Thursday 5 January 2023

Inflation Drives Record Christmas In Grocery Sector; Aldi Remains Fastest Growing Supermarket

Latest Kantar data shows take-home grocery sales rose 9.4% to a record £12.8bn in 4 weeks to 25 December, via inflation vs volume. Over 12 weeks, up 7.6%, with discounters continuing to outperform the mults. Whilst value sales were up £1.1bn in December vs Christmas 2021, volumes down 1%.

“This story played out across the traditional Christmas categories,” said Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar. “For example, value sales of mince pies soared by 19%, but volume purchases barely increased at all.”

Annual grocery price inflation 14.4% in December, down from 14.6% in November: “This is the second month in a row that grocery price inflation has fallen, raising hopes that the worst has now passed".

High inflation impacting how and what people buy.

Kantar: consumers buying supermarkets’ O/L with sales up 13.3%, vs 4.7% increase in branded lines.

McKevitt said: “The British supermarket sector is more competitive than ever and the grocers are keen to retain customers by offering their own festive alternatives, emphasising premium own-label.

Sales grew 10.2% to hit a £700m first time. Tesco’s Finest remains largest premium own-label, with Aldi and Lidl the biggest contributors to the premium own label sector’s overall growth in 2022.”

December, the mults' busiest month since the start of the pandemic - shop visits up 5.2% YOY.

Online grocery value sales up 4% YOY. Online’s total share vs Christmas 2021, down 0.6 percentage points to 11.6%.

Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda and Morrisons grabbed two-thirds of all spending.

Asda up 6.4%, Sainsbury’s and Tesco up 6.2% and 6.0% respectively, Morrisons down 2.9%

Aldi was the fastest-growing up 27.0%, market share up from 7.7% in 2021 to 9.1%. Lidl’s up 23.9%, market share up 0.9 percentage points to 7.2%.

Iceland’s sales grew by 10.2%, frozen poultry rising by 15% and frozen prepared foods by 18%. This pushed Iceland’s market share to 2.5%. Sales at Waitrose continued to weaken, down 0.7%, with its market share slipping from 5.1% to 4.7%.

NamNews Implications
  • ‘volumes were actually down by 1% year-on-year’ says it all for realists.
  • Added to which, many consumers were having a last hurrah... …before knuckling down to the realities of January’s demands on their purses.
  • Meanwhile “…value sales of mince pies soared by 19%, but volume purchases barely increased at all.”
  • i.e. the impact of inflation needs drumming into those in the business too easily mislead by top-line figures.
  • The moves to own-label and the discounters are again confirmed.
  • (with Aldi & Lidl continuing to grow share at the expense of the mults and Waitrose)
  • And will not easily be reversed...
  • In other words, it is hopefully obvious that suppliers planning to stay outside the discounter channel...
  • ...are at risk.

#MarketShares #OwnLabel #Discounters

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