Flash Mobs morphing into Cash Mobs, a new force in retailing?

Inspired by Flash Mobs, a cash mob is a group of people who assemble at a local business and all buy items from that business. These groups of online activists are harnessing social media like Twitter and Facebook to get consumers to spend at locally owned stores in cities around the world in so-called Cash Mobs.

At the first International Cash Mob day on Saturday 24^th March, wallet- toting activists gathered in as many as 200 mobs in the United States and Europe, with the aim of spending at least £12 each in locally owned businesses, according to the concept's founder, Cleveland lawyer Andrew Samtoy. 

Essentially, this is a break-through moment, an event where a virtual society enters the real world, prepared to put their real money where their virtual/real mouths are, and actively support local shops….as their contribution to the on-going health of the community.

The need for conversion

However, it is essential to bear in mind that such initiatives are one-off injections of support, the ‘first bite’ of a new product. As you know, the ‘repeat purchase’ depends upon how well the experience matches, or exceeds expectation. In other words, for local retailers this is a windfall, an opportunity to meet and influence a target audience that wants to support local business and the community, and is prepared to spend money in the process…and tell others about their experiences (Remember, that’s how they got to the shop in the first place)

Capitalising on the trial visit

To convert these ‘trialists’ into regular customers, retailers need to ensure that their 8P Marketing Mix (Products & Assortment, Pricing, Promotional activities, Place i.e. store location, Personnel, Physical distribution & handling, Presentation of stores & products, and Productivity) more closely matches shopper need than equivalent offerings available from local and out-of-town multiple retailers. What they lack in price advantage, needs to compensated for in terms of personal service and convenience, to an extent that shoppers willingly come back for more…

How suppliers can help

Suppliers can help by revising their independent retail business model, and find ways of helping survival-mode retailers to adapt the state-of-art retailing principles established by the major multiples, and build an alternative route to consumers, as a way of realistically diluting trade concentration.

Have a pro-active weekend, from the NamNews Team!.

Asda adding retailtainment to the shopping basket?

Asda plans to revamp in-store marketing to improve core customer shopping experience, following Asda 'Mumdex' research which looked at how it could support mums and their sometimes over-enthusiastic off-spring.... Momentum, an integrated marketing communications agency have been appointed to enhance Asda’s key commercial trading occasions by creating a programme of retail events to
- engage customers
- ensure the programme delivers a proven commercial return
- strategically align with objectives of Asda’s brand partners
- use their digital and social platforms to promote events to customers.

This raises the issue of the extent to which suppliers and retailers share and optimise consumer insight and shopper insight in programmes that are based upon suppliers' differentiating retailers by shopper-profile, and tailoring trade strategies appropriately.

In other words, folks, in this case, an integrated ‘digital and physical’ opportunity to optimise Asda potential for brands with profiles that are congruent with Asda’s shopper profile…
One to watch, but still a bit to go to match instore theatre in Brazil...

Tesco's strategic options, suppliers' strategic response

What is this about?

Tesco’s core issue is its profit warning in January, ultimately a driver of ROCE, in turn affecting the share price. With 2/3 of its business in UK, any setback causes the company to challenge one of the basic ‘rules’ in global retailing – ‘dominate the home market’. However, any company having more than 25% of a national retail market attracts negative attention from media, politicians and ultimately shopper-voters. Within the home market, supply chain efficiency made some large space redundant unless freed-space is filled via product diversification. Meanwhile, having grown share at the expense of less efficient competitors, Tesco is now being challenged by retailers that are as good as, or better, for a share of a zero-sum, flat-line market in terms of range, quality and service, as it strives to return to the Tesco 'rule of 25'.

Finally, the early retirement of a strong unchallenged leader left at least four people who felt they should fill his shoes…

Where is it headed?

Essentially, Tesco has four complementary options:

• Sell more of its current products to current users (increase basket size)
• Sell new products to existing users (Clubcard data, trade up via diversification)
• Sell current products to new users (use Clubcard data to profile ideal Tesco users and attract more of this profile with current products)
• Sell new products to new users (high risk, given two unknowns)

They need to re-apply this formula in the UK, delivering greater perceived value to shoppers, vs. competition, and then roll this strategy out globally.
They need to re-assess their competitive appeal in the eyes of shoppers, vs. the competition in terms of range, quality and service, vs. price. The leadership issue needs sorting in order that the entire company pulls in one direction, rather than each function attempting to ‘rescue’ Tesco. This was the challenge faced and successfully dealt with by McLaurin many years ago….

How does it affect you?

Essentially depends upon category, geographical spread and degree-of-partnership, but in the short term the above strategy will put pressure on all aspects of the supplier-retailer relationship, especially price and supply-chain efficiency, as Tesco re-appraises its supplier-base vs. alternatives available

What to do about it?

• Re-assess your competitive appeal to Tesco as a company, and brand within key categories, and re-engineer to optimise, where necessary
• Re-evaluate your match with trade partnership criteria (Potential, Partnership, Profit and Performance)
• Invest (time, money, people) in what can demonstrably help Tesco implement its strategies, and meets your ROCE objectives 

Above all, insist on fair-play in all aspects of your Tesco trade partnership, a once-only opportunity…

Unprecedented Treats for Unprecedented Times?

A $200,000 bottle of whisky made to mark the 60th year on the throne of Queen Elizabeth II is on sale in Singapore for a mere S$250,000 ($198,500) a bottle - and it may well find a buyer, (for a buyer?).

No doubt it's a premium sip. Only 60 bottles of Diamond Jubilee were made by the Johnnie Walker unit of Diageo PLC from a blend of whiskies distilled in 1952.

It's also a premium price for Asian aficionados at the month-long Master of Spirits II event featuring specialty wine and liquor put on by luxury travel retailer DFS Group, part of the LVMH empire of high-end goods and services.

Discerning palates, and expats' excessive longing for the old country apart, this differential vs. a spirits’ bogof at Tesco has to be a reflection of the gap  building up in societies everywhere… the issue is whether this gap will continue to increase to breaking point, or whether new governments will take steps to keep the lid on via attempts to return to normal supply and demand in markets everywhere… Either way, time for suppliers to reassess trade strategies and avail of opportunities, ahead of  competitors locked in old patterns…

Incidentally, should any potential expat buyers like to take a first class trip back to the UK and pick it up locally, the same package - the vintage whisky in a crystal decanter with silver trimmings, two crystal glasses and a leather-bound booklet - is priced at 100,000 pounds ($159,100) in Britain.

Three chias for new wonder-food!

Salvia hispanica, commonly known as chia, is a species of flowering plant native to central and southern Mexico and Guatemala

With more omega-3 fatty acids than salmon, a wealth of antioxidants and minerals, a complete source of protein and more fibre than flax seed, the seeds have been dubbed a "dieter's dream", "the running food", "a miracle", and "the ultimate super food", by advocates and athletes.

To chia cheerleaders the seeds do no wrong. They claim chia reduces inflammation, improves heart health, and stabilises blood sugar levels. A few tablespoons are touted as remedying just about anything - without any ill effects.

"In terms of nutritional content, a tablespoon of chia is like a smoothie made from salmon, spinach and human growth hormone," writes Christopher McDougall in Born to Run, the bestselling book about an ultra-distance running tribe in Mexico who fuel their epic jaunts with the seeds. The book is credited with shining the spotlight on chia as food for athletes.

"If you had to pick just one desert-island food, you couldn't do much better than chia, at least if you were interested in building muscle, lowering cholesterol, and reducing your risk of heart disease; after a few months on the chia diet, you could probably swim home," McDougall adds.

In the UK, the seeds are only currently allowed for sale as a bread ingredient, but over the next few weeks, the Advisory Committee on Novel Foods and Processes is poised to allow chia seeds in a wide variety of products including baked goods, breakfast cereals and nut and seed mixes.

Available at Holland &Barrett Online

Have a really chiaful weekend, from the Namnews Team! 

Payday Loans - an effective solution?

Payday loan providers are there to serve a local need in terms of low-income consumer survival. However, attempts at justifying the 2,000-3,000% interest rates by reference to high servicing costs of small amounts borrowed, coupled with ‘high’ risk of default are inevitably attracting government attention. In practice, much of this risk is eliminated by effectively taking ownership of borrowers’ salary/wages cheques until loans have been repaid, with any default-losses well covered by the usurious interest rates charged to those who pay…. In the end, the eventual changes to legislation will be too late and inadequate-for-purpose in restraining providers that in the old days would simply have been run out of town…

An effective solution

Instead, the government should acknowledge that those members of the community in need of income-supplements between paydays should be offered government-backed temporary loans using the payday loan model. This could include taking ownership of pay-cheques/income supplements, but offering low-level interest rates, a move that could help to stabilise household finances and freeze out current payday-lenders overnight…..

Use of Fixed Charge Cover to spot a customer going bust?

Given the financial turmoil of the past three years resulting in further retail casualties such as Game Group, and a number of others on the brink, it is obvious that the ‘usual ratios’ such as ROCE, Net Margin, Stockturn and Gearing may be insufficient in terms of providing early warnings of trouble for suppliers.

What makes a retailer vulnerable?
A recent article in Moneyweek.com flags up the fact that if a retailer leases rather than owns its shops, it is faced with regular fixed charges for rent that must be paid, irrespective of the level of sales and profits. Moreover, if a retailer also has fairly high gearing, the interest payments represent an additional fixed cost on the business.

These Fixed Charges are ‘Lease costs’ and ‘Interest on borrowing’ and need to be compared with the ‘available Operating Profit’ i.e. the Operating profit less Fixed charges.   (these can be found on the P&L ('Interest paid' and 'Operating Profit') and early in the Notes to the Accounts ('Lease expense'), after the Balance Sheet
(NB when you find the figures, check them with your finance colleagues). 

In other words, the Fixed Charge Cover (FCC) indicates the ability of a company to pay its Fixed Charges, irrespective of sales and profit performance. Failure to pay can result in liquidation.

The following analysis compares the ‘big four’ multiples in order to illustrate the calculation in practice.

Given that these are the most financially healthy retailers in the UK, other retailers could be vulnerable..

Some of the differences are interesting in that, for instance Morrisons, because it owns most of its shops, and has relatively little borrowing, combined with a good net margin, means that with an FCC of 13.3, Fixed Charge Payments are no burden to the company. However, in the case of Tesco and Sainsburys at 2.9 and 2.2 respectively, FCC is obviously more of an issue.....
Application to other retailers?

However, the real value of the ratio is in its application to most medium and smaller retailers that are running short of cash and are finding that Fixed Charge Payments are pushing them to the edge….

As in all cases of pending liquidation, those creditors that are first to spot the danger, can have the advantage of withdrawing their credit before the liquidator is appointed.
Ignoring the Fixed Charge Cover indicator?

If you still feel that all such matters are the responsibility of the Finance Department, remind yourself that if a customer goes bust owing you £150k, and your pre-tax net profit is 5%, you will need incremental sales of £3m to recover…

In which case, perhaps the application of Fixed Charge Cover analysis to your customers’ latest Annual Reports will help…?

Google's self-driving car for the high-focus NAM?

For those who need high-intensity preparation and in-depth post-rationalisation of encounters with the buyer, perhaps it is time to consider Google’s computer-controlled car as a must-have upgrade?

In the video, Google's self-driving car takes Steve Mahan, who is legally blind, to a Californian Taco Bell to pick up a snack.

Google released the video to celebrate that it has safely completed 200,000 miles of computer-lead driving.

The video shows Mahan sitting in the driver's seat as the car steers itself, using radar and lasers to make sure the road is clear. The car takes him through the drive-through of Taco Bell, then to the dry cleaners, a logical destination, given the trip’s continuous sudden-shock potential…

According to Google, the passenger in a Google car can take control in three ways: via a brake pedal on the passenger side that can stop the vehicle, via an emergency stop button on the centre console that can be reached by anyone in the vehicle, and by means of the laptop the Google representative is seen holding. In all three cases, the car can be stopped, but not remotely controlled except by the driver's steering wheel, he said. No mention was made of the need to reboot fast if the car ‘crashes’ in the fast lane..

And if all else fails, a final option can be a pit-stop at the dry cleaners…

For a comprehensive selection of Google April 1^st might-have-beens...

Choose your airline carefully….

Those NAMs tempted to use a value-carrier to escape the High Street doom and gloom are advised to check the airlines maintenance records before switching suppliers…

A pilot for a Chinese carrier requested permission and landed at Frankfurt for an unscheduled refuelling stop. The reason became soon apparent to the ground crew: The Number 3 engine had been shutdown previously because of excessive vibration, and because it didn't look too good. It had apparently been no problem for the tough guys on the ground back in China: as they took some sturdy straps and wrapped them around two of the fan blades and the structures behind, thus stopping any unwanted wind-milling (engine spinning by itself due to airflow passing thru the blades during flight) and associated uncomfortable vibration caused by the sub optimal fan.

Note that the straps are seat-belts ....how resourceful!  After making the "repairs", off they went into the wild blue yonder with another revenue-making flight on only three engines!  With the increased fuel consumption, they got a bit low on fuel, and just set it down at the closest airport (Frankfurt) for a quick refill.

That's when the problems started: The Germans, who are kind of picky about this stuff, inspected the malfunctioning engine and immediately grounded the aircraft. (Besides the seat-belts, notice the appalling condition of the fan blades.)  The airline operator had to send a chunk of money to get the first engine replaced (took about 10 days).  The repair contractor decided to do some impromptu inspection work on the other engines, none of which looked all that great either.  The result: a total of 3 engines were eventually changed on this plane before it was permitted to fly again.

And to think we were all worried about toys coloured with lead paint!

Why not have a stay-at-home weekend, from the NamNews Team!

The Future of the British High Street: Voice of Russia Radio (formerly Radio Moscow)

This is a recording of a radio discussion that will be broadcast next week involving the British Retail Consortium, The New Economics Foundation and NamNews, covering key issues and predictions affecting future viability of the High Street, from the perspective of key stakeholders.

Topics include:
- Need for commercial viability
- Role of mults, charity shops, & suppliers
- Domestic-retail balance
- Legal & Rating issues
- Banks as landlords
- Predictions ref. High St, out-of-town and online shares

FYI, Voice of Russia Radio is apparently No. 3 in the world to the BBC and Voice of America.
NB. For a priority copy of the new NamNews High Street Survival Recipe, contact bmoore@namnews.com

Pop-up shops: the ultimate in suck-it-and-see research?

Pop-up retail originated with fashion designers seeking to showcase new clothing lines. However with consumer spending deteriorating and as suppliers seek to cut the costs of product launches, pop-ups have become an interesting alternative route-to-consumer.

Breakthrough research?

As you know if a supplier’s brainstorming session results in a ‘great idea’, it can take nine months to secure a space on shelf

For a retailer, a ‘great idea’ can be an early morning presentation by a NAM, and with proper co-ordination the product can be on a shelf by noon.  By 1700 on the same day, the retailer can be in a position to double the order or delist the product…!

An instant test-market opportunity for suppliers

An (obvious) exaggeration, but pop-up shops can operate within the same model and time-frame, and can represent a real market-test opportunity for pro-active suppliers.

For those NAMs that get out occasionally, the usage by well-known brands is obvious, with GAP even kicking off a 60's style tour using a school bus as a mobile pop up store in the US.

With empty shops in the high street providing instant accommodation, a recent article lists some useful pros and cons for landlords and retailers

Living with the time-frame 

For suppliers that can operate in limited time-frames, a typical pop-up store can operate for as little as two days up to a period of four to six weeks and during this period the supplier can test-market a new product or brand and thus get first-hand feedback from customers, with an added plus of lower marketing costs compared with TV.

Meanwhile we await the emergence of a pop-up NAM as real evidence of the fact that pop-up shops are becoming a permanent part of the retail landscape…

Same-price pack-size shrinkage, a con or what?

Given the status of the brands and companies involved, it is obvious that the letter of the law is being adhered to, in that weights and measures are all accurately displayed on the pack. It is not even about the spirit of the law, in that it not the job of the legislature to maintain consumer trust in a brand. It is not about economics in that most research will prove that prices of ingredients, energy and labour have consistently risen faster than improvements in NAMs' ability to negotiate trade price increases of equivalent value…

'Everyone doing it'?

Moreover, it is not about the fact that 'everyone is doing it', in that the degree of collusion required to accurately preserve market/category equilibrium would be in clear breach of the law.

It is not even a new phenomenon, given that many of us cherish memories of our first bar of Cadbury’s Milk Flake, when it seemed so large one did not even object to sharing it with a younger brother..

Perception is the problem

No, pack size shrinkage is really about perception, the fact that a brand that has worked so hard and so long on convincing me that their combination of Product, Price, Presentation and Place is better than the competition in terms of value for money, suddenly, without consultation, destabilises that trust by allowing me to conclude that I am no longer getting what I thought it said on the tin… Moreover, if the brand’s marketing mix previously offered only a marginal advantage over the competitor’s offering, then the competitor suddenly becomes a serious contender for my attentions and even loyalty, at least until the next price rise.....

We are all savvy consumers
It is especially an insult to my intelligence as a savvy consumer, a person who has survived by learning never again to outsource product and service decision-making to marketers and retailers, and has set demonstrable value-for-money as a prerequisite for any purchasing decision.

What to do about it?

In fact, all the clues are available in the notes above:

If a brand makes a fundamental change in the Marketing Mix, it destabilises the market/category’s status quo, and needs to ‘re-sell’ me on its advantages over available alternatives, (via an up-to-date Buying Mix Analysis). 
I am not interested in boring stuff about ingredient, energy and labour cost increases, the media are full of it, in between the bits about political and financial corruption. 
I don’t want to know about those nasty retailers unfairly refusing to allow adequate and logical price increases.

I simply want assurance (and increasingly, proof) that the brand’s combination of Product, Price, Presentation and Place is so overwhelming that I would not even dream of considering alternatives…

Seemple, uh?       (Seemple = Shorthand for 'seems simple' ; Uh? = please read again )

Co-op profitability has a cost

For many years the Co-op was run as a ‘breakeven’ organisation in strict application of its shared-profits culture.

As anyone in mainstream business will appreciate, in order to result in breakeven, it is wiser to aim at say 5% net profit, and the result will probably be 0% or perhaps even 0.5% profit.

Reality of 'breaking even'

Aiming for breakeven in business can be a way of ensuring a loss-making year…

This breakeven approach and its consequential loss-making caused the failure of individual societies, resulting in them being absorbed into healthier parts of the movement. However, the Co-op still remained a confusing and inefficient trade partner for leading–edge suppliers, resulting in minimal levels of support, with most discretionary funds going to major customers that ran their businesses in a more traditional manner.

The penny drops…

Several years ago the Co-op apparently began to embrace the idea of making a profit, and even began to refer to ROCE and other KPIs in their annual reports.

All very encouraging for suppliers as the Co-op began to produce acceptable returns, encouraging increased investment of trade funding as a way of producing a viable alternative to the Big Four.

Testing the change in philosophy

The real test of this change in philosophy required the global financial crisis (a challenge to capitalism everywhere) to cause the Co-op to embrace the other side of the coin, cost-cutting and redundancies.

Latest reports indicate that the Co-op Group is preparing to further slash its food division’s workforce, as it seeks to cut costs amid tough trading at its grocery operation The job cuts in the food property team are part of its Unity Programme. This is the Co-op’s project to deliver a more co-ordinated strategy and efficiencies across over 4,800 retail trading outlets, including pharmacy, banking and funeral care.

The need for persistence

Despite the social cost, the Co-op needs to continue with this strategy, not only to maintain its profitability, but to demonstrate to its trading partners its determination to justify a level of partnership that compares with that currently given to the Big Four.

Above all, realistic suppliers need to support and cooperate with the Co-op, in this, the completion of their transition to ‘mainstream’ retailing…

Working out in the early hours….

If you find that managing the increasing pressures of the 9-5 NAM Agenda leaves little workout time to increase/decrease adrenaline levels, why not sacrifice sleep-time (+ four hours max means one is constantly wired, with less effort required to wind down/up….) join the NamNews Team and find a 24/7 gym?

NAMs, KAMs, Night owls, insomniacs, shift workers and other denizens of the dark are finding less need to fit their workout time into the nine-to-five world of ‘normal’ folk..

Increased availability

More gyms are remaining open round the clock, experts say, spurred by advances in surveillance and security technology, clients' ever more fluid work habits and a generation of multi-tasking consumers.

"At 6:00 a.m. you get the professionals going to work. Late morning you see a lot of stay-at-home moms. 

Extend your network

Overnight I tend to see more creative types," she said. "More piercings, more tattoos. I have met interesting people at three or four in the morning."

Go on, have a proper 24/7 weekend, from the NamNews Team!

The Battle Against Obsolescence in the High Street

The high street is successfully fighting for its life on many fronts, but in some categories it is a lost cause, and scarce resources should be focused on realistic revival prospects.

For instance, given the inevitable drift of business to new delivery systems like downloading, in categories such as DVD sale and rental, along with retailing of CDs, books and even games, it is important to distinguish denial from planned demise in a product or category lifecycle.  Anyone in doubt need only think of the declining fortunes/demise of Blockbuster, HMV, Borders and GameStop for some high-profile examples of the trend.

The inevitability of the life-cycle 

Essentially, it is important to accept that all brands go through a natural lifecycle from innovation to growth, maturity and decline in response to market demand.  Whilst the latter stages can be delayed, the process of prolonging active life usually becomes increasingly expensive and produces diminishing returns.  However, in some circumstances, the life of a brand can be prolonged profitably by constant innovation and ‘reinvention’ in the absence of serious threat from substitution.

Retail format life-cycle...

However, if we accept that a home entertainment retail format offering video-rental and sale, like a brand, has a life cycle, we need to acknowledge that the format passes through stages such as innovation, growth, maturity and decline, as night follows day…  Here the download alternative provides convenience, choice and ‘instant’ gratification in a way that is impossible for traditional outlets.  As the download providers take increasing shares of these categories, in time their low cost-base will allow them to complete the process via price-cutting the traditional outlets out of existence.  In these circumstances it is important for traditional home entertainment retailers not to deny the inevitable, but rather to proactively manage the maturity and decline of their format.

Meanwhile, at the receiving end... 

For store-owners, the ultimate question of how long the mature and decline phases will last has to be replaced by one reflecting the owner’s lifestyle expectation in terms of return on investment, coupled with their risk-profile (risk-averse, risk-neutral or risk-seeking).  This will help the owner to determine a satisfactory risk-reward relationship that will help them to decide whether to persevere for five or ten years, or seek a radical reinvention of the home entertainment format.   As entrepreneurs at heart, store-owners will be accustomed to making business decisions that offer a realistic balance of risk and reward in a market undergoing constant change.

Obsolescence is but another variable in the game….in which suppliers have a strategic role