Lidl in it for brands as Schwarz Group heads to No.1 grocery retailer in western Europe by 2018?

With 2013 sales of €48.9bn compared with Carrefour at €76.7bn and Tesco at €73.1bn,  Lidl's faster rate of growth combined with Aldi means discount channel sales are expected to have raced up to €211bn against the giant stores’ €385bn on a CAGR of 4% by 2018, according to a new report on the grocery channel by Planet Retail.

Schwarz Group, which also owns the store chains Handelshof and hypermarket Kaufland, has operated since the 1930's. The first Lidl* discount store was opened in 1973, copying the Aldi concept. Schwarz rigorously removed merchandise that did not sell from the shelves, and cut costs by keeping the size of the retail outlets as small as possible. By the year 1977, the Lidl chain comprised 33 discount stores and latest figures show that it currently has 9,800 outlets...

The threat for branded suppliers
Whilst Lidl carry more brands than Aldi, the issue still remains that in a flatline market with any growth coming at the expense of competition, Lidl's growth rate represents a threat to branded products.

However, given its high use of surrogate labels, and with most branded suppliers focused on branded competition, Lidl and Aldi have thus managed to stay beneath traditional radar, in most cases.

NAMs now need to catch up by factoring Lidl & Aldi into their trade strategies, as per our earlier KamBlog

(Alternatively, why not await their discovery that national brands under pressure represent an even greater opportunity than surrogate labels...?)

*More Lidl details here

Never mind the Euro/£ exchange rate, Northern Ireland's Sainsbury's Index says it all...

The Sainsbury’s index is the most telling indicator of over or undervaluation of any exchange rate in the island of Ireland.

When the euro is too strong against sterling, the best indicator of this overvaluation isn’t some fancy chart, but is the eight-mile tailback at the roundabout in Newry of people from the Republic stocking up with cheap British booze for the Christmas. In contrast, when sterling is strong, you’ll see no slabs of cut-price Tennent's stacked in the boots of Toyota Corollas in the Sainsbury’s car park.

Worth the trouble and fuel? 
Perhaps not, but added to the 'normal' price differences north and south of the border, then enough people can be prepared to vote with their wheels when a price becomes a bargain...

The trick for NAMs everywhere is to be able to determine the consumer-shopper tipping-point, and promote accordingly...

A store visit to Sainsbury's Newry might help...

(Today the Euro = £0.80, with an expectation of The Bank of England becoming the first major central bank to announce rate hikes since the financial crisis of 2007-2008). 

Counterfeit Street, Manchester – a High Street underworld revival?

                                                                                                                             Pic: The Sunday Mirror
Investigators from The Sunday Mirror have discovered that, behind the locked doors of Bury New Road, in a maze of back alleys and basements, a new trade is flourishing – fake designer goods worth millions of pounds change hands here every year.

See details and pics here.

It’s a hidden shopping mall and cash-and-carry all rolled into one, a secret outlet village where rogue traders buy fake supplies in bulk and sell them on across the country. Young men - the spotters - lurk on street corners outside the locked shutters of closed-down shops. These men are the spotters. They bring customers in and keep police out.

The process raises big issues:
Apart from illegality, if someone can buy designer-fake for £20, take a gross margin of 43% by selling it on for £35, a retail price still far below that of the genuine article, what is the impact on consumer perception of brand-value?

In other words, if fake and genuine products are almost functionally similar, or at least close enough to satisfy consumer need, there will be a limit to the premium that consumers will be prepared to pay for a branded product that is certified as genuine…

This means that the only effective way to reduce the appeal of designer-fakes will be to reduce retail prices to levels that equate more closely with functional realities, especially in flat-line markets…

Best use of a shop window postcard space

Chip Shop Awards 2014: one of the winners
Entrant: Boxer
Brand: Mens Health Clinic
Title: Erectile Dysfunction
Credits: Paul Martin

Factoring Aldi into your trade strategies

Despite its rate of growth and probably because of the fact that there is little national brand potential in Aldi, branded goods suppliers may not have a way of giving Aldi the 'status' it deserves within trade strategies...

This may be because most companies focus planning resource on finding ways of growing the business, especially in flat-line times... They may also be tasked on establishing reasons for falling sales, but this emphasis may fail to see beyond corporate rear-protection.

Instead, why not consider devoting one of the planners (or one day a week for smaller companies) to focus on sources of business loss and and their progression, in terms of increasing threat in the future?

In other words, treat significant sources of loss with the same emphasis as sources of growth. This would then provide a way of raising Aldi's profile within the company to a level commensurate with its importance in the market...

Or perhaps it is preferable to wait until it is responsible for 10% loss of sales?

Sh*tbull Terrier Savages Morrisons' Board...!

Sir Ken Morrison’s one-word assessment of the company’s turnaround strategy will have come as no surprise to seasoned Morrisons’ NAMs...

Whilst KM's judgement was delivered as a major shareholder at a gathering of concerned shareholders, he was really expressing succinctly the view of the loyal, savvy, outspoken consumer-shopper, the complainer who is attempting to give a favoured retailer a second chance to get it right.., a call-for-action that deserves to be taken at face value.

However, as most NAMs know, KM has been delivering ‘bulls**t’ assessments for years...  In fact, he always expressed a down-to-earth reaction to any trade presentation that was too theoretical, and even imposed six-month bans on NAM visits. Instead, NAMs were invited to ‘send in the details and we shall decide if it is worth stocking'…

This invariably caused proactive NAMs to revisit their brand rationale and distil it down to a simple, hopefully compelling proposition that might surmount the constraints of ‘a couple of leaflets and a covering letter’.

In fact, the only real problem for Morrisons’ NAMs turned out to be how to explain to the Sales Director why their sales actually improved during non-call periods…

Getting a fix on Big Data by switching your focus from 'dot collection to dot connection' (Seth Godin)

Ideally, Big Data - the ultimate 'dot collection' - provides total knowledge, real-time, and requires optimisation via real-time action.

However, leaving aside the amount of computer firepower required to manipulate large data-sets, real-time, with the attendant costs and time implications, it is obvious that Big Data is too big for NAMs to ignore...

Apart from the need to cope with the crazy compromises of real life account management, it seems obvious that NAMs need a way into the potential insights represented by 'total knowledge'. Whilst it can be tempting when under time pressure to revert to a 'fixer' role by deciding on a solution and diving into the data in a search for facts that support our prejudice, it seems obvious that more is required.

On the other hand, awaiting the collection of all the dots can take too long...leaving time for a more pragmatic competitor to find an 'adequate fix'.

What the pragmatic NAM needs is a basic reference-point, a way of looking at the data, and some courage...

One approach can be to acknowledge that a retailer is ultimately measured by Return On Capital Employed and its attendant ratios Net Margin and Capital rotation (stockturn), driven in part by like-for-like sales performance and market share. All else is supportive of these measures...

How to help Tesco?
For instance, Tesco's latest problems with their share price arise from the fact that the global financial crisis has reduced their key results to the following:

Tesco 2013/14: ROCE 8.2%, Net Margin 3.6% and Stockturn 17.8%, whereas Walmart, in the same global climate, have managed to maintain their pre-crisis performance:
Walmart 2013: ROCE 18.2%, Net Margin 5.2% and Stockturn 10.6%

A NAM wishing to use Big Data to help Tesco, needs to access the dot collection looking for ways to improve Tesco's margin (i.e. by driving sales and cutting costs, shopper marketing etc.) and increase stock rotation (i.e. via smaller, more frequent deliveries matched to shopper need, catman etc.)

Avoid the temptation to use every dot, and focus on real creativity, the ability to connect enough of the dots to get to Tesco with a workable plan, before the next guy... 

See Seth's blog here

Tesco heading to a 25% market share...?

If a 25% market share represents a point where a retailer begins to attract the negative attentions of consumers, suppliers, special interest groups, politicians and media, this may result in a defensive mode where more energy is spent excusing behaviour than growing the business.

Given the global potential for Tesco, a return to a 25% UK market share could represent a long term opportunity for the company and its NAMs…

Positive:

• Tesco would still dominate its home market, a key criterion for global players
• Media criticism would possibly divert to other retailers growing into the space
• Tesco could focus on doing what is right for markets home and abroad, better than the competition
• UK emphasis could be placed on optimising domestic profitability to fund global growth
• Stabilised UK supplier-partnerships could be leveraged for global risk management & joint profitability

Minus:

• A high-grade domestic team would be required in order to keep the UK share ‘on hold’ at 25%
• …meaning less glory for UK managers vs their overseas colleagues
• Any UK ‘distractions’ would threaten Tesco’s ability to optimise global opportunities, meaning ‘whiter than white’ performance would be a key requirement

Interesting:

• Patently over-spaced in large scale outlets, Tesco could use that space to focus on taking shopper-marketing and in-store theatre to their limits
• The resulting learnings would mean that their UK outlets could become test-beds for execution overseas
• UK NAMs with high quality and innovative ideas could optimise potential with what could become the best retailer in town
• …a stepping-stone to global opportunity?

In other words, Tesco and their NAMs might be better off aiming for a 25% share of every global market than trying to prop up an unsustainable 30% share in the UK...

Besides which, a 25% grocery share would still allow Tesco to optimise all of those non-grocery channels in the UK, below the radar…