Monday 18 July 2016

Post-Brexit opportunity: deck clearance vs. re-arrangement of deckchairs?

Governments’ pre-occupation with maintaining the ‘status quo’ provides us all with a temporary window where clarity of vision and a  modicum of decisiveness can help us to conduct a fundamental clear-out  of anything that does not contribute directly to business goal achievement.

In practice, this means getting back to basics, big time, while others still try to make sense of what is happening…

Essentially, despite the unprecedented Post-Brexit market conditions, in business we survive by driving sales or cutting costs, or a realistic combination of both. As we try to come to terms with Brexit fall-out, resulting in increasingly savvy consumers ‘making do’ and postponing purchase, thereby taking demand from the market, all growth will have to be achieved at the expense of competitors. In other words, we need to meet consumer needs better than the other guy, with tin contents always exceeding what it says on the label, whilst all costs that do not directly contribute to satisfying market need, have to be cut, to prevent others doing it for us…

1. Clarifying consumer and retailer needs

Despite our familiarity with the brand and an inclination not to try fixing what seems to be ‘working’, latest annual reports from both supplier and retailer show that companies are generating inadequate rewards for risk in the post-Brexit climate.

In fact, low or even negative interest rates – read between lines of Bank of England announcements – are causing companies to take false comfort from lower returns ‘in common with others in the same boat’…

In unprecedented times, random cut-backs can represent unacceptable risk. For this reason, consumer need has to be a starting point in establishing the real fit of our brand with the market, better than alternatives available, at both functional and emotional levels.

It is also crucial to keep in mind that consumers will increasingly buy easier, faster, closer, and more often, continuing to cause structural change in the retail market. In other words, given that the discounters are growing at the expense of brands, we all need to find ways of working profitably with Aldi and Lidl.

Similarly, our trade package comprising Product (brand performance) Prices and Terms, Presentation (how the offering is expressed) and Place (supply-demand chain and in-store logic) needs to be really tailored to individual customers, and demonstrably so. All excess will need to be trimmed back to release resources to augment inadequacies elsewhere, and not simply supplement margin.

Again, a cursory analysis of a customer’s latest annual report will indicate how our offering should be recast in order to show how it directly impacts and drives ROCE improvement. The fact that the buyer never mentions ROCE is not to say it is irrelevant, even in Post-Brexit times. In fact ROCE performance drives the entire business process. Those in doubt should reflect on the fate of companies that ignored this principle, even in the good times…!

2. Buying Mix Analysis – optimising competitive appeal

Our trade and consumer offerings are meaningless unless placed in a realistic market context of available alternatives, meaning related to other offerings to which retailers and consumers have access. Buying Mix Analysis can help

3. Driving Sales

Having identified degrees of competitive appeal above, a supplier is in a position to seek ways of driving sales. Again there are only four alternatives:
  • Encouraging customers to sell more of our current lines via full availability, adequate facings, tailored promotions and optimising shopper marketing, better than the competition
  • Selling our new products to current users, building on the trust established in our current products
  • Attracting new shoppers of similar profile to our brand-consumers to the store and offering them our current brands
  • ...and even selling our new brands to new traffic, who knows?
4. Cutting costs

While driving sales, knowing our competitive appeal and using customer/shopper need as the ultimate benchmark, we need to eliminate any redundant attributes of the offering, anything that is not actively contributing to customer and brand profitability. We thereby strip away anything that will not jeopardise the appeal of the offering, but will reduce cost…

In practice, this means reducing manufacturing, packaging and distribution costs by sourcing locally, lowering ATL expenditure to match actual consumer usage of media and redeploying where necessary. It also means communicating one-to-one with actual and potential users, and eliminating anything that is not fit for that purpose. In the same way, all trade terms and investment need to be related to expected performance via 100% compliance, with partners that adhere to the spirit rather than just the letter of the regulations, with trust as the essential ingredient…

5. Driving retailer ROCE

Using the output from 1-4 above, all moves should be incorporated into the retailer’s ROCE model, demonstrating how the brand is increasing net margin and improving capital rotation, taking overall ROCE from latest Annual Reports to where it needs to be (In spite of near zero interest rates, ROCE 15%, Net Margin 5%, Stockturn to 20 times/annum and Gearing 30% or below) without jeopardising the supplier’s own ROCE, in order to preserve their autonomy for both companies, better than the competition.

Post-Brexit survival will allow for nothing less…

Thursday 14 July 2016

Publicis - Walmart's New Primary Agency of Record

According to yesterday's NamNews, Walmart has entered into what is being described as a strategic partnership with Publicis Groupe that will give the retailer “unfettered access” to all of the holding company’s agencies and resources.

In practice this means Publicis becomes Walmart's Primary Agency of Record i.e. an advertising agency authorised by an advertiser to buy advertising space and/or time on its behalf.

More than that, it gives Walmart access to all agency resources, globally, in managing Walmart’s US advertising and in-store creative giving the retailer access to resources outside of marketing, including capabilities to support corporate reputation and technology that builds relationships with customers.

In other words, think state-of-art, uniform, co-ordinated, creative  management of all communication with customers..

Add whatever it takes in terms of deep-cut EDLP to regain and maintain market share, big time, and you have a new dynamic in the market..

Asda has to be part of this…

More here

Time for NAMs to conduct some what-ifs in exploring the impacts on their categories…?  .

Wednesday 6 July 2016

UEFA Euro Final, Paris, Sunday 10th July – urgent appeal from Wales…!

Amidst mounting anticipation re this evening’s match, a Welsh NamNews reader who had bought tickets to the UEFA Euro Final in Paris on Sunday 10th July, has contacted us.

The problem is that his bride-to-be, appreciating his passion for football, agreed to avoid possible Saturday clashes by settling for a Sunday wedding.

However, he completely forgot that Sunday 10th is his wedding day as he bought the tickets a few months before agreeing to the wedding date.

So he wants to know if anyone is interested in getting married......?

HT to AB

Monday 4 July 2016

Smartphone shopper-tracking, a privacy-value trade-off?

Presumably, smartphone tracking in the High Street will yield more information than 'standard' security cameras, albeit some inevitable under-counting because of opt-out moves by privacy-sensitive shoppers and non-phone citizens...?

According to The Daily Mail, retailers so far signed up to take part include Pret a Manger, Aldi, Oxfam, Pizza Hut, Superdrug, Thorntons, Dixons Carphone, Patisserie Valerie, Jack Wills, Tortilla, The Entertainer, Eurochange, Itsu, and Ed’s Easy Diner, via 1,000 sensors that will be placed in 81 towns and cities.

The issue for all stakeholders will be the nature of the additional insights harvested - other than names - via wifi linkage, and the use in terms of consumer benefits...

In other words, to escape labelling as 'another 'Big Brother' move, it is important that changes are made in shopper service levels are demonstrably related to the information gathered.

The question is whether the risk of negative reaction by post-Brexit savvy consumers and their representatives, is worth the trouble...

Monday 27 June 2016

Brexit for NAMs - Where Now?

In what will be seen to be one of the most fundamental and far-reaching developments affecting how we conduct the NAM Job, Brexit is sending a signal that the savvy consumer has added politics and trust to what defines being a stakeholder in today’s markets, bringing with it the realisation that politics is too important to be delegated  to the politicians.

...and we are all savvy consumers under the skin...

Business is still about reward for risk, fair share dealings, and above all, a need to build and maintain a consumer's trust that the contents will always exceed the description on the tin...

In this inevitable period of uncertainty, we need to revert to basic principles that in some cases can seem like cliches:
  • If the numbers don't add up, they probably don't
  • If I don't understand my business idea, what can I expect from a distracted buyer?
  • If I cannot make the product for less than the consumer is prepared to pay, why bother?
  • Continuous Satisfaction of consumer need has to be a fundamental driver, with trust an integral part of the equation...
Brexit, albeit a monumental leap in the dark, means the following:
  •  A fall in the value of the pound, meaning that exports will be cheaper, i.e. If your company is UK owned, there will be a positive impact, an advantage vs. imported competitors
  • However, brands that rely on imported ingredients will incur higher costs
  • Given the inevitable period of uncertainty, many major investment decisions will be put on hold, at least while the numbers are re-run...
  • Companies that set up in the UK to ensure 'easy' access to the EU will probably place relocation at the top of the agenda, although it is likely that a new UK government line-up will introduce lower corporation taxes by way of being an offer that few can refuse...
  • Above all, running the numbers will become a way of life i.e. The ability to calculate real cost and demonstrate value to the buyer will become increasingly important amidst the uncertainty...
  • A NAM's ability to calculate and factor in the risk associated will all business decisions will become a way of life... (even the ability to label ourselves, our company and the customer as risk-averse, risk-neutral or risk-seeking, and acting accordingly, will help...)
Given a reasonably open mind, Brexit will restore our faith in our common sense, and the use of that common sense as a criterion for making decisions.

In these unprecedented times, we the suppliers, retailers and consumers need to work together, using trust as our most valuable resource, keeping to the spirit rather than just the letter of the law or regulation, always aiming to deliver more than it says on the tin, recognising that opportunity lies available now for those that attempt to move forward using basic principles of acceptable reward for risk in business, while others await a return to normal…

Above all, using a slogan that worked well in other times, NAMs need to keep calm and carry on….