Tesco Sees Jump In Market Share As Consumers Shop Little And Often Amid Rising Temperatures And Prices

 Tesco Sees Jump In Market Share As Consumers Shop Little And Often Amid Rising Temperatures And Prices

Kantar Latest: Grocery footfall a five-year high (4 weeks to 15 June, take-home sales up 4.1% vs 2024, jump in shopping frequency despite grocery price inflation 4.7% highest since February 2024, vs previous month 4.1%

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar: “Shoppers made 490m trips to the supermarket over latest month, averaging almost 17 per British household, highest we’ve recorded vs March 2020”.

However, rise in frequency balanced out by a drop in average trip spend, ( down by three pence to £23.89).

McKevitt added: “Consumer concerns re price are continuing, and this is reflected in the figures. Sales of own-label ranges grew at 4.2% this month, ahead of branded lines, as shoppers looked to balance their budgets. Deals also remain an important tool for retailers to offer value, and the proportion of spending on promotion stepped up to 28.8% this period.”

Overall grocery volumes fell 0.4% in last 4 wks, first y-on-y decline this year. Kantar suggested that a small part of this fall could be down to changing health priorities, including growing use of GLP-1 weight loss drugs ( 4 in 100 UK households in Great Britain now including at least one GLP-1 user, almost twice vs 2024). Four in five of the users Kantar surveyed say they plan to eat fewer chocolates and crisps, nearly 3 in 4 intend to cut back on biscuits

Ocado fastest-growing grocer, sales up 12.2% in 12 wks to 15 June 2025 (more frequent visits to its website, strong performance in London and Southern England, market share 1.9%.

Traditional grocers:
Lidl fastest growing at 11.2% (3rd consec month double-digit) share 8.1%
Aldi share 10.9%, sales up 6.5%.
Tesco sales up 7.0%, share 28.1%.
Sainsbury’s share 15.2%, sales up 5.7%.
Morrisons’ grocery share slipped to 8.4% after spending in its stores only up 2.2%.
Asda’s share fell to 11.9%, till-sales down 1.7% vs same period 2024, albeit an improving trend in growth over the summer months.
Waitrose sales up 5.5% – its best result since March 2021
M&S grocery sales up 12.0% ( cyber attack recovery)

NamNews Implications:
* The jump in shopping frequency (‘highest Kantar recorded since March 2020’) could also be a reflection of the tendency to shop around.
* Switching to own-label equivalents (sales up 4.2%) continues…
* …carrying with it the risk that ‘satisfied’ switchers might stick with the habit…
* …given the smaller-than-expected compromise.
* Lidl (sales up 11.2%) and Aldi (sales up 6.5%) now have a combined share of 19.0% (!).
* Tesco power on (sales up 7%, share 28.1%) and Sainsbury’s (sales up 5.7%, share 15.2%)
* i.e. Tesco-Sainsbury’s and Aldi-Lidl have a combined share of 62.3%…
* …surely representing a continuing threat to Morrisons and Asda’s recovery ambitions.
* Maybe time for suppliers to rebalance retailer trading priorities?
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