Amazon ebook VAT advantage removed - back to level-playing-field competition?

According to The Guardian, Amazon is to be stripped of its huge tax advantage in the UK (VAT 20%) on the sales of ebooks after the European commission ordered Luxembourg (VAT 3%) to close a VAT loophole. Luxembourg will be forced to increase its VAT rate to 15% on EU digital sales. This was inevitable (see Kamblog) especially given Amazon’s 90% share of the UK ebook category.

In my opinion, what is more important for publishers and other suppliers to Amazon was a reference to base price equality in the original Guardian article…..   

Contract terms with Amazon
According to The Guardian, an Amazon contract they have seen says: "If the base price exceeds the base price … provided to a similar service then … the base price hereunder will be deemed to be equal to such lower price, effective as of the date such lower price comes into effect." In other words, if Amazon discover that a retail competitor is being given a lower price, they will apply that price to current dealings and claw back any difference, from the time the lower price was charged.

Like all retailers, we believe that Amazon are entitled to set and agree trading terms in advance and apply conditions that they will enforce where necessary. It is the responsibility of suppliers to ensure that they quantify the terms and implications of all deals with retailers before entering into contractual agreements...

Application of base-price-equality to all retailers, retrospectively...
In the case of Amazon’s ebook base-pricing comparison, the issue for all suppliers is even more important. There is nothing to prevent the same principle being applied to the rest of Amazon’s business, or indeed, to any retailer buying from suppliers.

Action for suppliers:

1. Check your base-price per customer, and do a numbers-based ‘what if’ on the lowest price being applied to your entire customer portfolio, retrospectively (its not going to go away)
2. Forget ‘trade secrecy’ and assume all customers know everything (remembering that it only takes one staff member…)
3. Check that a true-like-with-like comparison is being made, and be able to calculate and demonstrate your rationale (the numbers will count in the end...)
4. Find ways of lowering prices to customers to the same level for the same level-of-access to consumer, or find ways of terminating the ‘lowest price’ customer (pay the retailer for work done on your behalf)
5. In the meantime, ask for proof of lower prices elsewhere, to avoid the mistake of defending the wrong case, and thereby giving the retailer additional scope for claw-back (hear the buyer out, and answer the objection)

In other words, best to play fair with all customers, before you are forced to, and establish a defensible basis for fair-share negotiation via sustainable numbers…before you need to....

Premier Foods - joining up the dots in retrospect...

As you may remember, as long ago as the 5th October 2012, KamBlog analysed Premier Foods options and advised you to watch this space to see the dots joining up in retrospect… (Steve Jobs warned that you can't connect the dots in life by going forwards, it's only in retrospect that you begin to make sense of the bigger picture..)

Walking away from a £75m bread contract
Premier Foods’ decision not to renew their £75m own label bread contract with one of the major mults is all part of a move to reassess each part of its business and sell/walk-away when the figures don’t add up. This in turn is driven by a need to drive up the share price by improving its Return On Capital Employed (see KamBlog – Premier Foods).

Next moves
In a low margin, high overhead category, Premier now have to place the £75m with another mult on better terms, or suffer an increased overhead burden, probably resulting in sell-off of bread-related assets to restore profitability.

Meanwhile, by demonstrating  their willingness to walk away from unprofitable deals with retailers, Premier have done a favour for other suppliers, besides causing their share price to rise 4¾ - 6pc - to 83½p, yesterday.. voila!

Going back to the future
The key idea here is that these moves were obvious on the 5th October, to those NAMs that were prepared to explore the greater business context, and then attempt to anticipate the implications for their category and customer relationship. Running the what-if numbers then reveals the urgency…

As Steve Jobs proved many times, by using historical dot-joining to establish the big picture (including the numbers) he was able to anticipate future consumer needs and design accordingly…

Apple’s resulting output provides the evidence all around you...

‘Amazon makes UK publishers pay 20% VAT on ebook sales’ – the real issues!

According to an article in The Guardian, Amazon is apparently forcing British publishers to cover 20% VAT on ebook sales, even though the company must only pay 3% to Luxembourg where it is based.

At NamNews we are not in the business of either  praising or criticising retailers, merely attempting to clarify business relationships as a basis for fair-share relationships between suppliers and retailers.

How VAT works
Experienced NAMs will appreciate that in practice,  VAT is an on-cost, and is paid by the  shopper, i.e. in the case of an ebook selling at £10, VAT inclusive, the shopper is paying £1.67 in VAT, resulting in a net retail price of £8.33.
This VAT is the retailer’s output tax.

The retailer collects the VAT, and in turn pays the supplier/publisher the net price (allowing for retail margin etc) +VAT at 20% i.e. assuming a retailer’s margin of 30%, the retailer pays the supplier £5.83 + 20% VAT = £5.83 +£0.97 = £6.80.
The £0.97 is the retailer’s input tax.

The retailer subtracts their input tax from their output tax and pays the difference to the government. i.e. in the case above, the retailer pays the government £0.70.

International tax implications 
As you know, it is not the business of the supplier to ensure that the retailer pays its required VAT. That is a matter between the retailer and the VAT people. In the case of Amazon, the article suggests that they are collecting at the 20% rate and paying at 3%. This will inevitably become an issue for Amazon as the ebook sector grows and UK VAT authorities possibly attempt readjustment to UK rates and clawback.

The fact that suppliers are fulfilling their obligations by paying at the full UK VAT rate means that they will have no issue with the VAT authorities.

This means that publishers can focus on optimising the ebook pricing model that, thanks to Amazon scale and easy-buying facility, has allowed ebooks to be charged at approximately the same price as hard-copies, rather than what would be justified by the almost zero incremental production costs of the electronic versions.

How publishers can negotiate  with Amazon
No-one is in any doubt that Amazon are tough negotiators, with increasing power to use their consumer-gateway role as a vital route to shoppers. Any extreme abuse of this privilege will eventually mean more trouble with the competition authorities than is worthwhile, despite the additional revenue...

Increasing supplier leverage
Suppliers/publishers can 'even-the-balance' by opening up direct ebook access to the ultimate reader, remembering that fulfillment, unlike with CDs and DVDs, can all be handled in-house, providing they make purchasing as simple as Amazon’s 1-click process, and a no-quibbles returns policy....

This means suppliers can use ebooks-direct to add value and personalise the offering (author insights etc) in ways that are probably not yet on Amazon's agenda....
The resulting say 30/70 split in direct/Amazon sales would surely provide some leverage in negotiation, rather than divert energies to concerns about Amazon’s tax issues..

Meanwhile, food NAMs might usefully contemplate the online implications of food-VAT being introduced….

Sainsbury's changes to non-foods payment terms...the bottom-line impact

According to The Telegraph, Sainsbury’s have extended its standard payment terms to 75 days for all non-food suppliers. In some cases, this will mean suppliers waiting more than twice as long for payment. In the unlikely event that a supplier decides to withhold supplies, or even attempts to negotiate a compromise, it is vital that such decisions be fact-based.

This means calculating the cost of the change in terms along the following lines: (check through the method with your finance people, and substitute your own figures)

Assumptions: 
- Supplier has a net margin of 7.5% and sells £5m per annum to the retailer, payment in 40 days, net
- Cost of borrowing is 8%

Cost to supplier of giving 40 days credit:
- Number of times per annum the supplier is paid, on 40 days        = 365/40
                                                                                                    = 9 times, approx.
- Average amount owed by retailer                                               = £5m/9
                                                                                                    = £556k i.e. a permanent loan to the retailer, interest-free
      -    Cost of borrowing to give 40 days free credit                     = £556k/100 x 8
                                                                                                     = £44.5k

Cost to supplier of payment extension to 75 days: i.e. 35 days extra
- Number of times per annum the supplier is paid, on 75 days        = 365/75
                                                                                                    = 4.9 times, approx.
- Average amount owed by retailer                                               = £5m/4.9
                                                                                                    = £1,020k i.e. a permanent loan to retailer, interest-free
- Cost of borrowing to give 75 days free credit                              = £1,020k/100 x 8
                                                                                                    = £81.6k
- Therefore cost of additional 35 days                                           = £81.6k - £44.5k
                                                                                                    = £37.1k

For the supplier, this is the equivalent of incremental sales of £494.7k (i.e. £37.1k / 7.5 x 100, a 9.9% increase in sales).

In other words, to maintain the status quo in a fair-share relationship, the supplier needs a concession from the retailer of £37.1k, or will suffer a drop in net margin on the retailer’s business from 7.5% to 6.8% (i.e. £5m/100 x 7.5 = £375k - £37.1k = £337.9k/£5m x 100 = 6.8%)

Why not run the numbers on your business, using your figures in the above calculation, to explore the impact on your bottom line, and re-assess your negotiation  strategies…?

Optimising your E-xperience via the IGD’s: Trading in a Digital World. (Part 1)

With almost 250 delegates, all four major online grocers, Tesco, Asda, Sainsbury’s and Ocado, together with some key suppliers, shared online updates, plans and joint-opportunities with a multifunctional audience that buzzed throughout the session, and not only via text-questions to the speakers...

However, apart from being a great idea-source (I managed to limit my note-taking to 8 pages, more in later postings), the presentations touched on some of the key issues affecting the development of online for both suppliers and retailers that are perhaps not aired sufficiently, but have material impact on personal development within the supplier-retailer environment…

‘The poor relative syndrome’
Essentially, in common with many new business initiatives, online can be a small but patently important development for a company. In a flat-line market online provides high-growth, innovation, novelty and excitement compared with the traditional business. However, it is often seen as a relatively high risk diversion, with many risking a ‘wait and see’ mode. In other words, if successful, online will have many parents, whilst if it fails, it will morph into an orphan. As such, online tends to be insufficiently funded and hampered by inadequate resourcing, especially in uncertain times...

The need to sell from within…
For these reasons, much depends on the drive and enthusiasm of those involved in online to constantly ‘sell’ the online idea and achieve results by persuasion, taking on full responsibility, with little designated authority…(rather like the role of a traditional NAM, a resident expert in achieving change against impossible odds...)

Selling is vital to ensure that online is integrated into mainstream business strategies, taking each of the key business functions and ensuring there is an online equivalent, with dedicated personnel, all sharing the opportunities and insights, enthusiastically, in the face of traditional priorities, envy and deep down, fear of change.

How to sell the online idea
Realistically, online will need to be sold, and sold convincingly by those who hope to make it yield its full potential, fast…

In other words, think of your company as a reluctant buyer, leaving you but two ways of attracting attention of the rest of the business – curiosity and fear. By making a ‘buyer’ of ideas curious to hear more or fearful of inaction, we destabilise their status quo, leaving them susceptible to change.

Fortunately the novelty of online provides enormous scope for making colleagues curious, whilst the continuing downward spiral of categories such as CDs, DVDs, Games, Magazines and Newspapers provides ample evidence of the dangers of inadequate corporate response to emerging technologies….

Keep in mind that online supporters in retail have similar issues
A key point of the conference for me was that colleagues in online retail share the same in-house issues. In other words, you will find your equivalent within your major customer needs support and can assist in return, in helping online realise its full potential for suppliers and retailers.

For me this was demonstrated by the fact that each retailer ended their presentation with specific steps on how to optimise the online supplier-retailer relationship, encouraging supplier-colleagues to find ways of innovating within a new online retail environment, signalling a willingness to identify and implement genuine fair-share synergies with like-minded suppliers.

Missing E-opportunities?
To avoid further delay, it is now time to play catch-up by attending events like the IGD digital session, and helping your traditional colleagues come to terms with how fast the E-food train is already travelling...

We may be some years away from a ‘beam me up, Scotty’ facility, but in the meantime, there is little harm in exploring appropriate ‘what-if’s’ for your business model…

Meanwhile, why not go online and have an E-xtatic weekend, from the NamNews team!  

Walmart bases training on British military academies!

According to People Management, Walmart has turned to British military leadership training expertise at Sandhurst, Lympstone and the Ministry of Defence’s Staff College to speed up the development of its managers in America.

However, before eager NAMs reschedule their weekend leisure, the retailer’s leadership training does not include assault courses or shooting exercises, instead it emulates other areas of military academy learning.

Promoting on performance, the academy also works to push people beyond their current capabilities, so attendees are not just trained for their current job, they are trained for the next rank up and the one beyond that and for two more levels beyond that.

In other words, rather like our NamNews training, where even new NAMs are treated like CEOs, as many of today’s ROCE-based leaders will confirm, by personal example…

Coupon promotions in uncertain times, how Risk Intelligence can help

News that coupon redemption is increasing and moving up the social and economic scales may call to mind that coupons have been known to have been ‘too successful’, on this the 20th anniversary of the Hoover Free Flights fiasco. Those with long memories will recall when Hoover's free flights promotion was launched to a wide-eyed British public in August 1992, it seemed too good to be true. Over the next 21 months, many Hoover customers discovered it was. It ended up costing the company £48m…

Anticipating coupon redemption-rates is but one of the uncertainties a NAM needs to be able to factor into the day-job and sleep nights.

There is a special kind of intelligence for dealing with risk and uncertainty. It doesn’t correlate with IQ and most psychologists fail to spot it  because it is found in a disparate group of people such as weather forecasters, professional gamblers and hedge-fund managers…

A new book, Risk Intelligence: How to live with uncertainty by Dylan Evans , can be a NAM’s guide to the twilight zone of probabilities and speculation, a DIY tool to making decisions in all aspects of the role.

Four Steps to Calculating Probability
Essentially, risk intelligence is about having the right amount of certainty, and Dylan outlines four mental steps in estimating a probability and when assessing the truth or falsehood of a statement:

1. First take stock of what you know about the issue (identify the bits of information you already possess that may bear on the issue)
2. Next, for each bit of information, decide (a) whether it makes the statement more or less likely, and (b) by how much it affects the probability that you are correct
3. The outcome of the process should be a hunch or feeling, the strength of which varies according to your degree of belief
4. Finally, translate this feeling into a number that expresses that degree of certainty (use % i.e. 65% certain that this is the way forward)

It helps to distinguish Risk Intelligence, a purely intellectual ability, from Risk Appetite, an emotional trait, more to do with how comfortable you are with taking risks. Risk Appetite governs how much risk you want to take, while risk intelligence involves being aware of how much risk you are actually taking… 

The book goes on to help readers improve their risk intelligence, think by numbers, make use of probabilities (the 100 percent rule), and even evaluate betting odds... In fact, with the right degree of application, the book will point you at everything a NAM needs to help cope with unprecedented times, or even anticipate the outcome of promotions…

In short, it debugs the process of using numbers and probabilities to clarify your thinking, helping you to risk excelling in the day-job, while others are unaware of the risk they are actually taking by awaiting a return to the ‘risk-free’ days of twenty years ago..

Online retailing: Killing the killer-charge at checkout…

News that the OFT are ordering the removal of unexpected charges at online checkout, should not be news, and above all should not be necessary...

Alienating the first-time shopper
The issue does not affect the regular online user, who arrives at checkout knowing all the downside, may grumble at the extras, but completes the purchase.

The real problem is the fact that the online retailer, having gone to the trouble, expense and use of price to attract the suspicious, dithering first-user, and drawn them through the hoops of the online purchasing process, suddenly at checkout presents a surprise extra charge that causes them to hit the cancel-button and head for the shops...

Repeat purchase as the only KPI
Any brand owner can confirm that the upfront expense of attracting a new user can only be recovered if that consumer requires less persuasion to come back a second time, and may break-even on a spontaneous  third visit to the brand.  ‘Telling their friends’ may happen if the brand experience exceeds expectations…

Amazon, the real competitor
Apart from keeping in mind that if the OFT are getting involved, it is already too late, online retailers hoping to survive should re-check their biggest competitor, and hopefully conclude that Amazon’s entire offering is based on comfort, trust and re-assurance for every user, with 1-click purchase a reward for coming back a second time…

Amazon are not growing at 26% CAGR by accident, or by attempting to charge shoppers more than they bargained for…