasing power to get better deals from suppliers of raw materials, packaging, etc

- lower costs in manufacturing - e.g. if longer runs result in lower costs per unit produced

- greater delivery quantities leading to lower distribution costs

- cross selling synergies

Any such savings will obviously depend upon your category and factory capacity/asset-utilisation levels.

The incremental sales route to fair-share negotiation

However, either way, the ‘incremental sale’ calculation allows suppliers to approach the problem from a more productive angle…

In other words, if a customer demands £500k cost-price reduction from a supplier netting 7% on the business with that customer, a ‘back-of-envelope’ calculation says the supplier needs incremental sales of £7.1m to cover the cost (i.e. £500k/7 x 100), unless you can identify and measure some real scale savings, and reduce the incremental sales requirement appropriately.

The basis of your costing-model

Any credible negotiation stance means that you will need to reveal the basis of your costing-model ( i.e. even tougher negotiation with your colleagues?) in order to be able to quantify and argue with the buyer that there is a shortfall between the actual savings and the discount demanded, an additional discount that will not realistically be covered by the anticipated incremental sales. 

Quantifying in this way may result in something approaching a fair-share solution..

Simply saying no is not an option

Q1. Why not substitute your figures and see how much extra you need to sell in order to break-even on the new deal?

Q2. Some might argue that explaining scale economies to a customer is not the job of a NAM/KAM. If so, please explain to us mere earthlings why the global financial crisis is diminishing, rather than enriching, the scope of the job…

Ferrari as collateral for €2k??

A Dublin property developer goes to his bank for a 10 day loan of €2k.

Following the opening stance, the bank manager offers the loan at 10%  annual, + a little extra for admin, i.e. €57, effectively 104% interest, and requests security.

The property developer offers his new €450k Ferrari parked outside, hands over the keys, takes the cash and leaves the bank. The bank manager parks the car in the bank's underground car park, and later jokes with the staff about the €450k car being used as security for €2k…

Ten days later the property developer returns, repays the €2k + €57 interest, picks up the keys and is about to drive off when the bank manager asks why he was prepared to use such an expensive asset as security…and received the reply 'Now where in Dublin could I get 10 days secure parking for €57?

Moral: The same deal can have different values for each party in a negotiated agreement…

Have a dealerious weekend, from the NamNews Team!

Buyer-seller corruption, a potential hot-potato for all?

Yesterday’s court case involving large-scale corrupt payments to a potato buyer raises important issues for suppliers and retailers. Given the potential impact on share prices of both parties, coupled with ever stringent corporate and government monitoring in these unprecedented times, it is surprising that anyone is nowadays prepared to take the risk of being a party to corrupt inducements to buy. In other words, it needs just one person with a conscience, or a grievance, to lift the lid….

However, given that the current plaintiff was arrested in 2008, with the case having now arrived in court, it could be said that parties on each side of the seller-buyer relationship harbouring any doubts re. their version of the selling-buying process have had adequate time to reflect on the implications and take appropriate action.

The distinction between gifts and bribery
If buying decisions were made solely on objective, rational criteria, a computer would probably do a better job. Instead, given that the basic offer satisfies the key objective criteria, then a host of emotional criteria/influences/needs come into play.

Emotional needs in buying 
These include needs for avoiding effort, self-esteem, (pride, self-importance, power), to imitate, to acquire money (via saving vs. making, for the company) need for possession (icing-on-cake), investigate (data), create (new), sense of duty, and especially a need for security (avoiding fear). These can include meals out, or even a bottle of whisky at Christmas.

It needs to be emphasised that such attempts to satisfy the emotional needs of a buyer are not corruption, they are merely ‘icing on the cake’ by way of celebrating a done deal, a deal which ticks all the rational, objective boxes.

Bribery defined
Bribery is quite clearly an overt inducement to the buyer to over-ride the logic of a buying decision where a supplier’s competitor is patently offering a better deal on a like-with-like basis. In other words, the supplier’s offering is equal with that of the competitor except for the additional £10k on the price to fund the bribe.

This point, the first of many, was brought out yesterday in court by the prosecution: "A peculiar feature of the corruption was that it was self-funding. [The supplier was] not paying for it, [the retailer was] paying for the corruption of their own buyer and this was achieved by overcharging [the retailer]".

Action for NAMs and KAMs
The answer for NAMs/KAM’s is always to attempt to revert to the base deal and check that it satisfies objective buying criteria (the buyer’s job needs), like-with-like, before focusing on the buyer’s emotional needs. In practice some of this process occurs simultaneously, but it remains vital that the supplier’s basic offering is defensible and transparent, always, and with 20/20 hindsight…..its the nature of the job, folks. 

Touching response-rates in improving buying appetite, twofold

In these unprecedented times, when every little helps, light touching of the other party can apparently impart a subliminal sense of caring and connection, leading to more successful social interactions, better teamwork and even shopping behaviour.

In a new study ranging from dating to restaurant tipping and following the waiter’s advice, passersby responding to surveys in a mall, and the percentage of shoppers in a supermarket who purchase food they had sampled, it would appear that suppliers and retailers are missing a trick by not building more touching opportunities into the shopping experience.

Impressing the researcher...
Given that the author Leonard Mlodinow is a theoretical physicist at the California Institute of Technology, with an appetite for statistical significance, even he was surprised to find a twofold increase in response rates following a light touch on the arm…

Not convinced?
Some scepticism is understandable. After all, some people recoil when a stranger touches them. And it is possible that some of the subjects in the studies did recoil but that their reactions were outweighed by the reactions of those who reacted positively.

'Over-touching'?
However, for those finding this blog-post an answer to a personal history of low-success social encounters, and are even tempted to experiment without further delay, it must be emphasised that these were all very subtle touches, not gropes. In fact, in studies in which the touched person was later debriefed about the experience, typically less than one-third of the subjects were even aware that they had been touched.

Apart from being an obvious pointer for Tesco in helping to warm up the shopping experience, there is surely an application in terms of supplier-retailer negotiation, both within and following a multilevel and multifunctional handshake routine…?

(Thanks to Andrew Sullivan)

Nestlé Wins Battle For Pfizer Unit With $11.9bn Deal

Pfizer has agreed to sell its baby food unit to Nestlé, in a deal worth $11.9bn, giving the Swiss food giant a major boost in emerging markets across the world.

With 85% of Pfizer’s sales in emerging markets – the deal will complement Nestle’s existing infant nutrition business perfectly. The sale marks Pfizer’s largest divestiture since it divested some consumer health brands to J&J in 2006 for $16.6bn. The unit owns infant formulas such as SMA and Promil, and also makes Enercal supplements for adults. It has a network in more than 60 countries, and was the world’s fifth-largest maker of infant formulas in 2010.

Implications:

• As the No.1 food company in many countries, Nestlé are accustomed to, and will have anticipated issues raised by anti-trust/monopoly legislation.
• This step to full global coverage will enable the company to develop and sustain a fully global strategy for the combined brands in baby food.
• However, given that the company will probably take its time integrating the two operations in order to secure a smooth transition for the companies and the trade (the 1988  Nestlé–Rowntree integration took several years), this may give competitor brands some time to adjust to the new category dynamics…although a couple of what-ifs this morning might be a wise precaution...

Kammed Laughter: Taking humour seriously in negotiation....

Given the current financial climate, gallows humour might best describe any attempt at levity as a relief from the doom and gloom…  Incidentally, looking over the precipice (doom) does not necessarily go hand-in-hand with ‘gloom’. In fact extreme, unprecedented change should be seen as a breakable window of opportunity (‘doom and boom’?) for positive KAMs, while competitors wait in vain for a return to ‘normal’…

Laughter defined

Given that laughter is a nervous reaction to tension (a comedian deliberately builds this up via the story, causing puzzlement, anxiety and even suppressed anger on the part of the recipient to a point where the tension is ideally released via explosive/convulsive relaxation of the jaw muscles, nasal passages (or worse), the only proviso being that the longer the build-up, the better had be the punch-line!

Factories have been closed down for less…..

Delicate use of humour in negotiation

In the KAM role, skilled use of laughter can be an aid in optimising a negotiated agreement.

For instance, in delivering serious news/data to a buyer, if humour is totally absent, the only way to indicate ‘more serious’ is to up the volume or emotion, even more intimidating, leaving no guns in reserve….

However, a KAM that is able to manage well-placed levity allows emphasis of serious interventions as required, thus adding to one’s control of the overall negotiation session.

Operating safely....

To operate safely at this level requires a high degree of focus on the buyer’s combination of Job or Functional needs, whilst also taking into account the complex set of unspoken emotional needs that are not supposed to, but in fact greatly influence the progress to negotiated settlement.

To achieve these levels it is obviously best to practice on those in your circle where abject failure does not result in loss of job or divorce…in other words, sharpen your skills on those you still regard as your friends…obviously avoiding those who are also your buyers…

Incidentally humour can and should be funny too...

Go on, have a ‘witty’ weekend by practicing on your friends, from the NamNews Team!

Tesco's strategic options, suppliers' strategic response

What is this about?

Tesco’s core issue is its profit warning in January, ultimately a driver of ROCE, in turn affecting the share price. With 2/3 of its business in UK, any setback causes the company to challenge one of the basic ‘rules’ in global retailing – ‘dominate the home market’. However, any company having more than 25% of a national retail market attracts negative attention from media, politicians and ultimately shopper-voters. Within the home market, supply chain efficiency made some large space redundant unless freed-space is filled via product diversification. Meanwhile, having grown share at the expense of less efficient competitors, Tesco is now being challenged by retailers that are as good as, or better, for a share of a zero-sum, flat-line market in terms of range, quality and service, as it strives to return to the Tesco 'rule of 25'.

Finally, the early retirement of a strong unchallenged leader left at least four people who felt they should fill his shoes…

Where is it headed?

Essentially, Tesco has four complementary options:

• Sell more of its current products to current users (increase basket size)
• Sell new products to existing users (Clubcard data, trade up via diversification)
• Sell current products to new users (use Clubcard data to profile ideal Tesco users and attract more of this profile with current products)
• Sell new products to new users (high risk, given two unknowns)

They need to re-apply this formula in the UK, delivering greater perceived value to shoppers, vs. competition, and then roll this strategy out globally.
They need to re-assess their competitive appeal in the eyes of shoppers, vs. the competition in terms of range, quality and service, vs. price. The leadership issue needs sorting in order that the entire company pulls in one direction, rather than each function attempting to ‘rescue’ Tesco. This was the challenge faced and successfully dealt with by McLaurin many years ago….

How does it affect you?

Essentially depends upon category, geographical spread and degree-of-partnership, but in the short term the above strategy will put pressure on all aspects of the supplier-retailer relationship, especially price and supply-chain efficiency, as Tesco re-appraises its supplier-base vs. alternatives available

What to do about it?

• Re-assess your competitive appeal to Tesco as a company, and brand within key categories, and re-engineer to optimise, where necessary
• Re-evaluate your match with trade partnership criteria (Potential, Partnership, Profit and Performance)
• Invest (time, money, people) in what can demonstrably help Tesco implement its strategies, and meets your ROCE objectives 

Above all, insist on fair-play in all aspects of your Tesco trade partnership, a once-only opportunity…

Where now for Tesco succession?

Too early to check the hats in the ring, we believe the City will give Clarke a year, following the Brasher development.

Decision time
-  A fast, high-level internal switch would allow Clarke to maintain global momentum. 
-  Going outside for what would need to be a strong, experienced and ‘natural-for-the job’ player would take too long, might simply re-ignite possible internal career-pressures, and could suggest a possible Clarke-replacement option for the City….. 

Marketplace reaction
Meanwhile, competition in the marketplace will be a combination of Tesco defence, with other multiples attempting various degrees of land-grabbing, all now led by very experienced teams focused on optimising this new window at Tesco’s expense.

Supplier action
Suppliers now need to revisit their trade strategies to reflect new competitive appeals in an unprecedented market, and factor in probable moves of the mults. Retailers will not waste time being subtle, so the moves should be pretty obvious.

Then working from 'their' consumer back to the essence of the brand, suppliers should simplify and make the offering very transparent, and echo this in simplified trade strategies, with built-in fair share and compliance conditions, all the way through the supply-chain...

Or sit on the sidelines, have a better view of the race and wait for things to settle down...

Either way, it is going to be tough, very tough for all stakeholders…

Money-saving tips from America … road-tested by penny-pinching UK consumers

Ranging from eating beans rather than meat to filling up the car early in the morning when the air is cool, and the gas is dense, the Guardian Team give twenty tips a reality-check by running the numbers and evaluating any real saving…

Impact on the consumer

Whilst not all money-saving tips will yield real savings, in practice the act of re-evaluating all expenditure coupled with comparison-shopping is bound to heighten consumer appreciation of value-for-money and cause them to reduce/postpone their ‘excessive’ purchases.

How the Buyer will react

In the same way, buyers being consumers are likely to apply the same disciplines in the day-job. Whilst it is tempting for suppliers to react via defensive mode, realistically pro-active NAMs can benefit by being able to calculate and demonstrate the financial impact of their support package on the retailer’s P&L.

Calculating the cost and value of their free trade credit can be a useful first step….  

Optimising the Value of Trade Credit

How to calculate cost to you and value to the customer, of free trade credit
Make trade credit an integral part of the negotiation process, and not just another trade term...

Making the 'Size of Deal on the Table' Count in Negotiation?

Given the current financial pressures in the market, no deal with a customer can/should be regarded as ‘one-off’. In fact, all arrangements with a buyer have a knock-on effect and should be factored into the total business performance for each party. By placing the deal in a proper market context, it is easier to add value on completion and ensure a greater degree of compliance.  

In practice it means making the following upfront calculations:

Customer’s share of the category (£,%)

Establishing the customer’s share of the category allows us to allocate an appropriate level of preparation and investment, with a realistic view of both upside potential and consequences of getting it wrong…

Customer’s share of our business (£, %)

Again, knowing that a customer accounts for 15%, rather than 1% of our business has to help us to prioritise all aspects of the relationship and quantify the impact on our sales and net profit, for the whole team...

Our share of their business (£, %)

Realising that we account for less than 0.001% of the customer's business can explain some of the issues with getting appointments, and difficulties in making the buyer listen, but can help to reduce  arrogance-levels on the part of strong branded manufacturers attempting to break into a new channel...

Our share of their category (£, %)

However, when we have 20+% of a customer’s definition of a category, it is obviously useful to move the conversation quickly from share of business to share of category in order to restore our confidence and buyer-appeal.

Size of the deal for them (Sales, Gross Profit)

Only at this stage is it appropriate to calculate specific dimensions of the deal in terms of sales and gross profit. In other words, if a customer is buying £200,000 from us and resells for £250,000, making a 20% gross profit, this £50k limits on the size of the buyer’s potential concessions available for negotiation.

Size of the deal for us (Sales, Gross Profit)

Knowing that our ex-factory cost is 50% of the £200,000 sold to the buyer, tells us that we have a maximum pool of £100k in discretionary funds from which to make concessions, and can provide a basis for fair-share negotiation...  

If the above process still seems over-the-top for a ‘one-off’ deal, then going in blind will probably result in a ‘one-off’ outcome, adding to our overall uncertainty/stress-levels, and doing little to optimise the relationship in these already uncertain times.

As always, your call….

How can finance be used by NAMs, day-to-day?

Why bother?

If the public are becoming more financially astute, due in part to the banks’ slow motion devaluation of savers’ funds via the differential between CPI inflation at 4.2% and 3.2% rates on deposits (the result is a net outflow of 1% value…), coupled with the banks’ added ‘bonus’ of bailouts at the expense of the taxpayer, then perhaps NAMs might profit from applying the same financial insights in their day-jobs?


Real opportunities or not?

In fact, the real issue here is the extent to which there are genuine trade opportunities available in unprecedented times, and if so, what are the tools required in order to optimise those opportunities, faster than the opposition.

What do I need?

Being able to calculate and demonstrate the supplier’s direct impact on a customer’s financial performance, faster than other suppliers, consolidates that edge…

Using numbers from the customer’s latest annual reports engages the share-owning buyer, to the exclusion of any competitor awaiting a return to normal…

So what?

In today’s unprecedented times the only certainties are money, and the need for survival in supply and retail.  Ignorance of your own company accounts and an understanding of how they relate to the customer’s financial performance needlessly adds personal risk to the other unprecedented uncertainties affecting a NAM’s survival in the marketplace.  However, even a modicum of financial understanding can vastly improve the odds in your favour…

For a step-by-step approach finding opportunities in a customer’s latest annual report, see our latest checklist in Kamcity library 

Why Robert Wiseman Dairies was attractive to Müller

An investor’s view of Müller’s acquisition of RWD, and how a NAM can help

Stockopedia writes about investing from a ‘value’ perspective i.e. finding companies that are priced attractively, like RWD.

They explain a number of attraction-criteria including category leadership, prosperous/profitable, manageable gearing, long history, no threats to permanent earning power, and a sustainable business model, simply a short term problem of a milk price-war. For details on valuation of RWD see Stockopedia,

How A NAM can help 

In this type of situation NAMs can help their own companies by seeing their jobs in terms of how they affect ROCE performance (i.e Return On Capital Employed, the profit a company makes on the money tied up in a business)  An acceptable level of ROCE, say 15%+, can result in more credit from suppliers of packaging, ingredients etc, cheaper borrowing from banks, more clout with retailers, but especially autonomy and freedom from takeover…

Improving your ROCE 

ROCE is driven by Net Margin and Capital Rotation, so a NAM can help improve Net Margin by being able to negotiate better selling prices, lower discounts/promo allowances, lower selling and distribution costs, and driving volume. Capital rotation i.e Sales/stock can be improved by driving volume, getting customers to pay faster, and more accurate sales-forecasting (if you ‘over-forecast’ i.e. sell less than forecast, then the ‘spare’ stock is being carried around the system not earning, resulting in a dilution of margin).

Obviously NAMs do all of these things (?), but the key is to know why you do it, and their direct impact on company profitability, i.e. ROCE, resulting in long term sustainability of the business model, and a higher share price, thus making the company too expensive to take over…