Aldi Overtakes Asda To Become Second Biggest Supermarket By Volume In Scotland

New data from Kantar shows that Aldi has overtaken Asda for the first time to become Scotland’s second-largest supermarket by volume.

Over the 12-week period to 15 June, the discounter’s volume share of the Scottish grocery market increased to 11.7%, commanding a higher share than Sainsbury’s (7.4%), Co-op (8.9%), Morrisons (8.9%), Lidl (9.6%), and Asda (11.5%), behind only Tesco (25.2%).

Aldi noted that its growth in Scotland was testament to its commitment to Scottish sourcing, working with 90 local suppliers and stocking 450 products from the country.

This was recognised at the 2024 Scotland Food & Drink Excellence Awards, where Aldi won the ‘Best for Scottish’ award for the third time. Additionally, results from the last three NFU Shelfwatch surveys ranked Aldi as the top supermarket in Scotland for stocking Scottish produce.

“Reaching this milestone is a proud moment for Aldi in Scotland, reflecting the strength of our continued growth,” said Sandy Mitchell, Regional Managing Director at Aldi Scotland.

“This data reveals the trust customers are placing in us every day, turning to us for top-quality products at affordable prices.

Our continued success is only possible thanks to the dedication of our people and the strong relationships we’ve built with our Scottish suppliers, allowing our customers to enjoy great produce while supporting homegrown businesses.”

NamNews Implications:

• Asda are unlikely to sit on the sidelines…
• …either in Scotland (or the rest of the UK).
•  i.e. they will take direct action in each market.
• Meanwhile, Sainsbury’s, Co-op, Morrisons and Lidl cannot just let it happen.
• i.e. anticipate some very active retailing in Scotland…
• …sooner rather than later.
• More importantly, what part are you prepared to play?

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New Rumours About Merger Of Aldi Nord And Aldi Süd

There are fresh rumours that the two Aldi entities – Nord and Süd – are discussing a merger, ending a separation that has lasted over 60 years.

German business magazine WirtschaftsWoche reported that discussions between the Heister family, which owns Aldi Süd, and two strands of the Albrecht family, which owns Aldi Nord, have been going on for several weeks.

Sources said a possible deal scenario included the two companies combining under a joint holding company with shares evenly divided between the families’ trusts.

The report noted that while a merger was initially targeted by the end of the year, this is now viewed as unrealistic. WirtschaftsWoche said a first step might be for Aldi Süd and Aldi Nord to combine their IT systems.

Aldi split into two distinct groups in 1961 due to an alleged difference in opinion between the founding brothers, Theo and Karl Albrecht, over whether to sell cigarettes.

The Aldi group as a whole operates over 12,000 stores worldwide. Aldi Nord is responsible for the stores in Northern Germany, Belgium, France, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, and Spain.

Meanwhile, Aldi Süd’s responsibilities cover Southern Germany, Australia, China, Ireland, the UK, the US, and through its Austrian subsidiary, Hofer AG, Austria, Hungary, Italy, Slovenia, and Switzerland.

Internal disputes among family heirs had previously obstructed any strategic coordination between the two chains. However, following a series of court cases and a structural overhaul of Aldi Nord’s governance, the families have been pursuing closer alignment.

Whilst both use different branding, they follow a similar model and have been harmonising their ranges and product development in recent years.

A unified Aldi could pose a serious challenge to global competitors such as Lidl, Walmart, and Carrefour. Combining resources would result in greater purchasing power, streamlined supply chains, and coordinated international expansion.

Analysts believe that a merger could also allow Aldi to accelerate investments in digital retail and e-commerce, an area in which it has struggled to make an impact.

Whilst the families might ultimately pursue full consolidation, cultural differences between the two companies, legacy systems, and legal complexities are likely to remain significant obstacles.

The two companies have not commented on the report.

NamNews Implications:

•  A 50/50 split does not always make for easy decision-making
• ...but it is unlikely that an unbalanced split would suit either side
• Also the Asda/Walmart IT system-decoupling issues might be kept in mind..
• That said, the resulting scale from a join-up of this size would be of benefit to Aldi on global and local level..
• Watch this space..

Aldi Moves Ahead Of Asda

On the same day that Asda suggested that it was on the road to recovery, new figures show it has been overtaken by Aldi in market share terms across certain categories.

According to Kantar data published by trade magazine The Grocer, Aldi’s grocery market share was 9.8% over the four weeks to 18 May, compared with Asda’s 9.4%.

The figures include the food & drink, household, and healthy & beauty categories and are different from the widely covered numbers that the research group makes publicly available each month. They relate to all expenditure through store tills, with latest figures putting Asda ahead on 12.1% compared to Aldi’s 11.1%

The data seen by The Grocer is usually only shared by Kantar with the supermarkets. Over the longer 12 week period to 18 May, Aldi and Asda were neck-and-neck on 9.8%. Aldi’s grocery sales rose 8.2% year-on-year during the period, while Asda’s fell 6.7%.

Looking at just food and drink (excl. alcohol, household, toiletries and healthcare), Aldi is significantly ahead of Asda, with a share of 10.8% over the 12 weeks versus 10%.

Speaking to The Grocer, Giles Hurley, CEO of Aldi UK & Ireland, said: “In the latest data we have taken third spot. That’s not an objective for us. We don’t benchmark on placement in the market. But it’s an interesting output of our growth and it’s exciting. Seven in every 10 households shop with us.”

An Asda spokesperson commented: “The data upon which these claims are based is highly selective and does not capture Asda’s strong performance across George, Asda Express and Fuel, which remain a key point of difference to the limited-range discounters.”

NamNews Implications:

• By whatever cut, the impact is perceptible to both Aldi and Asda.
•  i.e. affects morale…
• …that eventually seeps into the aisle.
• Watch this space…

Head Of Aldi UK Dismisses Talk Of Supermarket Price War

Giles Hurley, CEO of Aldi UK & Ireland, has said he does not believe the supermarket sector is in the midst of a price war despite suggestions to the contrary, whilst warning rivals his business still had “huge potential” for growth.

Back in March, Asda raised fears of a price war after saying it was willing to take a hit to profits to finance a campaign of price cuts aimed at reversing a slide in market share.

The warning hit the share prices of Tesco and Sainsbury’s, with both supermarkets accounting for Asda’s statement in their annual profit outlooks.

However, speaking to Reuters on Thursday, Hurley said that there had been “more talk than substance”.

He added: “There has been a lot of talk about a price war, I don’t think that has manifested itself,” pointing to industry data showing grocery inflation hitting 4.1% in May, a 15-month high.

“I’d probably call it more of a phoney price war than a real price war,” Hurley said, maintaining that Aldi’s price gap to rivals “is as big as it’s ever been”.

Data from Kantar published on Wednesday showed Aldi UK’s sales rose 6.7% over the 12 weeks to 18 May, its fastest growth since the start of 2024, with its market share hitting a record 11.1%, up 30 basis points year-on-year.

“While I’m delighted with the growth that we have, there’s massive headroom for us,” said Hurley.

He noted that the group, which currently trades from around 1,050 stores, will invest £650m this year in opening 40 stores and refreshing existing ones. A further 40 openings are planned for 2026 as part of its long-term target to reach 1,500 stores in the UK.

NamNews Implications:

• What matters to the consumer-in-the-street: “Is it cheaper elsewhere?”
• A consumer who is increasingly prepared to shop around for value.
• Call it what you will…
• …but keener prices attract (and retain) shoppers.
• With depth of retailer pockets a key driver…
• …and suppliers needing to assess which retailers are best placed to reduce shelf prices.
• At whose expense…?

Aldi Seeking Public Input To Find Sites For New Stores

Aldi is calling on the public to help identify the best locations for new stores in the UK.

Customers can submit suggestions for where the discounter should open new outlets, with the most popular areas being considered as part of Aldi’s expansion strategy.

The supermarket currently has more than 1,050 stores and has committed to a long-term goal of operating more than 1,500 sites across the UK.

In the coming months, Aldi will be bringing new stores to areas such as Ashford in Kent, Eastbourne in Sussex, and Caterham in Surrey, as part of its focus on expanding in the South East.

“We’ve always believed that great quality food should be within everyone’s reach and many communities would therefore still benefit from having an Aldi nearby,” said Jonathan Neale, Managing Director of National Real Estate at Aldi UK.

“We’re always looking at key places where we see potential, but we also want to hear directly from the public about where the demand is greatest. Their input is invaluable as we continue to grow and bring Aldi’s unbeatable value to more areas across Britain.”

The supermarket ran a similar initiative last year, which saw locations in London, Manchester, and Derbyshire recognised as priority locations amongst shoppers.

Progress has already been made to bring a new Aldi store to Chesterfield in Derbyshire, with the company recently securing planning for a site on Ringwood Road, Brimington.

To nominate a town or area for consideration, people have to email NextNewStore@aldi.co.uk and state the town they would like to put forward in the subject of the email.

Aldi is asking for submissions by 8th June, with plans to share the results and unveil the next round of priority locations later this year.

NamNews Implications:

• Aldi will obviously use scientific bases for site selection…
• …But public support will patently help in securing planning approvals.
• Besides, one never knows, local support may uncover potential sites missed by the science…
• Either way, Aldi appears to be determined to achieve their long-term goal of operating more than 1,500 sites across the UK.
• Watch this space…

Aldi Surpasses Asda in Food And Drink Sales Amidst Turnaround Challenges

Asda’s turnaround has suffered a blow after new figures show that Aldi has overtaken the struggling supermarket in terms of food and drink sales.

Kantar data seen by The Telegraph shows Aldi accounted for 10.6% of food and drink sales across all supermarkets in the 12 weeks to 23 March – beating Asda’s market share, which slipped from 10.5% to 10.4%. Aldi had a 10.1% market share in the previous period, with its gains in recent weeks driven by higher sales of fresh poultry, fish, eggs and fruit.

The figures, which the newspaper said are distributed privately to supermarkets, do not include sales of alcohol, toiletries, household goods, and beauty items. Including these, Asda is still the third-largest grocer, with a share of 12.5%. However, this is down from the 14.8% share it held when it was acquired by TDR Capital and the Issa brothers in 2021.

Meanwhile, supported by its store expansion programme, Aldi has continued to make gains, with its overall share recently hitting 11.0% for the first time after growing at its fastest rate in over a year.

Aldi overtook Morrisons as the fourth-largest grocer in September 2022. In the unpublished figures from Kantar, The Telegraph noted that Morrisons had slipped further down the rankings on food and drink sales. It sold less food and drink than Lidl in the period, with the fast-growing discounter holding a 7.7% share compared to Morrisons’ 7.6%.

In March, Asda’s Allan Leighton: .. Asda prepared to take a significant hit to its profit to finance a shift to a new low ‘Asda Price’ by the end of 2026 in a bid to recover lost market share. Shares in Tesco, Sainsbury’s and M&S tumbled on fears of a major supermarket price war.

Leighton said Asda had a lot of ground to make up, i.e. turnaround efforts would take years.

Re share share data, an Asda spokesperson said the Kantar data was “highly selective and does not include key grocery categories such as alcoholic drinks, pet food, laundry, household products and toiletries”.

“We have a clear plan to deliver outstanding value for our customers, and since relaunching Rollback at the end of January, we have reduced prices on a third of our entire range.

“This focus on lowering prices for hard-working families is reflected in the latest and most widely followed Kantar data, as Asda inflated behind the discounters and clearly maintained its position as the third-largest supermarket in the UK.”

NamNews Implications:

• Aldi achieving a No.3 position in any part of the UK trade is a pivotal moment.
• And doing so in food & drinks makes it top-of-mind.
• These food & drinks stats present a dilemma for Asda:
• Fight it out with the discounters on food & drink.
• Or do battle where Asda are ahead: alcohol, toiletries, household goods, and beauty items. Morrisons’ slippage will not go unnoticed either…
• As always, suppliers will have to take a stance re where these changes are heading…
• …and adjust their trade strategies accordingly.

Aldi Hits British Supplier Target Earlier Than Expected

Aldi has met its long-term commitment to increase spending with British suppliers.

In 2020, the discounter pledged to spend an additional £3.5bn a year with British suppliers by the end of 2025. However, it announced today that it has already surpassed this target, spending more than £14bn with UK businesses in 2024.

Giles Hurley, Chief Executive Officer of Aldi UK, commented: “British suppliers have always been at the heart of our business. From homegrown apples to Wagyu beef, and from crisps to cocktails – our range is full of incredible British products sourced from our amazing suppliers right here in the UK.

“We remain committed to buying British wherever we can, and surpassing our annual spending target ahead of schedule is a testament to that. By working closely with British businesses, we continue to champion local suppliers and support the UK economy.”

Last year, Aldi signed a 20-year agreement with family-owned fruit farm A C Goatham & Son in Kent to create a 200-acre Aldi Orchard to supply the chain’s entire core range of British apples. And last month, the discounter revealed that it had signed a new contract worth around £320m over the next five years with Yorkshire-based beef supplier Warrendale Wagyu.

Hurley concluded: “Hitting this milestone early is a proud moment for us and for the thousands of British suppliers we work with. Their hard work and dedication are what helps us deliver great quality and value to our customers every day.

“As we look ahead, our British suppliers can know that we’ll continue to stand alongside them – just as we have for the past 35 years.”

Aldi is celebrating its 35th year in the UK this weekend, having made its debut on 5th April 1990, opening a store in the Stechford area of Birmingham.

NamNews Implications:

• Given that the future of UK retail is much about Retail Media...
• ...in turn based mainly upon optimising the use of brands' First Party Data...
• ...brand suppliers should prepare now for Aldi’s inevitable move towards a 50/50 brand-surrogate label balance.
• As the discounter remodels its business to optimise the potential of Retail Media...

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Aldi Voted ‘Supermarket Of The Year’ For Wine

Aldi has beaten off competition from Waitrose and Co-op to be named ‘Supermarket of the Year’ for wine at this year’s People’s Choice Drink Awards, which took place earlier this week.

The discounter won the gold medal after receiving the greatest number of public votes, with its own brand Pierre Jaurant Côtes De Gascogne white wine also recognised within the ‘Mindful Drinking: Light and Easy’ category, taking home a silver.

Aldi noted that success has been fuelled by its customer-centric approach and responsiveness to consumer trends, developed in direct response to shopper demand.

Julie Ashfield, Chief Commercial Officer at Aldi UK, commented: “We’re thrilled to receive this award for our wine range, showcasing our commitment to offering exceptional value without sacrificing quality. Thank you to our customers for recognising our dedication.”

NamNews Implications:

• Stakeholders might benefit from reminding themselves of how far this ‘impertinent discounter’ has come…
• …on its 35-year UK journey
• ...in this sophisticated UK market
•  (With you or without you?)

Aldi Raises Hourly Rate Again To Maintain Position As ‘Britain’s Best-Paying Supermarket’

Just weeks after announcing that it was increasing its hourly wages, Aldi has raised the rate again. The move comes days after key rival Lidl said it would offer its UK store staff a better rate that would have meant Aldi was no longer Britain’s best-paying supermarket.

From 1st March, Aldi Store Assistants will now be paid at least £12.75 per hour nationally and £14.05 within the M25. On 21 January, the discounter announced a rise to £12.71 nationally and £14.00 within the M25.

The rates exceed the Real Living Wage set by the Living Wage Foundation in October last year, with some staff seeing higher wages based on their length of service.

Aldi has also committed to a further pay increase for store staff from September, taking its minimum rates to £12.85 per hour nationally and £14.16 within the M25.

“This latest increase recognises the important contribution that our colleagues make day in, day out and ensures they are rewarded fully for their contribution with industry-leading pay,” said Giles Hurley, Chief Executive Officer of Aldi UK and Ireland.

“Every member of Team Aldi plays an important role in providing the best products, service and value to the millions of shoppers that visit our stores.”

Aldi revealed yesterday that it plans to invest £67m in upgrading its existing stores during 2025 as part of a programme to improve the shopping experience for its customers.

NamNews Implications:

• Who would have thought?
• Two discounters vying to be the highest retail payer of staff in the UK.
• If the quality of workers follows the rate of pay, then shopfloor motivation will make a difference…
• More reason for retail rivals to watch?
• And begging the question: Can any supplier afford to ignore the discounters?
• (just implying…)

Aldi Improving Health & Beauty Fixtures In Next Phase Of Investment Programme For Existing Stores

Aldi has revealed that it plans to invest £67m in upgrading its existing stores during 2025 as part of a programme to improve the shopping experience for its customers.

The discounter noted that it had spent almost £600m on store upgrades since 2017, and with the first phase of these updates nearly complete, it was moving on to the next stage of its store enhancement programme.

The initial store upgrades focused on creating more space for fresh, chilled, and food-to-go ranges, alongside simpler layouts, improved fixtures and energy-efficient LED lighting.

The new phase will include additional in-store features such as improved bakery and health & beauty fixtures for customers. Stores will also benefit from CO2 refrigeration upgrades, contributing to an estimated reduction in carbon emissions equivalent to heating over 6,500 homes when the programme is complete.

“Aldi’s £67m investment is a major step forward in our commitment to delivering an even better shopping experience for our customers across Britain,” said Jonathan Neale, Managing Director of National Real Estate at Aldi UK.

“Building on the success of our previous upgrades, we’re enhancing store layouts as part of our dedication to providing customers with more sustainable stores, convenience and an improved shopping experience nationwide.”

As well as store improvements, Aldi is investing approximately £650m in new openings across the UK in 2025, with a target of around 30 additional sites.

NamNews Implications:

• Aldi appears to be addressing possible negatives.
• Whilst making improvements in the estate.
• All adding to an improved shopping experience for more shoppers.
• And if their share starts growing again….

Aldi Tops Cheapest Supermarket Ranking Despite Rival’s ‘Loyalty Schemes And Flashy Promotions’

Aldi has again been named as the UK’s cheapest supermarket in a price comparison survey by trade magazine The Grocer.

The study of a basket of 33 everyday items revealed the gap between Aldi and the four largest full-price supermarkets (Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda and Morrisons) was 16% on average.

Despite recently announcing the return of its Rollback scheme, Asda only managed fifth place, with its basket checking out at £7.62 more expensive than Aldi’s.

Tesco was found to be 14% (£7.52) more expensive than Aldi, even when loyalty prices are applied, while third-placed Morrisons came out as £7.36 more expensive.

Lidl was in second place, just 16p behind Aldi.

“The latest data confirms that our prices simply can’t be matched and our customers know that the only place to get Aldi prices is by shopping at Aldi,” said Julie Ashfield, Managing Director for Buying at Aldi.

“Other supermarkets can try and compete with us through loyalty schemes and flashy promotions but the only thing on a roll is Aldi, being named the best on price time after time. That’s because our promise to our customers is straightforward and simple – they will make significant savings every time they shop with us.”

NamNews Implications:

• A 16% advantage on average Mults’ prices has to count for many shoppers
• Key for Aldi to give more shoppers access to their outlets
• Hence the importance of their store opening programme…
• Meanwhile key for suppliers to find ways of working with Aldi..?

Aldi's down-to-earth proof-of-origin

According to ESM: The European Supermarket Magazine, Aldi Süd are piloting Isotope Analysis to guarantee produce source by locality/region...more details here.

Apart from savvy consumers’ interest in establishing the source of their food, this Aldi initiative will also help in allaying doubts regarding discounters ability to provide like-for-like produce at prices lower than the mults.

In addition to adding cost to the sourcing process, this will heighten consumer curiosity as to the origin of other products available in discounters.

In the UK, this increase in their costs would result in a reduction in the pricing advantage enjoyed by the discounters, but if this proof-of-origin initiative gives Aldi a competitive advantage, others will follow…

Interesting how the cookie crumbles...

Aldi & Lidl as problem solvers?

Unlike the redundant-space, 80/20 issues of the mults, Aldi & Lidl see online as a way of reducing car-park congestion and queueing instore.

In an interesting twist on accepted wisdom that discounters are simply trying to imitate the mults, Simon Johnstone of Kantar Retail gives details how discounters innovate to solve the problem of 'custom-bunching' resulting from Aldi's Special Buys on Thursdays and Sundays.

Developing online focused on lifestyle helped Aldi spread the traffic...

A number of other examples are given in the article, all examples of discounter-specific creativity.

Given that much discounter growth is at the expense of brands, branded NAMs that can find ways of working proactively with Aldi & Lidl have to gain an advantage over the competition.

In other words, the combination of NAM creativity and discounters' apparent willingness to innovate in terms of - their - problem solution suggests ways forward for NAMs that are prepared to put the fire-fighting on hold and trigger a brainstorming session with Aldi or Lidl...

Aldi's older UK stores growth slowdown - beginning of the end, or end of the beginning?

With Aldi growing new space by 10-15% per annum, the discounter is clearly racing to reach its full foot-print potential in the UK.

Although like-for-like sales in stores open more than 1 year are 1%, the emphasis has to be on making the Aldi offer accessible to the entire UK population, in the current flat-line market. Given the relatively low cost of opening new outlets, Aldi – and Lidl – are better able to afford a greater degree of geographical infilling than are the redundant-space mults.

It could therefore be said that Aldi are approaching the end of the beginning of the first discounter-wave in the UK.

With Kantar figures showing Aldi and Lidl attracting 1m more shoppers to their stores, resulting in a 13.3% and 18.5% jump in sales respectively, it can be seen that initial access to their offering can be lucrative for the discounters. Given that they are simultaneously pushing upmarket, successfully, and with no end to flat-line demand in sight, the discounters are surely pursuing the right priorities in this market.

Given eventual discounter outlet saturation, both players will then have sufficient financial momentum to focus on optimising like-for-like performance at local level, well in advance of any end in sight…

Meanwhile, branded suppliers have to find ways of sharing in this discounter growth. This means finding ways of moving from the ‘ongoing continuous relationship’ process that was possible with traditional retailers, to the ad hoc transactional dealings necessary with discounters.

For instance, a little-noticed announcement by Nestlé some weeks ago re highlighting its confectionery brands in all of Aldi’s German outlets, indicates one of the moves being made towards continuous collaboration with this increasingly important route to consumer for major brands…

To help your colleagues focus on this challenge, why not consider running a what-if on the Aldi-Lidl combination eventually moving from a 10% to a 20% share of the UK grocery market?

Aldi-man new fashion range launch

Having landed a few heavy punches on the grocery mults, Aldi is now squaring up to the High Street clothing giants M&S and Next, with its first fashion range for men.

The new summer clothing range includes linen trousers (£9.99), smart chino shorts (£7.99) and Oxford shirts (£6.99), and for those NAMs wanting to avoid being recognised by other Aldi-NAMs, marl zipped hoodies are a must-buy @ £8.99….

Worth at least a store visit, but if you cannot afford to be seen in Aldi, some good in-use pics are available here.

Where is this headed?
Sharp-eyed followers of mens’ fashion will remember that Lidl beat Aldi to it via their launch of a men's fashion range in November 2014.

However, apart from resulting in a little headline-grabbing skirmishing, taking both initiatives together gives another indication of the extent of the discounters’ ambitions in the UK.

In other words, someone at Aldi/Lidl has to be assessing potential opportunities category by category, seeking the right blend of complacent-pricing and tunnel-vision that might respond to a Lidl proper discounting...

It costs little to try, and one discounter’s success automatically provides a pointer for the other…

Meanwhile, one can only imagine the additional disruption in the men’s fashion world should Poundland find a way to follow suit…?

Free Aldi bus for students' weekly shop

                                                                                                           pic: An Focal

Given the discounter’s primary audience-mix of students and senior citizens, and the likelihood that carefully managed long term loyalty will eventually bridge the generation-gap, this new initiative indicates the degree of Aldi’s determination to optimise its market share long term…

Currently operating at UCD, Trinity, Limerick, DCU, and Dundalk Institute of Technology, Aldi plans to serve all third level campuses by the end of 2015.

“The bus service is completely free, anyone can hop on, you don’t have to live on campus at all, you just need to email the UL Aldi Bus Rep, book your spot and even if you don’t you can show up and if there are spaces available you can get on.  They have allocated stops for the bus so it’s safe, the students will be signed on by reps and they will make sure everyone is on again after they are finished their shopping.”

Aldi’s “University” page on its website features weekly promotions of healthy recipes and cooking guides, along with the cost of purchasing each meal, in a weekly shop of €34.

Not bad for the ‘foreign, downmarket, cut-price retailer’ that had the cheek to enter the state-of-art, up-market, big-space UK retail scene 25 years ago…

With an 8.1% share of the Irish market, Aldi have no plans for extending its bus-service to the UK, yet…

What if Aldi & Lidl grow at 10% in flatline?

Apart from politicians' assurances re post election growth, just suppose that we are into flatline growth for the next five years, at least...

Also given Aldi & Lidl combined share of 9% (see yesterday's NamNews) and a conservative (!) estimate of 10% growth vs major mults at 0%, the two discounters will reach 15% share by 2020...

The resulting issue for suppliers has to be, barring radical changes in discounter ranging policy, most of this growth will be via surrogate branding, at the expense of national brands...

Branded suppliers have a choice:

• Either persuade the discounters to stock more brands...
• Or find a way to optimise private label, and seek a fair share of the discounter action

...whilst the major mults mount the deepest price cuts ever, possibly fuelled by back to front margin moves...

The Two Aldis - Some concerns for the future? - and a lot more anecdotal detail..

For decades the Albrechts, the billionaire dynasty behind the Aldi retail empire, have lived by two golden rules: live modestly and avoid publicity. Aldi founders Karl and Theo Albrecht were also as obsessive about thrift as privacy.

Having been accustomed to having access to far greater degrees of personal and business background re our other major customers, we have all watched the growth of Aldi with a mix of curiosity and frustration at the lack of anecdotal coverage to provide insight.

For this reason alone it may be worth a glance at this Irish Times article, revealing that Aldi are now just like most other family businesses, and perhaps a little easier to understand…

What if Aldi UK keeps going?

Given its UK 2013 sales of £5,275m and growing at 25%, Aldi could reach £16bn by 2018.
In a flat-line market, this would make it twice the size the Co-op Foods business and say 50% of a major multiple, given zero to very low growth of its competitors in the meantime.

Apart from a ‘handful’ of brands, this means that most of its business would be in surrogate brands, at the expense of national brands, effectively taking demand from the branded market.

This suggests that brand-suppliers have to find a way of dealing with Aldi, either via 1-off discontinuous promoting, or through supply of surrogate labels…

And with Lidl showing similar signs, they should be added to a new trade strategy

Perhaps yesterday’s news of changes at the top of Aldi UK - our biggest story of the day - provides NAMs with an excuse to help your company revisit corporate policy re the discounters?

Where next for Aldi, Lidl and private label in the upturn?

Brand owners taking comfort in the belief that the swing to private label and the discounters’ surrogate brands (i.e. Smith’s coffee made exclusively for Aldi) is a temporary aberration due for correction in the current ‘upturn’, might lose a little sleep following the publication of new research on how consumer knowledge affects the choice of private label over national brands.

Mark Ritson gives a great summary of the paper and its implications in Marketing Week, where he notes
- Category knowledge (and the resulting confidence) is a key predictive driver in choosing private label
- ...if people are buying private labels not because they are trading quality for lower prices but because they know these products are as good as the manufacturer brands (Aldi, Lidl and private label will not lose share in the upturn).

Mark’s Marketing Week article is much more accessible, but it can also pay to go back to the original research paper for more details on OTC medicines and Pantry Staples. The paper also gives anecdotal insights such as … the welfare claims we make (for medicines) depend on the assumption that information per se does not affect the utility a consumer receives from a product. If, for example, believing that national-brand aspirin works better actually makes national-brand aspirin more effective at reducing headaches, then informing consumers could actually make them worse off…

The original paper concludes:

• Across a range of products we find strong evidence that more informed shoppers buy more store brands and fewer national brands.
• Consumer information plays a large quantitative role in health categories, where our estimates imply that expenditures and market shares would change significantly if all households behaved like expert shoppers.
• By contrast, the role of consumer information is smaller in food and drink categories, where our estimates suggest much smaller gaps between expert and non-expert shopping behaviour...
  i.e. a moderately savvy consumer is likely to have more confidence in opting for private label food and drink, than medicines…

NB. The researchers emphasise that the study was limited to examining the effects of information on quantities and prices. If consumers were to become more informed, markets would adjust on other bases as well. In particular, a more informed population of consumers might change whether and how much firms choose to advertise their products, as well as which products are introduced to the market. 

NAM Implications:
For many years we have been educating the consumer to be more savvy in their choice of our brand, and have been helping them place the brand within a functionally-based category context…

Have we been inadvertently driving them at the private label/surrogate brand in the process?

Thanks to Guy Cuthbert for the pointer…