Tuesday 23 May 2023

Grocery Inflation Inches Lower

Despite recent suggestions that cost pressures are easing, latest Kantar data confirms that grocery price inflation remains exceptionally high.

However, it did fall for the second month in a row, inching down from 17.3% to 17.2% for the four weeks to 14 May. Take-home grocery sales rose by 10.8% on the same period as last year, with the discounters continuing to outperform the traditional Big Four supermarkets.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar: “The drop in grocery price inflation, which is down by 0.1 percentage points on last month’s figure, is without doubt welcome news for shoppers but it is still incredibly high – 17.2% is the third fastest rate of grocery inflation we’ve seen since 2008, an extra £833 to annual grocery bills”.

Savvy shoppers are choosing more own-label goods, growing by 15.2% this month, compared to 8.3% for branded. But the brand premium gap is narrowing in most stores via loyalty discounts.

McKevitt continued: “In the fierce contest for market share, eyes have been on the dairy aisle in particular, where the average cost of four pints of milk has come down by 8 pence since last month. Prices are still much higher than they were 12 months ago, at £1.60 currently versus £1.30 last year, but retailers know just how important it is to offer even small savings on staple products like milk to get customers through the door.”

Waitrose benefited from a substantial uplift in the week of the coronation, with sales up 4.8% over the 12 wks, its highest growth since April 2021.

Aldi was the fastest-growing this month, with sales increasing 24.0%. Lidl’s sales rose 23.2%, and together accounted for 17.8% of the market.

Asda won back market share to 13.9% after sales grew 10.6%. Sales were boosted by its Just Essentials range, with nearly two in five Asda baskets containing at least one of these value items this May.

Morrisons recorded a third consecutive period of sales growth, although the increase was more muted versus others at just 0.6%. The grocer relaunched its ‘More Reasons to Shop’ strapline yesterday as part of its efforts to win back shoppers.

Sales increased by 8.9% at Tesco, with growth across its convenience stores, large format supermarket and online channels. Sainsbury’s sales rose by 10.5%, and it held market share steady at 14.8%.

NamNews Implications:

  • Inflation of 17.2% is still off-putting for brands…
  •  …but encouraging for own-label and the discounters.
  • i.e. Aldi & Lidl combined share of 17.8%…
  • …and growing at 24%.
  • And own-label growing a 2x the rate of brands.
  • These stats raise two essential questions for branded suppliers:
  • How to safely optimise own-label potential?
  • How to find ways of optimising Aldi & Lidl traffic?
  • These two options are becoming too big to ignore.
  • On any count…
#MarketShare #Discounters #OwnLabel

No comments: