Grocery Price Inflation Continues To Accelerate; Lidl Reaches Record Market Share

Latest figures from Worldpanel by Numerator: UK take-home sales up 5.4% during the 4 weeks to 13 July compared to 2024 (accelerating price inflation, with the highest level since January 2024 at 5.2%).

The average household spends £5,283 each year at supermarkets, which means the latest rise could add £275 to people’s grocery bills if their shopping habits stay the same.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight: “Own label products, which are often cheaper, continue to be some of the big winners and, in fact, sales of these ranges are again outpacing brands, growing by 5.6% versus 4.9%."

Inflationary worries are not only changing what we buy food but also its preparation (simpler meals to save money, almost seven in ten dinner plates include fewer than six components).

McKevitt said: “Innovation is absolutely vital to help grocers keep up with new trends and make sure they’re meeting shoppers’ needs as behaviours and priorities shift."

The drinks aisle:
Iced coffee has soared in popularity in recent years, and with summer temperatures rising, sales were up this month by 81%.

Kombucha drinks sales more than doubling over the latest four weeks vs 2024. 

No and low alcohol drinks continue their gradual march into the mainstream too, with nearly seven in every 100 households buying a product this month, pushing sales up by 21%.

Individual retailers:
Lidl reached a record high market share this period at 8.3%, gaining 0.5 percentage points as it attracted more than half a million new customers to its stores.

Aldi sales up 6.3%, share up to 10.9%.

Tesco share 28.3% after sales grew by 7.1%, the fastest rate since December 2023.

Sales at Sainsbury’s increased by 5.3%, raising its market share to 15.1%.

Matching its previous share high of 2.0%, Ocado was again the fastest-growing grocer in the UK. Its sales rose by 11.7%, exceeding the overall online market growth rate of 5.7%.

Over the past 12 weeks, online accounted for 12.0% of all sales at the grocers, with 23% of households making at least one virtual shopping trip.

Meanwhile, grocery sales at M&S were 6.5% higher than a year ago.

Spending through the tills at Morrisons nudged up just 1.0%, with its market share falling to 8.4%.

Despite its turnaround efforts, Asda’s share of the market slipped to 11.8% after a 3.0% fall in sales.

NamNews Implications:

• Consumers are patently being affected by the 5.2% inflation ‘peak’ (and more to come)…
• …in terms of more savvy food spending and eating carefully to conserve cash.
• Temporary moves (like brand to own label equivalents)…
• …may prove difficult/expensive for suppliers to reverse.
• Innovation in some categories may help.
• Lidl continues to find top of mind for retailers and suppliers (raising questions re their role in trade strategies?)
• Meanwhile, the discounters’ joint share of 19.2%…
• …if not raising concerns, should be.
• By the same token, the falling shares of Morrisons and Asda cast a shadow…

Aldi Overtakes Asda To Become Second Biggest Supermarket By Volume In Scotland

New data from Kantar shows that Aldi has overtaken Asda for the first time to become Scotland’s second-largest supermarket by volume.

Over the 12-week period to 15 June, the discounter’s volume share of the Scottish grocery market increased to 11.7%, commanding a higher share than Sainsbury’s (7.4%), Co-op (8.9%), Morrisons (8.9%), Lidl (9.6%), and Asda (11.5%), behind only Tesco (25.2%).

Aldi noted that its growth in Scotland was testament to its commitment to Scottish sourcing, working with 90 local suppliers and stocking 450 products from the country.

This was recognised at the 2024 Scotland Food & Drink Excellence Awards, where Aldi won the ‘Best for Scottish’ award for the third time. Additionally, results from the last three NFU Shelfwatch surveys ranked Aldi as the top supermarket in Scotland for stocking Scottish produce.

“Reaching this milestone is a proud moment for Aldi in Scotland, reflecting the strength of our continued growth,” said Sandy Mitchell, Regional Managing Director at Aldi Scotland.

“This data reveals the trust customers are placing in us every day, turning to us for top-quality products at affordable prices.

Our continued success is only possible thanks to the dedication of our people and the strong relationships we’ve built with our Scottish suppliers, allowing our customers to enjoy great produce while supporting homegrown businesses.”

NamNews Implications:

• Asda are unlikely to sit on the sidelines…
• …either in Scotland (or the rest of the UK).
•  i.e. they will take direct action in each market.
• Meanwhile, Sainsbury’s, Co-op, Morrisons and Lidl cannot just let it happen.
• i.e. anticipate some very active retailing in Scotland…
• …sooner rather than later.
• More importantly, what part are you prepared to play?

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Poundland Plays Down Report That It’s Suffering Stock Issues Due To Suppliers Toughening Terms

Poundland has hit back at reports that it is struggling to keep its shelves stocked after several major suppliers tightened credit lines and payment windows amid uncertainty over the discounter’s future following its sale to investment firm Gordon Brothers last month.

Its new owners proposed restructuring plan: closing 2 DCs, at least 68 of its nearly 800 stores, seeking rent reductions on other sites, planning to stop selling frozen food and reduce its chilled food offer.

On Thursday, Pepco Group revealed Poundland revenues down 10.3% to €347m (-7.1% like-for-like) during the quarter to 30 June.

A report by The Times suggested that Poundland’s current situation has spooked suppliers. Sources close to the situation told the newspaper that several major consumer goods companies have cut their payment windows for the retailer, leading to empty shelves in some stores.

Gordon Brothers is currently seeking court approval for its restructuring plan. At a convening hearing on Tuesday, a judge approved the classification of creditors under the plan. A final ruling is expected by the end of August.

The Times said that although suppliers are not formally part of the court-led restructuring process, Poundland has started briefing them on its recovery plans. A supplier meeting was held on Wednesday at its head office in Walsall.

A spokesperson for Poundland is quoted as saying: “Our expectation is that any credit limitations for suppliers will unwind in time after we have the opportunity to implement the restructuring and recovery plan we shared last month. We have been briefing suppliers this week about those plans and appreciate the support they’re providing.”

Poundland has since tried to play down The Times report. A spokesperson told trade publication The Grocer that P&G had never placed any restrictions on the chain’s supply and Nestlé had actually increased its limits on Wednesday this week, when the retailer held the supplier meeting.

They said Poundland received “very strong support” for its recovery plans when it briefed hundreds of suppliers at the gathering. “It’s very firmly business as usual despite the restructure plans,” they stressed.

NamNews Implications:

• Poundland is ‘cutting to fit’ profitable demand…
• …as any responsible business would do.
• Likewise, cautious suppliers will attempt to reduce their exposure to perceived risk.
• This means that Poundland will need to adjust to a new supplier-Poundland mix…
• …that will allow the retailer to proceed to the next stage of its recovery.

Asda Cutting Some Store Manager Roles In Bid To Reduce Complexity

Asda is removing a layer of middle management across its store estate as part of Chairman Allan Leighton’s wider strategy to revive the struggling supermarket.

A report by The Telegraph said the internal shake-up will result in a number of in-store manager roles being made redundant to “take out complexity” from the business.

Asda is combining its ‘section manager’ and ‘trading manager’ roles into a single ‘manager’ post, who will report to operation managers.

The section managers are a layer of in-store middle management who supervise team leaders and teams of shelf stackers. Meanwhile, the trading managers are more senior and have responsibility for “driving sales and standards”.

Asda noted the shake-up will mean around 20% of store management will effectively be promoted to the new combined ‘manager’ post, while other managers will no longer be needed because of the duplication of roles.

Asda has not commented on how many people could be made redundant, but some are being asked to move to different nearby stores.

However, workers in larger supermarkets have already been placed on gardening leave, with sources claiming the number of people in management roles was being halved in some stores. The shake-up does not affect Asda Express stores.

A spokesperson for Asda said: “The investment in this new structure brings decision-making closer to the shop floor, and our customers, by clarifying roles and providing clearer accountabilities.

It also creates more opportunities for colleagues to develop their careers and progress into store management roles, with a significant number of immediate promotions confirmed today. We will be offering our full support to other colleagues impacted by the changes.”

It is the latest round of job cuts at Asda since Leighton rejoined as its Chairman in November, promising to improve the chain’s competitiveness and store standards.

Earlier last week, it was reported that Asda is asking major manufacturers to make big price cuts as part of its strategy to win back customers.

NamNews Implications:

• Not an easy decision…
• …especially in terms of morale of those not leaving.
• Asda presumably in a ‘cut to fit’ mode.
• i.e. With reduced demand, one approach can be to reduce resources...

Lidl Crowned ‘Grocer of the Year’ At Industry Awards

After another period of strong sales growth and store expansion, Lidl has won the ‘Grocer of the Year’ title at The Grocer Gold Awards that took place in London’s Royal Albert Hall on Wednesday night.

Adam Leyland, The Grocer’s editor-in-chief and chair of the judging panel, commented: “Lidl was the one notable exception in 2024 when the growth of the discount sector slowed. It was the fastest-growing bricks & mortar supermarket for the entirety of 2024.”

Meanwhile, Tesco was crowned ‘Britain’s Favourite Supermarket’ for the 11th consecutive year, as voted by shoppers. Asda took the ‘Grocer 33 Price Award’, while Waitrose won two Grocer 33 awards for availability and customer service.

Doritos took home the ‘Food Brand of the Year’ award, and Persil was crowned ‘Household Goods Brand of the Year’.

Meanwhile, Aldi’s Specially Selected range took home the gong for the ‘Own Label Range of the Year’.

View the full list of The Grocer Gold Awards 2025 Winners 

NamNews Implications:

• Worth a pinch to remind oneself that these were the guys that dared to enter sophisticated UK retail 31 years ago.
• And ‘made a go of it’, to understate the obvious!
• Just commenting…

Currys Boss Urges Government Not To Raise Taxes On Retailers

The boss of Currys, the UK’s biggest electrical goods retailer, has urged the government not to increase taxes on retailers this year, saying it would damage investment and force prices to rise.

Alex Baldock, the retailer’s chief executive, said: “We urge government not to make a further contribution to the tax burden as that would further dampen investment and increase prices in an inflationary way.

“I would urge government to think very carefully before making the situation worse.”

Read the article on The Guardian website

NamNews Implications:

• Unfortunately, the government is hungry for tax income.
•  Especially following successive U-turns…
• …that demonstrated little real evidence of anticipating the business consequences...
• Limited breath-holding is recommended in awaiting any improvement…
•  i.e. In a flat demand market, Best focus on growing at the expense of rivals...

Morrisons Overhauling Meat Counters

A new model is being introduced to Morrisons’ fresh meat counters as part of moves to revive its fortunes.

In-store butchers will now cut meat at the start of the day into several different sizes, which will then be packaged up ready for sale.

The range will be the same as before, but displayed on a flatbed so customers can help themselves, rather than having to ask butchers for individual cuts.

Morrisons claims the move will help free up butchers’ time as they will no longer have to work on creating curated meat displays each day. However, butchers will still be available to assist shoppers who want meat cut to a specific size or thickness.

Morrisons has set a target of rolling out the new meat counter format to 100 stores by the end of 2025, with around 60 already being altered.

A spokesperson for Morrisons said: “We are moving at pace with the modernisation of Market Street as part of our Morrisons Magic programme, and following successful trials, we’ve begun to roll out flatbeds in our butchery departments.

“These showcase the same range, with the freshness and quality that Market Street is renowned for, but with a more modern and contemporary look. They offer both the convenience of self-service for customers that prefer it and the traditional individual service from an in-store butcher.

“Customer reaction has been very positive, and we’re aiming to have the new look in 100 stores this year.”

Morrisons recently posted a rise in profits and revenues during its second quarter after it “bounced back strongly” from the cyber attack last year that impacted its trading ahead of Christmas.

During the period, it commenced trials of several new projects in-store, including a new look Market Street format with Farm Shop influences and more added-value products.

NamNews Implications:

• Morrisons will have sufficient customer behaviour data to calculate quantities required in advance cuts.
• Whilst retaining in-store butchers available to assist customers and tweak quantities as required...
• (with added convenience).
• All preserving the Look & Feel of their unique Market Street concept.
• A neat addition to the Market Street offering that made Morrisons different…

Tesco Sees Jump In Market Share As Consumers Shop Little And Often Amid Rising Temperatures And Prices

Kantar Latest: Grocery footfall a five-year high (4 weeks to 15 June), take-home sales up 4.1% vs 2024, jump in shopping frequency despite grocery price inflation 4.7% highest since February 2024, vs previous month 4.1%

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar: “Higher prices didn’t stop shoppers making 490 million trips to the supermarket over the latest month, averaging almost 17 per British household. That’s the highest we’ve recorded since March 2020.” 

However, the rise in frequency was balanced out by a drop in average trip spend (down by three pence to £23.89).

McKevitt added: “Consumer concerns over price are continuing, and this is reflected in the figures. Sales of own-label ranges grew at 4.2% this month, ahead of branded lines, as shoppers looked to balance their budgets. Deals also remain an important tool for retailers to offer value, and the proportion of spending on promotion stepped up to 28.8% this period.”

Overall grocery volumes fell 0.4% in the last 4 weeks, the first year-on-year decline this year. Kantar suggested that a small part of this fall could be down to changing health priorities, including growing use of GLP-1 weight loss drugs (4 in 100 UK households in Great Britain now include at least one GLP-1 user, almost twice vs 2024). Four in five of the users Kantar surveyed say they plan to eat fewer chocolates and crisps, nearly 3 in 4 intend to cut back on biscuits.

Ocado was the fastest-growing grocer again, sales up 12.2% in 12 weeks to 15 June 2025 (more frequent visits to its website, strong performance in London and Southern England, market share 1.9%).

Traditional grocers:
Lidl was fastest growing at 11.2% (3rd consecutive month double-digit) - share 8.1%
Aldi share 10.9%, sales up 6.5%.
Tesco sales up 7.0%, share 28.1%.
Sainsbury’s share 15.2%, sales up 5.7%.
Morrisons’ grocery share slipped to 8.4% after spending in its stores only up 2.2%.
Asda’s share fell to 11.9%, till-sales down 1.7% vs the same period 2024, albeit an improving trend with growth expected to return over the summer months.
Waitrose sales up 5.5% – its best result since March 2021.
M&S grocery sales up 12.0% (cyber attack recovery)

NamNews Implications:

• The jump in shopping frequency (‘highest Kantar recorded since March 2020’) could also be a reflection of the tendency to shop around.
• Switching to own-label equivalents (sales up 4.2%) continues…
• …carrying with it the risk that ‘satisfied’ switchers might stick with the habit…
• …given the smaller-than-expected compromise.
• Lidl (sales up 11.2%) and Aldi (sales up 6.5%) now have a combined share of 19.0% (!).
• Tesco powers on (sales up 7%, share 28.1%) and Sainsbury’s (sales up 5.7%, share 15.2%)
• i.e. Tesco-Sainsbury’s and Aldi-Lidl have a combined share of 62.3%…
• …surely representing a continuing threat to Morrisons and Asda’s recovery ambitions.
• Maybe time for suppliers to rebalance retailer trading priorities?