Wednesday 8 June 2022

Irish Grocery Sales Fall As Inflation Reaches Nine-Year High

The latest take-home grocery figures for Ireland have revealed that sales in the country fell by 6.5% in the 12 weeks to 15 May 2022, latest figures from Kantar.

The drop came as grocery inflation hit 5.5%, the first time it has risen above 5% since August 2013.

David Berry, Managing Director for Kantar Worldpanel Ireland, said: “Food and drink prices are continuing to climb, and the impact of this on grocery budgets is now unavoidable for many people. Our research shows rising cost of living is a key concern for 81% of Irish consumers. A staggering 62% expect that they will have to cut back on the amount of food they buy in response to current prices. We’ll be seeing the effects of inflation for months to come.”

Shoppers are shifting their behaviour to manage the cost of buying food, including by turning to cheaper alternatives. Berry explained: “People are now making four fewer trips to the supermarket on average per month than they were this time last year.

Similarly, brands made up more than 50% of grocery sales in 2020 and 2021 … brands’ share of grocery spend dropped to 49% in the latest 12 week period, equivalent to a €29m fall.”

Despite the tough circumstances, people have been enjoying the recent warmer weather and are looking ahead to the summer months, with Berry noting: “Sales of BBQ meats, like burgers and sausages, and prepared salads have increased by 2% and 8%, respectively, in the latest 12 week period. Soft drinks have also seen a 5% boost this period, equating to an extra €5m through the tills.

It’s likely that sales of these items will keep rising as we make the shift to more summery foods and leave the soups and stews behind, but prices are going up too. A trip to the supermarket to buy BBQ meat, salad, and soft drinks will now cost €1 more on average in total than it would have last year.”

For the sixth consecutive period this year, Dunnes has retained its position as Ireland’s largest grocer, with a 22.3% market share. Berry continued: “Dunnes seems to be recovering well from the challenging COVID-19 period. The retailer’s current market share is now 1.2 percentage points higher than May 2021, boosted by 98,000 new shoppers in the latest 12 week period.”

Tesco is now slightly ahead of SuperValu in the race for second place, each accounting for 21.9% and 21.7% of the market. Tesco benefited from shoppers visiting the store more often, bucking the general market trend and allowing it to move just ahead of SuperValu.

Lidl holds a 13.1% market share this period. Aldi follows 0.9 percentage points behind, holding a 12.2% market share.

NamNews Implications:
  • Inflation at 5.5% still has a bit to go.
  • i.e. try what-ifs re 10% and assess the implications for your categories.
  • “A staggering 62% expect that they will have to cut back on the amount of food they buy in response to current prices”, says it all…
  • P.S. Note Lidl growth vs 2019…

No comments: