Tesco heading to a 25% market share...?

If a 25% market share represents a point where a retailer begins to attract the negative attentions of consumers, suppliers, special interest groups, politicians and media, this may result in a defensive mode where more energy is spent excusing behaviour than growing the business.

Given the global potential for Tesco, a return to a 25% UK market share could represent a long term opportunity for the company and its NAMs…

Positive:

• Tesco would still dominate its home market, a key criterion for global players
• Media criticism would possibly divert to other retailers growing into the space
• Tesco could focus on doing what is right for markets home and abroad, better than the competition
• UK emphasis could be placed on optimising domestic profitability to fund global growth
• Stabilised UK supplier-partnerships could be leveraged for global risk management & joint profitability

Minus:

• A high-grade domestic team would be required in order to keep the UK share ‘on hold’ at 25%
• …meaning less glory for UK managers vs their overseas colleagues
• Any UK ‘distractions’ would threaten Tesco’s ability to optimise global opportunities, meaning ‘whiter than white’ performance would be a key requirement

Interesting:

• Patently over-spaced in large scale outlets, Tesco could use that space to focus on taking shopper-marketing and in-store theatre to their limits
• The resulting learnings would mean that their UK outlets could become test-beds for execution overseas
• UK NAMs with high quality and innovative ideas could optimise potential with what could become the best retailer in town
• …a stepping-stone to global opportunity?

In other words, Tesco and their NAMs might be better off aiming for a 25% share of every global market than trying to prop up an unsustainable 30% share in the UK...

Besides which, a 25% grocery share would still allow Tesco to optimise all of those non-grocery channels in the UK, below the radar…