Consumers Buying More Premium Own-Label Ranges Despite Rising Prices; Tesco And Discounters Gain Share

All the major grocery retailers in the UK saw their sales fall over the 12 weeks to 28 November against tough comparatives with last year when Covid restrictions were reintroduced. The data from Kantar also suggests that rising food prices aren’t impacting people’s desire to treat themselves over the festive period.

Take home grocery sales fell by 3.8% during the period as consumers ate out more compared with 2020. However, sales remain strong compared with the market before the pandemic, and grocery spend was 7.0% higher in the latest 12 weeks than in 2019.

NamNews Implications:

• Key issue is growth of premium private label at the expense of equivalent national brands.
• The fact that the quality of premium private label can be equal or even better than national brands at the same price…
• …means better value for money…
• …and probably a permanent shift in allegiance.
• A backdrop of the remorseless growth of online and the discounters…
• …where higher pipeline inflation has not really kicked in yet.
• Means seatbelt tightening a default option for 2022…

#PremiumPrivateLabel #DiscounterShare #OnlineShare

WBA Exploring Sale Of Boots

Following on from rumours last month, a new report has suggested that Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) is lining up advisers to explore options for its Boots chain in the UK, including a sale that could value it at as much as £10bn.

According to Sky News, WBA will hire Goldman Sachs to examine the hiving off of the health & beauty chain, potentially via a sale or separate listing.

NamNews Implications:

• NAMs have two options:
• Await a formal announcement re new owners.
• Conduct some what-ifs on possible outcomes and steal a march on rivals.
• Either way, one outcome will be possible prices & terms disparities re a new retail rival.
• (…off or online…)
• In which case, best harmonise now before the new combo do it on your behalf…
• Or in the case of a PE purchase, prepare for a whole new way of dealing with Boots.
• See The Implications of Private Equity Takeover of a Mult

#TradeConcentration #Consolidation #Takeover

Aldi’s Christmas Ad The Most Effective

Research by Kantar, which combined consumer survey responses with facial recognition AI technology, has found Aldi’s ‘Kevin the Carrot’ campaign to be the most effective of 24 festive adverts tested this year.

It scored in the top 6% of all UK ads in terms of being both ‘distinctive’ and ‘enjoyable’, and was also the campaign that sparked the most conversation. After Aldi, Coca-Cola was the second-best overall, followed by Lidl...

NamNews Implications

• A particular emphasis on friends and family says it all...
• Note: Retailers (especially discounters!) came late to advertising!
• Watch again for proof positive

#DiscounterWinners

Issa Brothers Mulling Merger Of Asda And EG Group

The entrepreneurs and private equity partners TDR Capital have recently been reviewing options to break up their 6,000-strong global forecourt empire. However, Bloomberg News reported on Friday that a merger of their two businesses is being discussed to create a combined entity valued at around £26bn, including debt.

NamNews Implications:

• A listing in the short or even medium-term i.e. going public unlikely (debt)…
• Australian petrol sites sale a probability to simplify holdings (and raise some cash)
• Suppliers should anticipate amalgamation, if only to optimise buying power…

#Amalgamation #Simplification #CoreBusiness #Optimisation

Retailers Putting Up Prices At Fastest Pace In 30 Years Amid Early Christmas Shopping

Faced with mounting cost pressures, retailers in the UK are putting up prices at the fastest rate since 1990 whilst benefitting from early Christmas shopping due to fears over supply disruption.

In the CBI’s quarterly Distributive Trades Survey, the balance of retailers reporting higher selling prices stood at +77% in November. That was the highest level since May 1990, with the pace of rises expected to be broadly similar next month.

NamNews Implications:

• We have all experienced the inflation drivers in 2021.
• So no surprises then…
• Only issue is by how much?
• How about 5% for starters…
• …or perhaps a more realistic 10%?

#Inflation #CostPrices

Lidl GB Returns To Profit; Sets New Store Target

Latest accounts for the year to 28 February 2021 show Lidl GB recorded a pre-tax profit of £9.8m, compared to a loss of £25.2m in the previous 12 months when it invested heavily in store openings, recruitment, and its supply chain.

Lidl’s total sales rose 12% to £7.7bn, boosted by 55 new openings and raised demand for food & drink in supermarkets during the pandemic.

NamNews Implications:

• NPBT 0.1% is still very slender, but on the right side of breakeven.
• And these discounters have more experience of excelling on slender margins than most…
• And Lidl continuing to invest during loss-making lockdown…
• …shows they are still a threat to the UK mults.
• Meanwhile, Brexit caused ‘an increase in administration for importing and exporting goods in and out of the UK’
• ‘Our stores in Serbia and Switzerland are very used to dealing with these issues’…
• …referring to countries that are outside the EU but do much of their trade with the bloc.
• i.e. All showing Lidl are still a threat to the UK mults.

#DiscounterThreat #DiscountersProfitable

A major first: Aldi Reveals Its Sales And Profits In Ireland For The First Time

The discounter, which has a 12.7% share of the country’s grocery market, usually wraps its Irish figures into accounts filed for its UK business. However, in an extensive interview with The Irish Times, the Managing Director of Aldi Ireland, Niall O’Connor, revealed for the first time its local revenues and profits.

Aldi Ireland’s pre-tax profit margin was 3.6% last year, compared to 2.1% for Aldi UK.

NamNews Implications:

• A breakthrough NamNews item…a precedent for all.
• Astonishing that Aldi have lifted the lid…
• Hopefully this means other retailers will follow?
• (Especially given the paragraph above on Financial sunlight…
• …meaning retailers with UK registered HQs have to divulge Irish profits).
• If Tesco and M&S go it will be difficult for the others not to…

#RetailMarginsIreland #EUDisclosureRules

Niall O’Connor, Group Managing Director at Aldi Ireland. Photograph: Alan Betson

Unilever Sells Tea Business To Private Equity Firm

CVC Capital Partners is buying the bulk of Unilever’s tea division for €4.5bn after beating off competition from rival private equity groups in an auction.

The business being sold is called ekaterra, which controls a portfolio of 34 tea brands, including Lipton, PG Tips, Pukka Herbs, T2, and TAZO, that generated revenues of €2bn in 2020. It employs around 20,000 people worldwide with 11 production factories in four continents and tea estates in three countries

NamNews Implications:

• NamNews readers are familiar with the PE playbook…
• Rivals can anticipate a new kind of competition in the brands sold off.

#TeaCategory

A weekend warning from the NamNews Team!

#hospitality #lockdown

Amazon’s Just Walk Out Tech ‘Makes Every Other Grocery Store Obsolete’

Amazon's Just Walk Out technology removes the need for cashiers and significantly increases the speed at which customers can shop and exit the store. More importantly, it saves Amazon millions of dollars in labour costs annually in every store, providing a significant competitive advantage. 

“Between 2027 and 2030, Amazon has the potential to sell more groceries than Kroger. Between 2030 and 2035, it has the potential to sell more groceries than Walmart".

NamNews Implications:

• A pointer for all retailers?
• And if Amazon also supply the technology…
• Watch this space…

#Inovation #WalkOutTech

Dunnes Takes Lead In Irish Grocery Market As Shoppers Prepare For Christmas

Latest figures from Kantar show grocery sales in Ireland fell by 4.8% year-on-year over the 12 weeks to 31 October as more normal trading conditions returned to the market. However, growth is still strong compared with pre-pandemic levels and sales were up 8.9% versus the equivalent period in 2019.

Emer Healy, retail analyst at Kantar, commented: “October brought the full easing of Covid-19 restrictions as well as a well-timed bank holiday weekend and shoppers have been making the most of newfound freedoms. Dining out is firmly back on the table, bringing a welcome boost to the hospitality sector as friends and families returned to bars and restaurants. With fewer meals eaten around the kitchen table, we’ve seen supermarket sales drop by 8.4% in the latest four weeks. Irish shoppers spent €86.1m less on groceries this month compared with the equivalent period last year when the nation was in lockdown.”

NamNews Implications:

• Aldi and Lidl with a combined market share of 25.4% vs mults average of 22%…
• …and growing at an average 12.5% vs pre-Lockdown.
• Shows that the discounters remain a threat…
• …especially with high inflationary pressures in the pipeline.

#IrelandDiscounters #PostLockdown

Johnson & Johnson To Split In Two

One will operate its Consumer Health division and the other will focus on its Pharmaceutical and Medical Devices units.

The move will see the company separate its Consumer Health business into a new publicly-traded company, controlling brands such as Neutrogena, Aveeno, Tylenol, Listerine, Johnson’s, and Band-Aid.

The Consumer Health business is expected to generate revenue of approximately $15bn this year and, following the planned separation, the new company would generate sales in over 100 countries.

NamNews Implications:

• This move will endow each company with promotional flexibility
• …without compromising the other.
• Rivals need to anticipate even more focused initiatives from the separated companies.

#PostLockdownSplits #NewNorm

Tesco Bucks Market Decline; Grocery Inflation On The Rise

Latest figures from Kantar show take home grocery sales fell by 1.9% over the 12 weeks to 31 October, although they are still 7.3% higher than pre-pandemic levels in 2019.

NamNews Implications:

• “Already, (worried?) households visit an average of 3.3 supermarkets per month in order to find the best value for money.”
• Customers are also getting ahead on shopping for the big day itself.
• i.e. Frozen poultry sales are 27% higher year-on-year…
• With their sales rising by 0.3% over the 12 weeks, Tesco was the only retailer to achieve YoY growth!
• But note Lidl’s 12.5% increase on 2019….
• …and Ocado + 36.7% on 2019.

#GroceryMarketShares #RisersFallers #Discounters #Online

Supermarket Buyers Using Delay Tactics To Thwart Supplier Cost Price Increases

According to a report by trade publication The Grocer, retailers are asking suppliers for increasingly complex cost breakdowns for individual ingredients, packaging, storage, transportation, as well as manufacturing and labour overheads and profit margins to justify any price increases.

The report highlighted that signoff processes are also lengthening and often requires a level of detail only an ‘open book’ supplier would be expected to share.

NamNews Implications:

• Because of the relative size and importance of a major customer…
• …NAMs may not take the risk of ‘getting mad’.
• But for sure these buyer tactics will encourage NAMs to ‘get even’.
• And in unprecedented market conditions…
• …there are many ways of getting even.
• (better still, suppliers, why not focus on optimising your good customer relationships?)

#CostPriceIncreases #DirtyTricksNegotiation

Tesco Slips Down Price Ranking

Despite moves to improve its competitiveness, particularly against the discounters, a price ranking has found Tesco to be one of the most expensive supermarkets in the country.

The analysis by consumer watchdog Which? compared the prices for a basket of 23 everyday items throughout October, both own label and branded.

With a total of £28.64, Britain’s largest grocery retailer came in sixth place – third from the bottom and only ahead of Ocado (£29.95) and Waitrose (£33.81).

Aldi remained the cheapest overall, at £24.24, just ahead of Lidl on £24.97. Asda was third and the cheapest big four supermarket, with the basket costing £25.94. It was followed by Sainsbury’s (£27.71) and Morrisons (£28.31).

Which? also carried out a more extensive survey covering 77 items. This included more branded items, and so Aldi and Lidl were excluded.

Tesco also had a poor showing in this analysis, coming second from bottom as shown below:

NamNews Implications:

• Given upcoming pressures on consumer disposable income…
• Aldi’s 15% price advantage over Tesco has to make a difference.
• And even on a branded-only basis, Asda has an 8.6% advantage over Tesco.
• Add a large dose of inflation…
• …and budget for an escalation of retail price war?
• (Tesco is not going sit on the sidelines while Aldi capitalises on this price advantage in the coming inflationary Winter...)

#PriceWar #Inflation #PriceCompetition

M&S To Roll Out Opticians Service

Marks & Spencer is rolling its Opticians service to 55 stores over the next 18 months.

The decision follows an initial trial in five stores, during which the service is said to have received a strong customer satisfaction rating

NamNews Implications:

• Golden rule in retail:
• ’try it and if it works…’
• i.e. anticipate a quick roll-out to 55 stores for M&S.
• (with other mults unlikely to remain on the sidelines)
• And McKesson sell-offs revitalised under new asset management.

#Opticians #retail

Study Shows Supermarket Shoppers Switched Brands During Pandemic

Only 38% of consumers in the UK remained loyal to their usual brands in supermarkets during the pandemic.

The research by artificial intelligence specialist Antuit.ai found that consumers who switched were more likely to have traded down on grocery brands during the period than those who traded up from own-label to brands. 20% said they traded down from brands to own-label during the pandemic, compared to just 14% who traded up.

NamNews Implications:

• Curious that a move to private label is still regarded as a ‘trading down’ move.
• See Gen 4 of our paper ‘Four Generations of Private Label’
• That said, ‘Saving money was the main motivation for those switching to own label (55%)’…
• …and branded suppliers need to factor that in.
• The key is reassessing relative competitive appeal within your post-Lockdown categories…
• …whilst ensuring you include private label (all Generations) as ‘available competitors’.

#PrivateLabel #Competition

Disappointing Quarter Amazon; Facing Soaring Costs

 Amazon reported a big fall in profits yesterday and highlighted that it was facing billions of dollars in extra costs to manage supply chain and labour shortage challenges over the key festive period.

After benefitting from the surge in online shopping during the pandemic, Amazon’s third-quarter results disappointed Wall Street. Net income fell by 50% to $3.16bn on total revenues up only 15% to $110.8bn – the company’s slowest rate of growth since 2015.

NamNews Implications:

• Fortunately for Amazon, they have not even started to use accumulated muscle…
• Meanwhile, to maintain its consumer-centric reputation they will have to absorb costs:
• labour rates
• supply chain bumps
• But there are limits, even for Amazon.
• i.e. suppliers will feel the pain before consumers…

#AmazonSlows #ProfitSqueeze

Coca-Cola Trialling New Refillable Concept

Coca‑Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP) has started trialling a new refillable, on-the-go soft drinks solution.

The pilot is taking place in Stockholm, Sweden, at a PBX convenience store in collaboration with GLACIAL beverage containers.

The concept allows consumers to buy or bring their own drinks containers to fill, choosing from more than 60 flavours, including the Coca-Cola, Fanta, Sprite, FuzeTea and Smartwater brands.

NamNews Implications:

• In effect, moving dispensers from behind the bar to the front…
• i.e. from on to off-trade…
• ‘Simple’ and neat…
• “Now why didn’t I think of that…?”

#Refillables #Creativity

Iceland Giving Away Free Food

Iceland Foods has rolled out a new scheme called ‘Free on Last Day of Life’ as part of its efforts to reduce food waste. The initiative will see online shoppers offered free products when the last day of shelf life has been reached and no other stock is available.

Traditionally, food items delivered by Iceland has a minimum shelf life of at least two days. However, products close to expiry will now be given away to prevent them being wasted.

NamNews Implications:

• ‘…we to have find an innovative way to combat (food waste)…’ - says it all, for most retailers.
• But what makes Iceland different is the imaginative way they package the idea…
• Their ‘Free on Last Day of Life scheme’ not only helps reduce food waste but also supports our customers.
• (in a way that also grabs headlines….)
• Watch this space…

#FoodWaste #Innovation #Creativity

Unilever Warns Of More Price Rises To Counter Increasing Costs

Alongside its third-quarter results today, Unilever became the latest consumer goods manufacturer to warn that more price rises were on the cards as it battles spiralling input cost inflation.

Over the three months to 30 September, the group’s underlying sales rose a slightly better-than-expected 2.5% to €13.5bn. This was driven by an average price increase of 4.1% across its product range which counteracted a 1.5% fall in volumes.

NamNews Implications:

• P&G, Colgate-Palmolive, General Mills, Kimberly-Clark, Nestlé, PepsiCo and now Unilever…
• Price rises are coming.
• The only issue is whether average increases of 4.1% for Unilever…
• …are anything like enough?
• i.e. can we anticipate even steeper hikes to come?
• Meanwhile, rivals in Unilever’s categories might benefit from a line by line comparison with Unilever brands and geographies…?

#PriceInflation #SupplyChainInflation

EG Group Pulls Out Of £750m Deal To Buy Asda’s Petrol Stations

After agreeing to buy Asda, Mohsin and Zuber Issa, the founders of EG, and their private equity backers TDR Capital, announced plans in February to finance the acquisition in part by selling the supermarket’s petrol stations to their own forecourts business for £750m.

Asda will retain the petrol forecourts business and the associated revenue and profits. However, the £750m expected from the deal will now come from £500m of debt and £250m of its own cash.

NamNews Implications:

• £500m extra debt means sweating Asda more…
• Apart from pressures on costs of goods and shelf price increases.
• Fingers crossed re the £1bn sale of Asda distribution assets.

#PrivateEquity #Asda #RetailDebt

Grocery Sales Down, Prices Up; Tesco Outperforms Market

Take-home grocery sales fell by 1.2% over the 12 weeks to 3 October, partly because the reduced availability of petrol led to shoppers limiting the number of trips they made to supermarkets.

Despite the dip, the data from Kantar shows sales remain 8.1% higher than they were before the pandemic and every retailer recorded better sales compared with the same period in 2019.

NamNews Implications:

• Key for suppliers to compare their sales with anticipatory Christmas shopping by cautious shoppers.
• Despite relatively little share movement, worth comparing the detail re your business…
• NB. the discounters are still an issue for Big Retail, despite counteracting moves by the mults…

#LockdownResults #MultsShares

Tesco Posts Impressive Results After Defying Supply Chain Disruption, But Challenges Ahead

Tesco raised its full-year profit forecast today after reduced costs related to the pandemic and its strong supply chain helped it deliver better-than-expected first-half results.

Tesco saw its like-for-like sales in the UK climb 1.2% over the 26 weeks to 28 August. This followed a 0.5% rise in the first quarter, accelerating to 2% in the second as comparatives softened due to the easing of Covid restrictions in the summer last year.

NamNews Implications:

• ‘UK’s biggest player was able to leverage its supplier relationships and distribution capability to maintain good levels of product availability…
• …events such as Euro 2020 and staycations helped.’
• The key for suppliers is to compare their Tesco performance by format, geography and category.
• Rest assured that Tesco’s ‘bumps in the road’ will be less than those of rivals.
• After all, every little helps… (to ward off PE predators…)

#PrivateEquity #SupplyShortages #Christmas

HFSS Restrictions Offer Opportunities In Convenience Channel

Despite millions of pounds being at risk from the upcoming HFSS restrictions, new analysis highlights some opportunities for retailers and brands in the convenience channel.

The UK Government will introduce new rules for high fat, sugar and salt (HFSS) products in October 2022. They will restrict the advertising of HFSS brands, volume promotions, and the display of HFSS products in-store.

NamNews Implications:

• Stores smaller than 2,000 sq. ft. are an obvious opportunity for some suppliers.
• However, many of whom cannot afford to drill down to that level of coverage, post-Lockdown.
• Making it key to enhance supplier-wholesaler relationships…
• Fast…
• Meanwhile, for stores above 2,000 sq. ft., see the detail of the IRI analysis…

#HFSS #PromoRestrictions

Future Of Morrisons To Be Decided By Auction This Weekend

The UK’s takeover regulator has ruled that the four-month-long fight for Morrisons will be decided by an auction between two private equity groups on Saturday. (details)

NamNews Implications:

• Obviously going to the wire.
• Either way, Morrisons will be PE owned by November…
• Needing a whole new way of managing by NAMs
• See ‘The implications of Private Equity takeover of a Mult’

#MorrisonsFuture #PrivateEquity

Suppliers Seeking Support To Push Through Price Increases In Coming Weeks

Higher supply chain costs are expected to drive up prices in supermarkets by at least 5% in the coming weeks, with more increases to follow.

NamNews Implications:

• Time to take a 5% increase for granted...?
• Perhaps some what-ifs re 10% increases in your category might be of benefit?
• More importantly, it is essential to place these inevitable increases within a realistic context of:
• Shell-shocked consumers emerging from the trauma of 18 month lockdown
• To face the uncertainties of job security
• Increased taxation vs lower public services
• A super-savvy consumer better able to calculate ingredient cost in foods
• More determined to demand demonstrable value for money
• At the very least, this will result in a reduction in demand for products that do not have a clear competitive edge over alternatives available
• Welcome to the new norm of consumer demand...

#Inflation #PriceIncreases #ConsumerDemand