Saturday, 9 December 2023

Trust In The Brand, A Key Casualty Of Lockdown Fallout…

Given that a key casualty of Lockdown fallout was the consumer’s loss of trust in almost everything, their loss of faith in brands should come as no surprise.

Apart from the obvious pressures of cost of living increases honing their super-savvy skills, causing them to be satisfied with nothing less than demonstrable value for money, and making them supersensitive to the most subtle of shrinkflation moves. Then, despite the ‘reassurances’ of letter-of-the-law statements on the pack, they prefer to rely on spirit-of-the-law perception in their judgement of brand trustworthiness… Therefore, the fact that the pack copy clearly states that quantity contained therein, the damage to consumer perception (spirit-of-the-law) is caused on opening the pack.

Thus, trust that has taken years to build is dismissed in a careless attempt to disguise a price increase. In other words, the consumer’s confident reliance on the character, ability, strength, expectation, faith, hope, assurance, expectation and certainty or truth of the brand has been compromised…

Consumers like to outsource their thinking and ideally their decision-making. In other words, they prefer to rely on guidance from experts i.e. they effectively delegate their money matters to the banks, their politics to the government, their health to the medics, and legal issues to the lawyers. The past three years have changed all that…

Consumers that have survived Lockdown fallout have learned the hard way that they have to think for themselves, relying on common sense and gut feeling. But critical thinking takes time and effort, and is possibly reserved for ‘more important‘ issues like coping with cost of living pressures, job uncertainty and prioritising spending. ‘Deciding’ which brand is best for them can seem to be easier delegated to a trusted influencer, instead of making a systematic evaluation of alternatives available.

In other words, deciding on a definition of real need, selecting, scoring and ranking the four criteria of Product, Price, Presentation and Place in assessing available options. Having decided on a suitable brand (delivering more than it says on the tin, every time), not having to second-guess every element of the offering, relying on spirit-of-the-law, rather than letter-of-the-law assurances, it becomes progressively easier to stick with the brand until performance drops below expectation, rather than start an entirely new process of re-assessing available options in terms of meeting one’s needs…

A key component of trust in the brand is brand loyalty, a long-term willingness to repeatedly purchase a favoured brand without the need to second-guess the contents of the offering. As you know, the main reason that brand loyalty is so important to profitability is that the relative cost of encouraging the consumer back to the brand decreases with each repeat purchase i.e. persuading a loyal user to buy again is far less expensive that encouraging a new user to try the brand.

Essentially, given the high cost of attracting a consumer to the brand and ensuring adequate trial, the consumer’s first purchase usually represents a loss to the brand owner. A repeat sale to a satisfied customer still requires some inducement, meaning that the second sale is hopefully made at a lower cost, possibly breaking even.

In fact, it is only when a doubly satisfied consumer returns to the brand a third time with minimal or no inducement that profit is made. Thus it is imperative that consumer expectations are managed, met and even exceeded in order that we can hope to optimise a consumer’s lifetime value.

It goes without saying that anything that causes the consumer to feel ‘short-changed’ places this fragile trust in jeopardy and risks delivering a ‘well-trained’ consumer into the arms of a rival… However, the loss of a regular user represents but a small part of the real risk in disappointing a loyal consumer. The real damage is caused when the ‘tell a friend’ process kicks in.

As you know, in brand marketing a consumer’s reaction to brand experience can be fairly predictable. In other words, ‘please me and I will tell one friend, disappoint me and ten friends will hear of my dissatisfaction’. However, with access to social media by an aggrieved savvy consumer, the 1:10 numbers can be multiplied by ten, a hundred or even tens of thousands in the hands of a well-connected influencer-consumer…

As you know, brand loyalty is measured through customer retention, customer lifetime value, and customer satisfaction surveys, but it completes the profit jigsaw by optimising brand equity, the financial value of a brand.

Given that brand equity provides a means of calculating the financial value of a brand, brand equity also helps to justify a brand premium over rivals. It follows that any dilution of brand equity puts the brand at a disadvantage to rivals and reduces its competitive edge in the category. Moreover, when consumers trust a brand and find it relevant, even at a premium price, and even tell a friend, they are surely worth preserving…

Taking the market capitalisation of the firm, minus the value of its tangible assets, leaves us with the value of brand equity. So it can be seen that any dilution of brand equity lessens the value of the company in the market in providing security for borrowing and drives the cost of servicing debt.

Above are most of the reasons to never risk jeopardising the consumer’s trust in a brand. However, these are merely commonsense business reasons for ensuring the survival of the business. The real payoff from building and maintaining consumer trust in our brands comes from our potential ability to optimise one of the most radical developments in consumer persuasion, the emergence of Retail Media.

Whilst traditional media will probably hold on to its ability to build awareness of the brand, Retail Media’s ability to help us to access the brand’s consumer in the aisle, hand in pocket, ready to buy, will ultimately supplant traditional media in terms of effective persuasion of our consumer-shopper, based on a level of first-party data no traditional medium can aspire to… This Retail Media access enables us to encourage a brand-loyal to stick with the brand, discourage a switch to a rival or convert a dithering shopper into a purchaser.

Whilst the timing and accessibility of traditional TV has been driven past sell-by via emerging technology, it is Retail Media’s ability to measure the results of advertising on a Retail Media Network that delivers the knock-out punch…

For decades, advertisers have been using an old cliché to bemoan the fact they knew that 50% of their advertising was wasted, but unfortunately could not tell which half. Retail Media, by tracking a consumer’s behaviour all the way through the buying process and beyond, can now solve that problem.

Moreover, one of Retail Media’s leading advocates in the business will probably be your CFO, able at last to measure the return on investment of the money historically ‘wasted on advertising’…

However, Retail Media raises key issues and questions for the supplier:
  • Who owns Retail Media?
  • Who owns Trade Investment?
  • Advertising execution: Traditional Agency vs Retail Media Agency?
  • Who negotiates with the retailer? Sales/Marketing? eComm?
  • Who co-ordinates omni-channel messages?
These issues need to be resolved if only to help both supplier and retailer to optimise the potential benefits of Retail Media, done properly…

Patently, the incorporation of Retail Media will take some bedding in, but its momentum is already unstoppable. Given the inevitable development of Retail Media, it is clearly imperative that consumer trust in the brand be preserved at all costs.

In other words, instead of having to use some of our traditional media spend to win back a disappointed consumer and re-educate them about the merits of our brand vs. rival offers, spend that could have gone to creating awareness among non-users, we can instead use this media money to better effect in the aisle.

It is all a matter of Trust….

Tuesday, 14 November 2023

Avon To Open First Physical Stores

Avon, the cosmetics and personal care brand which has traditionally been sold via a direct-selling model, is set to open its first-ever physical stores in the UK.

The 137-year-old brand has previously relied on an army of door-to-door sales reps to demonstrate and sell its products. However, the pandemic accelerated Avon’s shift to online sales.

The company is now planning to roll out a bricks & mortar format in the UK, Brazil and South Africa. It already has 63 stores in Turkey, growing rapidly over the last three years.

Avon’s Chief Executive Angela Cretu described the move as an “exciting new chapter” for the brand, with it looking to follow women “wherever they spend their time”. She added: “Women like to touch and experience the product and have that joy of seeing all the colours available.”

The first stores in the UK are expected to open over the next couple of months in “neighbourhood communities” rather than on traditional high street locations. They will be “mini beauty boutiques” run by sales representatives as franchises. The stores will feature about 150 products, with the full range available through the sales representative.

Retail analyst Natalie Berg noted that the Avon brand remained “a little dated” but suggested that the opening of physical stores could be beneficial for the company.

“You can’t overestimate the power of human touch and the community you get in a physical store environment,” she said, adding that this was particularly true for beauty products.

Berg stated that Avon would need to get its in-store technology right in order to compete with leading brands that have invested heavily in virtual and augmented reality. However, she said that local stores could have a “halo effect” by helping customers find products they later continue buying from sales reps and online.

Avon made its debut on UK high streets last month via a partnership with Superdrug. The health & beauty retailer is stocking over 150 of Avon’s make-up, skincare and fragrance products in 100 stores, with additional items available online. From 27 November, the partnership will be expanded to hundreds more stores with plans to eventually make Avon products available through Superdrug’s entire chain of almost 800 outlets.

Avon was acquired in 2019 by Natura &Co, the Brazilian beauty group that also owns The Body Shop.

NamNews Implications:

  • If Avon can continue their consumer-product ‘intimacy’ instore…
  • …they will represent something different in cosmetic selling.
  • ‘Avon local stores could have a “halo effect” by helping customers find products they later continue buying from sales reps and online’
  • Fingers crossed…
hashtag

Thursday, 14 September 2023

Lidl GB Swings To Annual Loss Amid Battle To Keep Prices Down


Lidl has revealed that its business in Britain swung to a loss in its last financial year after battling to keep prices low in the face of rising costs “across the board”.Over the 52 weeks to 28 February 2023, the discounter posted a pre-tax loss of £75.9m against a profit of £41.1m the previous year. Underlying earnings (EBIT) fell from £79m to £28.5m.

Lidl noted that it had invested over £100m in keeping down during the cost of living crisis, helping it attract an additional 1.4 million shoppers. Its market share during the period increased from 6.1% to 7.1% – the fastest growth experienced by the discounter in the past five years.

The company opened 50 new stores during the year and invested heavily in staff pay and expanding its distribution network. This included building Lidl’s largest Regional Distribution Centre (RDC) in the world, which officially opened in Luton earlier this month following a £300m investment.

“We’ve always had a clear commitment to offer the best value to our customers, and that is a promise we will always keep, even in uncertain economic times,” said Ryan McDonnell, CEO of Lidl GB.

“Alongside preserving this price promise, rewarding our people and maintaining long-term relationships with our suppliers will always be a priority. As a privately-owned business, we have the ability to make decisions that we know will have immediate benefits for our people, customers and suppliers and long-term benefits for our business.”

He went on to say: “The entire retail market has seen inflation, and we are no exception. However, for us, what is important is that our price gap to the traditional supermarkets is as strong as it has ever been. We’ve invested in keeping our prices low for customers in what has been a very challenging year for most and, with many more customers flooding through our doors each day, our ambition is to ensure that every single household has access to high quality, affordable food at their local Lidl store.”

Next year will mark 30 years of Lidl in Britain, with the business now operating over 960 sites and 14 distribution centres. McDonnell stated that there was “no ceiling on our ambitions for the next 30 as we see the potential for hundreds of new stores”.

Last week, Aldi opened its 1,000th store in the UK and outlined plans to open 500 more.

NamNews Implications:
  • A key issue has to be the extent to which Lidl operations in other countries are prepared to fund UK losses at their expense…
  • That said, discounters in the UK are on a roll and global Lidl may be prepared to trade off share growth vs. local discontent.
  • i.e. Lidl has to fuel available growth…
  • …and according to their management, this investment will continue.
  • i.e. there was “no ceiling on our ambitions for the next 30 as we see the potential for hundreds of new stores”.
  • Address your Lidl strategies accordingly…
#Discounters #Aldi #Lidl #Share

Thursday, 7 September 2023

Aldi Opens 1,000th UK Store With Plans For 500 More

 


Aldi has today opened its 1,000th store in the UK, nearly 33 years after opening its first in Stechford, Birmingham.

Announcing the opening of the milestone outlet in Woking, Surrey, the discounter committed to a new long-term target of 1,500 stores in the UK, with a pledge to invest billions of pounds in the economy.

Aldi is now the country’s fourth biggest grocery retailer, with one in every ten pounds spent in UK supermarkets going through its tills. It is also the fastest-growing supermarket, with its low-price mantra helping it attract even more customers during the cost of living crisis.

Aldi is on track to open another 20 new stores before the end of the year as part of a £1.3bn two-year investment plan.
The retailer stated that it was on the hunt for more locations across the UK to support its bid to open another 500 stores to reach its target of 1,500.

Aldi UK and Ireland CEO, Giles Hurley, commented: “Opening our 1,000th store is a huge milestone and wouldn’t have been possible without the hard work and dedication of our 40,000 incredible colleagues.

“Our popularity is growing, and there is huge demand for people to have an Aldi store near to them to increase shoppers’ access to our unbeatable prices.

“The next phase of our expansion will involve another 500 new stores over the coming years. It is a long-term target and is not a ceiling to our ambition to have an Aldi store close to everyone in the UK.”

NamNews Implications:
  • About time to include Aldi in your major customer portfolio, somehow…?
  • (Just assume a 50% increase in store numbers adds an equivalent amount to their UK market share)
  • Need any more inducement?
#AldiShare #AldiGrowth #DiscounterValue

Monday, 19 June 2023

Tesco Admits To ‘Tension’ With Suppliers


After it was revealed last week that Tesco had slipped down GSCOP compliance ranking, the retailer’s Chief Executive has blamed its fall on “fighting the fight” for consumers against inflation.

After posting robust first-quarter results on Friday, Ken Murphy is quoted by trade publication The Grocer as saying there was an “inevitable tension” with suppliers trying to get through cost price increase (CPI) requests and Tesco seeking to keep prices down.

Last week’s compliance ranking published by the Groceries Code Adjudicator (GCA) showed Tesco had fallen from second place to sixth. This was despite the cut-off for the survey coming before Tesco’s call on suppliers to start paying fulfilment fees for using its online and Booker wholesale services. The report by The Grocer noted that this recent move could result in Tesco falling even further down the table next year.

Murphy highlighted that the latest GCA ranking was “very, very tight,” adding: “We are only talking about a percentage point of two in the difference, and I’m really pleased that more than 95% of suppliers recognise we are compliant with the code.

“However, there is an inevitable tension between retailers and suppliers over the passing on of costs and how we fight the fight for customers.”

Meanwhile, Murphy offered further reasoning for its upcoming range reset programme, ‘Fit for Change’. This was announced last month and is set to be the biggest range review since predecessor Dave Lewis’s ‘Project Reset’.

Murphy told The Grocer: “We have seen a giant leap in the technology to enable us to predict what customers will buy and where. This review is all about making sure we combine minimising the cost of servicing those customers with making sure we optimise the range so our customers have enough of the product they want to find.”

NamNews Implications:
  • Consumers, retailers and suppliers are coping with Lockdown fallout.
  • The most fundamental and unprecedented business challenges, ever…
  • In principle, each member of the supply chain will try to isolate costs that can be passed to other parts of that supply chain.
  • (The Tesco fulfilment charge being just one example…)
  • Suppliers need to quantify the financial impact of every part of their supplier-retailer relationship…
  • …and negotiate like-with-like re the impact on respective P&Ls.
#CPIs #Costs #SupplierRetailerRelationships

Monday, 5 June 2023

"But I always do my Tesco Clubcard shopping on Saturday afternoon!"

A New Norm Shopping Behavioural Insight, from the NamNews Team!

Tesco, Hove - 03.06.2023 - 1430


Retail Shrink in the New Norm...

 


‘Petty’ theft by shoppers, increasingly out of real need, raises the issue of how the crime and criminal are tackled.

In other words, traditionally the thieving shopper was apprehended and charged with theft…

However, the New Norm adds another dimension, the moral issue of adding to a cash-strapped shopper’s burden by the shame of arrest, coupled with the stigma for a leading retailer of prosecuting its customers vs. the growing problem of appearing to be soft on crime, all the subject of tabloid headlines on a slow news day.

Only yesterday in my local Co-op, I witnessed a shopper under observation by the checkout operator and a security guard as he pretended to self-check a small bag of groceries…

[NamNews readers will not need reminding that to fully appreciate the combined pressure on a retailer, think about the cost in incremental sales when a shopper steals a £3.50 tin of beans from a retailer on a 3% Net Margin, the retailer needs to make incremental sales of £116.67 to recover the loss…]

Like a formation dance-move, the Security Guard moved close to the shopper, murmured quietly in his ear, took the shopping bag as the shopper grimaced and quietly left the store, all without missing a beat...

A pointer for retailers everywhere !

#Shrink #Theft #Poverty #CashStrappedConsumers

Tuesday, 23 May 2023

Proposed Contract Change To Hit Pay Of Asda Staff

Around 7,000 Asda workers are facing a potential cut in their pay as the debt-laden supermarket group seeks further cost savings.

The company is consulting with staff at 39 stores outside the M25 but near the capital about losing their 60 pence per hour ‘location supplement’ to bring their pay in line with its other stores around the country.

Asda’s owners, the Issa brothers and private equity firm TDR Capital, have been looking to make savings across the business after the cost of servicing the debt on their £7bn acquisition soared as interest rates rose. They are reportedly working on plans to merge the supermarket with their petrol forecourts business EG Group in a move designed to reduce their joint debt burden.

The GMB union claimed that those that do not agree to the pay change will have the new contract imposed on them and could be dismissed if they refuse to sign. The union, which represents many of the supermarket’s workers, stated that the proposed pay cut was “classic private equity slash and burn tactics” ahead of the potential £11bn merger with EG.

Nadine Houghton, GMB organiser, said: “Cutting the pay of 7,000 low-paid retail workers during a cost of living crisis is inexcusable.”

She also called on the government to block Asda’s proposed tie-up with EG, stating that it would be “bad for workers, bad for consumers and bad for the high street”.

Houghton added: “These slash and burn tactics, along with food and fuel price increases, will only ramp up if the merger goes ahead.”

In response, Asda stressed that no final decision had been made on the pay cut for the 7,000 staff, but it was considering making the change as none of its rivals paid a similar supplement in those areas.

A spokesperson said: “We are holding a collective consultation in a small number of stores outside the M25 where colleagues are currently paid a legacy location supplement.

“This supplement is out of line with the wider retail market and has created an anomaly where some Asda colleagues in stores that are close together are paid different rates. As part of this consultation, we are discussing a compensatory payment for colleagues in return for the removal of this location supplement, if the proposal goes ahead.”

NamNews Implications:
  • There could will be troubles ahead…
  • Especially given the assumption that an unanticipated rise in interest rates from 1% to 4.5%+…
  • …should be funded via workforce wages.
  • Although this is a different business model, the JLP reduction/non-payment of bonus will be a big demotivator.
  • …at least!

#Interest #DebtBurden #Inflation

Every little bit of availability helps…

Every little bit of availability helps…

(Tesco, Hove 1347 - Saturday 20/5/2023)


#Availability #SupplyChain #OOS


Leading Mayonnaise Brand Adopts Shrinkflation To Offset Higher Input Costs

Unilever’s Hellmann’s mayonnaise line has become the latest brand to adopt the shrinkflation tactic to counter increased production costs.

According to trade publication The Grocer, Tesco has stopped selling 800g jars of Hellmann’s Real and Light mayonnaise that used to sell for £3.60. This has been replaced with a smaller 600g variant with a higher shelf price of £3.75.

The report noted that the move means the leading mayonnaise brand is now 37.8% more expensive per 100g than it was previously when sold in 800g jars.

A spokesperson for Unilever is quoted by The Grocer saying: “Our Hellmann’s Real Mayonnaise jars are available in four sizes to suit varying shopper preferences and needs. This includes our 600g jar, which is available alongside our 800g, 400g and 200g jars.

“Although we are currently experiencing significant increases in input costs, including the costs of the quality ingredients used to make Hellmann’s mayonnaise, we will always try to absorb as much of the cost pressure ourselves and look for savings within our own business before passing on pricing to consumers.”

NamNews Implications:
  • Presumably, the price increases are being applied, pro rata across all sizes…
  • i.e. the loyal Hellmann’s user is being asked to take a 38.7% price increase…
  • …and has the options of switching to an alternative brand, an own label or a discounter.
  • (interesting to assess the cost of retrieval for those that vote with their feet…)
#Shrinkflation #PriceIncrease #CostOfLiving