Thursday, 26 June 2014

Walgreens-Boots, where next, when?

Walgreen Co, the largest U.S. drugstore operator, withdrew its profit and revenue forecasts for 2016 on Tuesday, saying it had yet to work out several aspects of its planned acquisition of European drug retailer Alliance Boots Holdings Ltd.

Walgreens, which bought 45% of Alliance Boots in 2012, and has an option to buy all of the Switzerland-based company in 2015, said it would update investors about the proposed purchase of the rest of the Europe's largest pharmacy chain owner and issue a new forecast by late July or early August. Combined synergies continue to generate savings albeit slightly lower than forecast, hence the withdrawal of the 2016 forecasts.

The real issue is the probability that Walgreens will respond to pressure from some shareholders to do a so-called "tax inversion" deal with Alliance Boots that would shift Illinois-based Walgreen's tax domicile overseas and reduce its tax bill. Their US tax rate is 36% and this would reduce to 21% if they transferred to Switzerland.

A possibility has to be consideration of availing of Ireland's tax rate of 12.5%.

However, to quote David McWilliams, the global ground has shifted and countries such as the US will not tolerate the wholesale looting of its corporate tax base and the countries that facilitate this behaviour.

This could mean that globally harmonized tax rates are on the way, but may take several years to implement.

Meanwhile, companies in Walgreens' position may choose to make a change sooner, rather than later.

For this reason, suppliers might usefully anticipate the possibility of Walgreens completing their acquisition of Boots earlier than the 2015 deadline... 

Time for NAMs to complete some what-ifs on a 2014 move, and act accordingly?

Wednesday, 25 June 2014

Deductions - the last retail frontier?


                                                                                                                pic: GCA Survey by YouGov

Given that margins, cost & selling prices, credit periods and trade investment have hopefully been pushed to their limits, Deductions remain as the final route to retail profitability enhancement.

With over 70% of deductions representing pricing and promotion issues and resulting deductions caused by misunderstanding, misinterpretation and time lags in communicating trade deals, it is vital that suppliers avoid the inevitability of settlements in favour of the customer by reducing process "disconnects," which cause preventable deductions i.e. supplier doing things one way, and customer another…

Deductions have to remain a supplier-driven issue.

Whilst future legislation may focus on unauthorised deductions, suppliers that take collaborative steps with the retailer to reduce preventable deductions can have a significant impact on their bottom line:
  • Suppose a supplier has £3m in preventable deductions and a 5% net margin
  • Preventing £1m in deductions because of internal changes and improved processing of retail requirements will cause any saving to flow to the bottom line
  • A 5% margin means £1m saving is equivalent to £20m in incremental sales
Therefore, a supplier can achieve same financial effect of £20m in new sales without producing or shipping a single unit...

In other words, by identifying and agreeing to compatible policies and processes, supplier and customer can avoid all this non-productive paperwork, and produce increased profits for both.

Alternatively, why not wait until deductions reach US levels of 7% of your sales before elevating deductions-management to the No.1 agenda position it deserves...?

NB. Well worth checking through the full GCA survey for additional GSCOP insight

A hard lesson in CV precision at Myer Au: a tweak too far?

Apparently the retailer has sacked its newly appointed general manager of strategy and business development on his first day because of alleged discrepancies on his CV.

The claims appear to have included spells as managing director and vice-president of Asia Pacific for Zara, and key roles at Tesco China, Walmart and Homeworld...more on NamNews

In a world of total transparency, where even a little ‘month-slippage’ on a Linkedin profile can be validated, it is preferable for both parties to get CV details right at the point of job-application, and thereby avoid the job-holder nightmare where a performance-fault triggers the wisdom of corporate hindsight… 

Teen usage of 'social media' just in...


New research published in The Atlantic may cause you to challenge assumptions on what defines social media and its usage...

Worth drilling down for specific insights, but thoughts to ponder:
-  For young people, Facebook is the newspaper, and websites are the authors
-  Mobile attention is flowing to apps and away from homepages
-  Key challenge for digital publishers is making their content sharable in competition with other sites' content
-  Content is king, but distribution is the kingdom.....
Derek Thompson, The Atlantic

Tuesday, 24 June 2014

GSCOP in practice - Inaugural Groceries Code Adjudicator Conference

A view from the third row, for those who may have missed a trick by not attending…

Given the relatively low media profile and perceived supplier-retailer apathy re. matters GSCOP since its inauguration in 2009, it was good to participate in a revelatory catch-up at the GCA conference yesterday.

The first surprise was the fact that with upwards of 200 delegates, this inaugural conference occupied the main ‘IGD’ hall at the QE11 Conference Centre, Westminster.

The audience comprised a unique mix of supplier and retailer Code Compliance Officers, trade associations, legal practices, governmental and senior sales, not only from the UK, but equivalent groupings from Canada, Australia, New Zealand, The Netherlands, Ireland, Czech Republic and Norway.

In other words, a high level of interest in these first steps in optimising supplier-retailer relationships in one of the world’s most competitive markets, possibly serving as a template for adaptation abroad.

People came prepared to talk and share experiences and concerns, as evidenced by audience reaction to presentations from a combination of the GCA, British Brands Group, Code Compliance Officers from Tesco and Morrisons, emphasising the scope and opportunities of applying GSCOP in practice followed by an active Q&A session from an increasingly participative audience.

YouGov then presented the findings from the GCA-commissioned research to explore the views, experiences, attitudes, and expectations of suppliers in relation to the Code.

..and therein lay the second surprise... In an industry known for its low key, non-participative response to matters GSCOP, there were 574 responses to the survey – of which 528 were from a mix of direct and indirect suppliers, a ‘robust sample for this type of population’, to quote YouGov. Full details are available here
Christine Tacon presented the GCA Annual report summarising progress to date especially the agreement by major retailers to limit post–audit-recovery to three years, instead of the statutory six years allowed in UK law. This single step should reduce significantly the time, frustration and friction of trying to ‘re-negotiate’ promotional agreements six years in arrears.

The afternoon was devoted to a mix of four very interactive workshops dealing with Enforcement, Genesis of the Code, Success evaluation - survey follow-up  and Trade Associations discussions of supplier issues under the Code.

Details of most sessions are available here

On balance, a good-faith and successful series of initial steps aimed at building a productive basis for improved supplier-retailer relationships, evidenced by the animated discussions with new contacts during the breaks.

It could be now said that we have arrived at the end of the beginning for GSCOP, roll on next year’s conference…

Nice one, Christine….  

Friday, 20 June 2014

Costco for book-signings?

According to the BBC, Hillary Clinton signed copies of her new memoir at Costco last weekend, one of the many high-profile authors who now stop at the warehouse on their book tour.

The visits underscore the role of Costco as tastemaker in the book world (!). Malcolm Gladwell, author of The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference (i.e. "Ideas and products and messages and behaviours spread like viruses do") has been featured in Costco Connection.

Moreover, Gladwell and other authors like Tom Wolfe are also regular customers, for whom Costco is a place to hang out….

A small but influential market share?
Publishers Weekly say about 4% of books sales in the US are from Costco, Target and Kmart. The biggest share of the market, about 28%, is from Amazon.

Whilst their book-share is minimal, our normal perception of Costco as a place ‘to shift tons’ may cause us to miss their potential in terms of influencing behaviour, especially when their store traffic could contain a high proportion of deal-sensitive shoppers that are prepared to tell others about good deal availability on popular products.

In other words, this Costco book-signing ‘little thing’ could be part of a tipping-point process that accelerates consumer acceptance of discounters..

Time for Costco NAMs to consider Costco as a market-influencer of the mass market rather than simply a quick-fix for sales budget short-falls?

NAM’s power-loss elimination at vital moments?

                                                                                              pic: Daily Star
The world’s first pair of wireless mobile-charging trousers will be unveiled on Tuesday as part of a new collaboration between British fashion designer Adrien Sauvage and Microsoft.

The trousers, described as a “wearable chino” by Mr Sauvage, have been fitted with a wireless charging plate from the Nokia DC-50, dismantled and reassembled within one of the front pockets of the trousers.

As you know, wireless-charging technology utilises induction charging via an electromagnetic field to transfer electricity between two objects. The charging pocket uses energy, sent through an inductive coupling to the phone, which then uses the energy to charge the phone battery.

Priced at over £200 a pair, the trousers will obviously appeal to NAMs that need to be switched on at all times.

However, the combination of an induction-charge (rather than a hard-wire connection) in such close proximity to even more vital equipment, may cause risk-averse NAMs to settle for more traditional methods of maintaining their mobility…

Thursday, 19 June 2014

Optimising your holiday change?

Thai 1 Baht

Iranian 250 Real

Because of checkout inability to distinguish between a 250 Iranian Real coin, a Thai 10 Baht one, or a £2 coin, Morrisons - and possibly the Co-op, have now banned the use of the £2 coin until checkouts have been upgraded.

Given that the Iranian 250 rial is worth just one pence, and the Thai ten baht is worth about 18p, it can be seen why people are tempted in these unprecedented times....

The key issue is that shoppers - and others (!) - have now been alerted to the limitations of retail payment monitoring systems, leading to more of the same, or hopefully a move towards 100% epayment...

More checkout scams here