Realistic Optimism, a keynote for the New Norm…

Success in business in unprecedented times means being able to accept the realities of the ‘here & now’ and going back to basics while rivals await a return to the old normal… 

As we approached the fourth (!) anniversary of Lockdown, and my family celebrated Mother’s Day in our favourite local restaurant, crowded to capacity with an eight-person queue awaiting tables, it struck me that despite the havoc wreaked by Lockdown fallout, good businesses that consistently delivered more than it says on the tin, have never had it so good. 

In fact, those businesses that refused to fall into a rabbit hole in search of Lockdown causes, but instead focused on dealing with the effect, going back to the basics of establishing what business are we in, agreeing consumer need, defining how we could meet that need consistently, and meet it better than available alternatives, every time, are doing well…

Recognising that the greatest casualty of Lockdown was trust, in that shell-shocked consumers now believe nobody. Trust was further diminished via a succession of moves by brands trying to cope with unprecedented cost increases. These moves, including shrinkflation, skimpflation i.e. ingredient dilution and drip-pricing, saw brand owners dilute hard-won brand equity by insulting the intelligence of their most loyal and increasingly savvy consumers in their assumption that the changes would not be noticed…

Moreover, when challenged, the use of Letter-of-the-Law defences, such as ‘full indications‘ of value re weight/volume declarations on pack, simply drew attention to the fact that consumers make their decisions to purchase based on perception, Spirit-of-the-Law ‘facts’, and retaliate via ‘tell-a-friend’ complaints to their social networks.

Thus years, even decades of building trust in the brand, that guarantee of consistency in offering, was traded for a theoretical gain in product profitability, as brand loyals switched to more trustworthy rivals and even own-label. Moreover, big, powerful brands that increased prices way above inflation ‘because they could’ are now experiencing loss of demand as consumers resist the scale of the brand premium and switch to own-label, find it comparable in quality and then have to be won back to the brand at extra marketing cost…

For the latest insights re the extent of Lockdown fallout, a stroll down any High Street will reveal rows of barbershops that are empty, save for a single barber consulting his mobile as he awaits a possible ‘walk-in’. Adjoining them will be pubs with too few drinkers for time of day, interspersed with restaurants that have more staff than guests…

The pattern is repeated amongst shops and supermarkets that are trying to cope with diminished demand, attempting to serve the needs of uncertain but increasingly savvy shoppers that demand demonstrable value for money, every time.

Meanwhile, the new Big Four mults are Tesco, Sainsbury, Aldi and Lidl, as Morrisons and Asda try to compete under the extra constraints of servicing excessive debt.

The evidence of Lockdown Fallout is all around us. This is our market in the here and now.

As practical business people, we need to optimise our business model within a context of these new realities. 

Welcome to doing business in the New Norm…

The one positive aspect emerging from the Lockdown turmoil is that in times of unprecedented market disruption, business opportunities abound, in that with many rivals awaiting a return to normal, those businesses that can accept market conditions ‘as is’, re-engineer their offering to meet the real needs of savvy consumers, better than available alternatives, and deliver more than it says on the tin, every time, have to win…

In short, those businesses that can ‘park’ issues like the cause of Lockdown and instead focus on managing its effect, have more chance of success in optimising the available opportunities.

Given that trust was the greatest casualty of Lockdown, the restoration of consumer trust in brands, both supplier and retailer, has to be a priority. Consumers should not have to second-guess at every stage of the buying journey. Moreover, given that the FMCG model is based on the fact that causing the consumer to make their first purchase of a brand is such an expensive process, the sale is made at a loss. It is only when the user’s expectations are exceeded by brand performance that they make a repeat purchase with less inducement that we break even on that second sale. Then, with luck, the second purchase leads to a third, at which point some profit is made. Trust is the basis of this process and has to be preserved above all else…

Given that in flat-demand markets, any growth comes at the expense of rivals – doing basic things better than the available alternatives has to be the way forward. This means being completely open-minded re assessing business and brand attributes in terms of need satisfaction compared with competitor offerings of their Product, Price, Presentation and Place combinations. Only if we can conclude that we have some competitive advantage (or can adjust the elements of our marketing mix to deliver a difference that satisfies a consumer) can we proceed…

The next reality has to be the current state of the customer base. We have to accept that the new Big Four mults are now Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Aldi and Lidl, as Morrisons and Asda slowly succumb to the market realities of servicing debt that became excessive when interest rates suddenly reverted to a more normal 5%+ after decades of artificially maintained near-zero costs of borrowing.

Although private equity-owned companies are measured in multiples of EBITDA, i.e. pre-tax Net Profit is less important, until it comes to refloating or selling the company, trying to grow market share by investing in price reduction makes servicing debt even more challenging. Excessive financial re-engineering only adds to the doubt…

The quick answer can be to sell off assets to help reduce debt; meaning reduce the size of the estate to a point where the company is more suited to the New Norm private-equity business model.

Add radical changes of company culture/management style resulting in the loss of key people and the result can mean that recovering lost share and growing the business becomes near impossible…

Post-Lockdown retailing was made for the discounters. Aldi and Lidl are each significantly larger than Tesco globally and are privately-owned with low levels of debt. They are thus capable of optimising UK market conditions in terms of growing sales and market share via good quality and low prices.

Furthermore, when necessary, they can choose to run their UK operations at a loss to achieve their ambitions. They will continue to grow share at the expense of Asda and Morrisons without fear of adequate retaliation…

Taking a longer view, the advent of retail media will radically change the financial dynamics of UK retailers. The sale of first-party data allowing access to a brand’s shoppers in the aisle will generate significant incremental and high-margin revenue for retailers that can supply good quality data via a large assortment of branded goods.

However, in the process, this will limit retailers’ ability to optimise the potential of consumer demand for own-label by causing them to have to maintain their current 50/50 split of brand and own-label in their assortments. This Retail Media revenue can be used to supplement the bottom line, allowing retailers to compete aggressively on price…

However, retail media growth will cause problems for the discounters in that with the 10/90 split of brand and surrogate label, they will not have sufficient brand data to sell. They will, therefore, have to radically change the business model to something closer to a 50/50 split by offering more brands in their assortments, or experience loss of market share as the price wars intensify…

All of these are the new realities and must be factored into business strategies. Above all, given that the uncertainties will continue, suppliers need to carefully monitor the financial health of their main customers, keeping in mind that bankruptcy happens very slowly and then too suddenly to allow any remedial action. This means continuously calculating the incremental sales required to recover losses when a customer goes bust.

There is still considerable Lockdown fallout damage lurking within supplier and retailer businesses, and it is crucial that you take remedial action before you read about another ‘unexpected’ casualty in your morning’s NamNews bulletin.

Realistic optimism means effectively managing these market realities in the New Norm, better than the next guy by applying the basics…

Tesco Must Change Clubcard Prices Logo After Losing Lidl Trademark Appeal

Tesco has lost its appeal against a ruling that it infringed Lidl’s trademark, with it now facing a costly rebranding of its Clubcard Prices scheme.

In April 2023, the discounter won a legal case against the UK’s biggest grocery retailer over the use of a yellow circle on a square blue background to promote its ‘Clubcard Prices’ offers.

Lidl had originally sued Tesco in 2020, shortly after it adopted a colour scheme that was similar to the German firm’s company logo.

After the case was heard at London’s High Court last year, the Judge issued a ruling that said Tesco had taken “unfair advantage of the distinctive reputation” for low prices held by Lidl’s trademarks.

Weeks after Lidl won the legal battle, the High Court ruled that the discounter could have an injunction to stop Tesco from copying its logo.

Tesco’s lawyers argued it was unnecessary to impose an injunction and that its infringement of Lidl’s trademark could be resolved by paying a small amount of damages. It was highlighted at the time how difficult it would be for Tesco to remove all the Clubcard Prices logos in its stores, with the cost estimated at nearly £8m.

Tesco sought to overturn the trademark infringement ruling at a hearing last month, but today, the Court of Appeal kept with the original decision. The court did overturn a decision on copyright in Tesco’s favour, but the group will now have to stop using its Clubcard Prices logo in the current form.

A Lidl spokesperson welcomed the decision, saying: “We expect Tesco now to respect the court’s decision and change its Clubcard logo to one that is not designed to look like ours.”

Tesco stated that it planned to update the logo shortly, with a spokesperson saying: “We are disappointed with the judgment relating to the colour and shape of the Clubcard Prices logo but would like to reassure customers that it will in no way impact our Clubcard Prices programme.”

NamNews Implications:

• Fortunately, the Clubcard Prices idea is now so embedded…
• …Tesco can take the £8m hit…
•  …produce a ‘modernised’ logo sufficiently distant from Lidl…
• …and get on with what really matters.

The Changing Retail Landscape: Reversible Trends or Permanent Shifts?

The past four years since the first Lockdown have seen fundamental changes and unprecedented trends develop that materially affect supplier and retailer businesses everywhere.

Whilst it can be left to others to (hopefully) explain the cause and purpose of the global Lockdown, pragmatic business people have to focus on how to cope with and optimise business opportunities amidst the resulting fallout. A key step has to be identifying the main trends emerging, where they are headed, how they affect us, and what to do about it…

Given that the greatest casualty of Lockdown was trust, we now have to deal with a world in which no one takes anything at face value, be it supplier, retailer or brand, and they want demonstrable value for money vs. available alternatives. Moreover, we have to deliver more than it says on the tin every time, to ensure profitable repeat purchases. If the consumer has to second-guess every element of the offering from a brand using letter-of-the-law rather than spirit-of-the-law assurances, then an alternative offering will probably appear more attractive…

Therefore, trust has to form the bedrock of all our relationships with consumers (See our August Editorial - Trust in the brand.

Shift from Brand to Own-Label:

Given the unprecedented increases in the cost of living arising from inflation-based price increases, it was inevitable that consumers would have to compromise on their need for brands and ‘settle’ for equivalent own-label products.

Brand owners were traditionally able to capitalise on a perceptible difference in quality by charging a brand premium. The problem for brand owners is that a consumer forced to settle for own-label may find the product was ‘not as bad as they were led to believe’. They may begin to query the size of the brand premium and may require extra inducement to return to the brand when things ‘revert to normal’…

Therefore, to maintain the current 55% (brand) to 45% (own-label) relationship, brands will have to moderate shelf-price increases in the face of retail brand improvements, and also advertise more effectively to brand loyals in the aisle via retail media, rather than via increasingly wasteful traditional media.

Meanwhile, it will be in retailers’ interest to try to preserve current brand/own-label relative shares in order to attract incremental retail media revenues. Thus, it is unlikely the current 55/45 split will reverse in the new norm…

Shift from Mults to the Discounters:

Again, unprecedented cost of living pressures has caused mult-loyals to move from major retailers ‘down’ to Aldi and Lidl in a search for more economic purchases via cheaper surrogate labels. As with own-label, many found the discounter experience was not ‘as bad as expected’, represented real value for money and helped them challenge the premium associated with shopping in the mults. All this on a brand / surrogate label balance of 10/90…

As long as current levels of inflation continue, it is unlikely that the appeal of the discounters will diminish, so they will continue to grow share at the expense of the mults.

Moreover, given that Lidl and Aldi are each bigger than Tesco globally (global sales: Aldi £123bn, Lidl £86bn, Tesco £65bn), each of the discounters can afford to sell at a loss in order to drive their UK market shares, if necessary…

However, with the advent of retail media, another dynamic enters the mult/discounter relationship. As you know, retail media networks are driven by the availability of good quality first-party data i.e. insights derived from measurable shopping behaviour arising from retailer loyalty card-based purchases of national brands. This means that for the mults, purchasing behaviour of their shoppers can be more valuable than basket contents. If necessary, the incremental revenue arising from the sale of this access to shoppers in the aisle can be used to cut shelf prices and retrieve share from the discounters.

In order to compete by securing retail media revenue, the discounters will have to adjust their brand/surrogate label balance to something like 50/50 from the current 10/90. It is probable the discounters will make this change before they surrender market share. It all depends on their global willingness to run local UK losses to maintain current momentum…

Shift from Primary Routes to Omnichannel Routes to Consumer:

Given that Lockdown has radically changed consumer value systems, we are in a consumer-centric new norm. In other words, those consumers who have survived, albeit under enormous pressure re their jobs, homes, increasing cost of living and constant uncertainty, they know their value. In return for their custom, they want to be able to buy anytime, anywhere, any place, in whatever way they require. This means suppliers will have to make their products available via every possible route to the consumer or suffer a loss of share to more flexible rivals. Suppliers will have to find ways of balancing fulfilment costs by supplying direct or via outsourcing, managing all prices & terms harmoniously in the process.

Either way, it is inevitable that the cost-to-serve will increase, making diminishing net margins a feature of the new norm. And having experienced omnichannel convenience, it is unlikely that new norm consumers will revert to limited access…

Shift from Offline to Online:

Success online means living with Amazon, operating to their standards of consumer-centricity, and still losing money… Many organisations entered online without realising the true cost of online fulfilment, with consumers unwilling to pay more than £5 delivery fees for drops that cost up to £25 to reach their front door. Meanwhile, Amazon was allowed by the market to take 30 years to gain a degree of coverage that enables it to make up to three parcel drops with each van stop, while rivals have to drive perhaps ten miles between stops.

These online rivals, along with traditional bricks & mortar retailers, also have to compete with Amazon’s 500m-strong catalogue in terms of available range. And as far as retail media revenues are concerned, Amazon are already achieving $40bn+ per annum.

When it comes to categories like healthcare, Amazon is in a position to offer diagnosis based on a combination of data from wearable tech, their knowledge of consumer lifestyle, consumption habits, food & non-food, and fulfil prescriptions to fit, deliver to patients’ homes and check progress. Compare that with a pharmacy’s current capabilities…

Moreover, with Boots currently for sale again, a £6bn acquisition could give Amazon an opportunity to provide a full national healthcare service at a stroke…

Shift from Providing More Than it Says on the Tin to Shrinkflation, Skimpflation and Slack-filling:

One of the more ominous trends arising from Lockdown fallout is the tendency of established brands to trifle with the trust of brand loyals by attempting to disguise price increases via a combination of shrinkflation, skimpflation and slack-filling. Regular readers will be aware of the ‘rationales’ put forward to justify the moves and defend against inevitable criticism.

Brand owners continue to point out that pack details give all necessary information, thus meeting letter-of-the-law requirements, ‘forgetting’ that consumers are driven by perception, the spirit-of-the-law i.e. their expectation based on years of brand loyalty, causing them to become increasingly aggrieved at their perception of being short-changed by a hitherto trusted favourite brand.

This anger may even result in them telling-a-friend: “Please me, and I will tell one friend. Disappoint me and ten friends will learn of my displeasure”. But in the new norm of social media influencers, multiply this impact by ten or even thousands to gauge the potential damage to brand franchise…

Shift from Near Zero Interest Rates to Current Normal Rates:

Following decades of artificially based near-zero interest rates that mis-footed private equity purchases of large retailers when suddenly faced with new norm borrowing costs, it was inevitable that the change to reality would cause tensions in some businesses. Recent startups, based on the assumption of continuing low rates, fell into the same trap. These positions will be difficult, if not impossible, to unwind.

And of all the trends outlined above, it is highly unlikely that current interest rates will revert to near-zero levels in the next decade, if ever. Too much damage has been done by Lockdown, and we are now in repair mode for the foreseeable future.

Overall, it appears that these unprecedented changes and trends are irreversible, and suppliers taking the risk of forecasting beyond one year ahead might benefit from acting on that basis…

Trust In The Brand, A Key Casualty Of Lockdown Fallout…

Given that a key casualty of Lockdown fallout was the consumer’s loss of trust in almost everything, their loss of faith in brands should come as no surprise.

Apart from the obvious pressures of cost of living increases honing their super-savvy skills, causing them to be satisfied with nothing less than demonstrable value for money, and making them supersensitive to the most subtle of shrinkflation moves. Then, despite the ‘reassurances’ of letter-of-the-law statements on the pack, they prefer to rely on spirit-of-the-law perception in their judgement of brand trustworthiness… Therefore, the fact that the pack copy clearly states that quantity contained therein, the damage to consumer perception (spirit-of-the-law) is caused on opening the pack.

Thus, trust that has taken years to build is dismissed in a careless attempt to disguise a price increase. In other words, the consumer’s confident reliance on the character, ability, strength, expectation, faith, hope, assurance, expectation and certainty or truth of the brand has been compromised…

Consumers like to outsource their thinking and ideally their decision-making. In other words, they prefer to rely on guidance from experts i.e. they effectively delegate their money matters to the banks, their politics to the government, their health to the medics, and legal issues to the lawyers. The past three years have changed all that…

Consumers that have survived Lockdown fallout have learned the hard way that they have to think for themselves, relying on common sense and gut feeling. But critical thinking takes time and effort, and is possibly reserved for ‘more important‘ issues like coping with cost of living pressures, job uncertainty and prioritising spending. ‘Deciding’ which brand is best for them can seem to be easier delegated to a trusted influencer, instead of making a systematic evaluation of alternatives available.

In other words, deciding on a definition of real need, selecting, scoring and ranking the four criteria of Product, Price, Presentation and Place in assessing available options. Having decided on a suitable brand (delivering more than it says on the tin, every time), not having to second-guess every element of the offering, relying on spirit-of-the-law, rather than letter-of-the-law assurances, it becomes progressively easier to stick with the brand until performance drops below expectation, rather than start an entirely new process of re-assessing available options in terms of meeting one’s needs…

A key component of trust in the brand is brand loyalty, a long-term willingness to repeatedly purchase a favoured brand without the need to second-guess the contents of the offering. As you know, the main reason that brand loyalty is so important to profitability is that the relative cost of encouraging the consumer back to the brand decreases with each repeat purchase i.e. persuading a loyal user to buy again is far less expensive that encouraging a new user to try the brand.

Essentially, given the high cost of attracting a consumer to the brand and ensuring adequate trial, the consumer’s first purchase usually represents a loss to the brand owner. A repeat sale to a satisfied customer still requires some inducement, meaning that the second sale is hopefully made at a lower cost, possibly breaking even.

In fact, it is only when a doubly satisfied consumer returns to the brand a third time with minimal or no inducement that profit is made. Thus it is imperative that consumer expectations are managed, met and even exceeded in order that we can hope to optimise a consumer’s lifetime value.

It goes without saying that anything that causes the consumer to feel ‘short-changed’ places this fragile trust in jeopardy and risks delivering a ‘well-trained’ consumer into the arms of a rival… However, the loss of a regular user represents but a small part of the real risk in disappointing a loyal consumer. The real damage is caused when the ‘tell a friend’ process kicks in.

As you know, in brand marketing a consumer’s reaction to brand experience can be fairly predictable. In other words, ‘please me and I will tell one friend, disappoint me and ten friends will hear of my dissatisfaction’. However, with access to social media by an aggrieved savvy consumer, the 1:10 numbers can be multiplied by ten, a hundred or even tens of thousands in the hands of a well-connected influencer-consumer…

As you know, brand loyalty is measured through customer retention, customer lifetime value, and customer satisfaction surveys, but it completes the profit jigsaw by optimising brand equity, the financial value of a brand.

Given that brand equity provides a means of calculating the financial value of a brand, brand equity also helps to justify a brand premium over rivals. It follows that any dilution of brand equity puts the brand at a disadvantage to rivals and reduces its competitive edge in the category. Moreover, when consumers trust a brand and find it relevant, even at a premium price, and even tell a friend, they are surely worth preserving…

Taking the market capitalisation of the firm, minus the value of its tangible assets, leaves us with the value of brand equity. So it can be seen that any dilution of brand equity lessens the value of the company in the market in providing security for borrowing and drives the cost of servicing debt.

Above are most of the reasons to never risk jeopardising the consumer’s trust in a brand. However, these are merely commonsense business reasons for ensuring the survival of the business. The real payoff from building and maintaining consumer trust in our brands comes from our potential ability to optimise one of the most radical developments in consumer persuasion, the emergence of Retail Media.

Whilst traditional media will probably hold on to its ability to build awareness of the brand, Retail Media’s ability to help us to access the brand’s consumer in the aisle, hand in pocket, ready to buy, will ultimately supplant traditional media in terms of effective persuasion of our consumer-shopper, based on a level of first-party data no traditional medium can aspire to… This Retail Media access enables us to encourage a brand-loyal to stick with the brand, discourage a switch to a rival or convert a dithering shopper into a purchaser.

Whilst the timing and accessibility of traditional TV has been driven past sell-by via emerging technology, it is Retail Media’s ability to measure the results of advertising on a Retail Media Network that delivers the knock-out punch…

For decades, advertisers have been using an old cliché to bemoan the fact they knew that 50% of their advertising was wasted, but unfortunately could not tell which half. Retail Media, by tracking a consumer’s behaviour all the way through the buying process and beyond, can now solve that problem.

Moreover, one of Retail Media’s leading advocates in the business will probably be your CFO, able at last to measure the return on investment of the money historically ‘wasted on advertising’…

However, Retail Media raises key issues and questions for the supplier:

• Who owns Retail Media?
• Who owns Trade Investment?
• Advertising execution: Traditional Agency vs Retail Media Agency?
• Who negotiates with the retailer? Sales/Marketing? eComm?
• Who co-ordinates omni-channel messages?

These issues need to be resolved if only to help both supplier and retailer to optimise the potential benefits of Retail Media, done properly…

Patently, the incorporation of Retail Media will take some bedding in, but its momentum is already unstoppable. Given the inevitable development of Retail Media, it is clearly imperative that consumer trust in the brand be preserved at all costs.

In other words, instead of having to use some of our traditional media spend to win back a disappointed consumer and re-educate them about the merits of our brand vs. rival offers, spend that could have gone to creating awareness among non-users, we can instead use this media money to better effect in the aisle.

It is all a matter of Trust….

Avon To Open First Physical Stores

Avon, the cosmetics and personal care brand which has traditionally been sold via a direct-selling model, is set to open its first-ever physical stores in the UK.

The 137-year-old brand has previously relied on an army of door-to-door sales reps to demonstrate and sell its products. However, the pandemic accelerated Avon’s shift to online sales.

The company is now planning to roll out a bricks & mortar format in the UK, Brazil and South Africa. It already has 63 stores in Turkey, growing rapidly over the last three years.

Avon’s Chief Executive Angela Cretu described the move as an “exciting new chapter” for the brand, with it looking to follow women “wherever they spend their time”. She added: “Women like to touch and experience the product and have that joy of seeing all the colours available.”

The first stores in the UK are expected to open over the next couple of months in “neighbourhood communities” rather than on traditional high street locations. They will be “mini beauty boutiques” run by sales representatives as franchises. The stores will feature about 150 products, with the full range available through the sales representative.

Retail analyst Natalie Berg noted that the Avon brand remained “a little dated” but suggested that the opening of physical stores could be beneficial for the company.

“You can’t overestimate the power of human touch and the community you get in a physical store environment,” she said, adding that this was particularly true for beauty products.

Berg stated that Avon would need to get its in-store technology right in order to compete with leading brands that have invested heavily in virtual and augmented reality. However, she said that local stores could have a “halo effect” by helping customers find products they later continue buying from sales reps and online.

Avon made its debut on UK high streets last month via a partnership with Superdrug. The health & beauty retailer is stocking over 150 of Avon’s make-up, skincare and fragrance products in 100 stores, with additional items available online. From 27 November, the partnership will be expanded to hundreds more stores with plans to eventually make Avon products available through Superdrug’s entire chain of almost 800 outlets.

Avon was acquired in 2019 by Natura &Co, the Brazilian beauty group that also owns The Body Shop.

NamNews Implications:

• If Avon can continue their consumer-product ‘intimacy’ instore…
• …they will represent something different in cosmetic selling.
• ‘Avon local stores could have a “halo effect” by helping customers find products they later continue buying from sales reps and online’
• Fingers crossed…

hashtag

Lidl GB Swings To Annual Loss Amid Battle To Keep Prices Down

Lidl has revealed that its business in Britain swung to a loss in its last financial year after battling to keep prices low in the face of rising costs “across the board”.Over the 52 weeks to 28 February 2023, the discounter posted a pre-tax loss of £75.9m against a profit of £41.1m the previous year. Underlying earnings (EBIT) fell from £79m to £28.5m.

Lidl noted that it had invested over £100m in keeping down during the cost of living crisis, helping it attract an additional 1.4 million shoppers. Its market share during the period increased from 6.1% to 7.1% – the fastest growth experienced by the discounter in the past five years.

The company opened 50 new stores during the year and invested heavily in staff pay and expanding its distribution network. This included building Lidl’s largest Regional Distribution Centre (RDC) in the world, which officially opened in Luton earlier this month following a £300m investment.

“We’ve always had a clear commitment to offer the best value to our customers, and that is a promise we will always keep, even in uncertain economic times,” said Ryan McDonnell, CEO of Lidl GB.

“Alongside preserving this price promise, rewarding our people and maintaining long-term relationships with our suppliers will always be a priority. As a privately-owned business, we have the ability to make decisions that we know will have immediate benefits for our people, customers and suppliers and long-term benefits for our business.”

He went on to say: “The entire retail market has seen inflation, and we are no exception. However, for us, what is important is that our price gap to the traditional supermarkets is as strong as it has ever been. We’ve invested in keeping our prices low for customers in what has been a very challenging year for most and, with many more customers flooding through our doors each day, our ambition is to ensure that every single household has access to high quality, affordable food at their local Lidl store.”

Next year will mark 30 years of Lidl in Britain, with the business now operating over 960 sites and 14 distribution centres. McDonnell stated that there was “no ceiling on our ambitions for the next 30 as we see the potential for hundreds of new stores”.

Last week, Aldi opened its 1,000th store in the UK and outlined plans to open 500 more.

NamNews Implications:

• A key issue has to be the extent to which Lidl operations in other countries are prepared to fund UK losses at their expense…
• That said, discounters in the UK are on a roll and global Lidl may be prepared to trade off share growth vs. local discontent.
• i.e. Lidl has to fuel available growth…
• …and according to their management, this investment will continue.
• i.e. there was “no ceiling on our ambitions for the next 30 as we see the potential for hundreds of new stores”.
• Address your Lidl strategies accordingly…

#Discounters #Aldi #Lidl #Share

Aldi Opens 1,000th UK Store With Plans For 500 More

 

Aldi has today opened its 1,000th store in the UK, nearly 33 years after opening its first in Stechford, Birmingham.

Announcing the opening of the milestone outlet in Woking, Surrey, the discounter committed to a new long-term target of 1,500 stores in the UK, with a pledge to invest billions of pounds in the economy.

Aldi is now the country’s fourth biggest grocery retailer, with one in every ten pounds spent in UK supermarkets going through its tills. It is also the fastest-growing supermarket, with its low-price mantra helping it attract even more customers during the cost of living crisis.

Aldi is on track to open another 20 new stores before the end of the year as part of a £1.3bn two-year investment plan.
The retailer stated that it was on the hunt for more locations across the UK to support its bid to open another 500 stores to reach its target of 1,500.

Aldi UK and Ireland CEO, Giles Hurley, commented: “Opening our 1,000th store is a huge milestone and wouldn’t have been possible without the hard work and dedication of our 40,000 incredible colleagues.

“Our popularity is growing, and there is huge demand for people to have an Aldi store near to them to increase shoppers’ access to our unbeatable prices.

“The next phase of our expansion will involve another 500 new stores over the coming years. It is a long-term target and is not a ceiling to our ambition to have an Aldi store close to everyone in the UK.”

NamNews Implications:

• About time to include Aldi in your major customer portfolio, somehow…?
• (Just assume a 50% increase in store numbers adds an equivalent amount to their UK market share)
• Need any more inducement?

#AldiShare #AldiGrowth #DiscounterValue

Tesco Admits To ‘Tension’ With Suppliers

After it was revealed last week that Tesco had slipped down GSCOP compliance ranking, the retailer’s Chief Executive has blamed its fall on “fighting the fight” for consumers against inflation.

After posting robust first-quarter results on Friday, Ken Murphy is quoted by trade publication The Grocer as saying there was an “inevitable tension” with suppliers trying to get through cost price increase (CPI) requests and Tesco seeking to keep prices down.

Last week’s compliance ranking published by the Groceries Code Adjudicator (GCA) showed Tesco had fallen from second place to sixth. This was despite the cut-off for the survey coming before Tesco’s call on suppliers to start paying fulfilment fees for using its online and Booker wholesale services. The report by The Grocer noted that this recent move could result in Tesco falling even further down the table next year.

Murphy highlighted that the latest GCA ranking was “very, very tight,” adding: “We are only talking about a percentage point of two in the difference, and I’m really pleased that more than 95% of suppliers recognise we are compliant with the code.

“However, there is an inevitable tension between retailers and suppliers over the passing on of costs and how we fight the fight for customers.”

Meanwhile, Murphy offered further reasoning for its upcoming range reset programme, ‘Fit for Change’. This was announced last month and is set to be the biggest range review since predecessor Dave Lewis’s ‘Project Reset’.

Murphy told The Grocer: “We have seen a giant leap in the technology to enable us to predict what customers will buy and where. This review is all about making sure we combine minimising the cost of servicing those customers with making sure we optimise the range so our customers have enough of the product they want to find.”

NamNews Implications:

• Consumers, retailers and suppliers are coping with Lockdown fallout.
• The most fundamental and unprecedented business challenges, ever…
• In principle, each member of the supply chain will try to isolate costs that can be passed to other parts of that supply chain.
• (The Tesco fulfilment charge being just one example…)
• Suppliers need to quantify the financial impact of every part of their supplier-retailer relationship…
• …and negotiate like-with-like re the impact on respective P&Ls.

#CPIs #Costs #SupplierRetailerRelationships

"But I always do my Tesco Clubcard shopping on Saturday afternoon!"

A New Norm Shopping Behavioural Insight, from the NamNews Team!

Tesco, Hove - 03.06.2023 - 1430

Retail Shrink in the New Norm...

 

‘Petty’ theft by shoppers, increasingly out of real need, raises the issue of how the crime and criminal are tackled.

In other words, traditionally the thieving shopper was apprehended and charged with theft…

However, the New Norm adds another dimension, the moral issue of adding to a cash-strapped shopper’s burden by the shame of arrest, coupled with the stigma for a leading retailer of prosecuting its customers vs. the growing problem of appearing to be soft on crime, all the subject of tabloid headlines on a slow news day.

Only yesterday in my local Co-op, I witnessed a shopper under observation by the checkout operator and a security guard as he pretended to self-check a small bag of groceries…

[NamNews readers will not need reminding that to fully appreciate the combined pressure on a retailer, think about the cost in incremental sales when a shopper steals a £3.50 tin of beans from a retailer on a 3% Net Margin, the retailer needs to make incremental sales of £116.67 to recover the loss…]

Like a formation dance-move, the Security Guard moved close to the shopper, murmured quietly in his ear, took the shopping bag as the shopper grimaced and quietly left the store, all without missing a beat...

A pointer for retailers everywhere !

#Shrink #Theft #Poverty #CashStrappedConsumers

Proposed Contract Change To Hit Pay Of Asda Staff

Around 7,000 Asda workers are facing a potential cut in their pay as the debt-laden supermarket group seeks further cost savings.

The company is consulting with staff at 39 stores outside the M25 but near the capital about losing their 60 pence per hour ‘location supplement’ to bring their pay in line with its other stores around the country.

Asda’s owners, the Issa brothers and private equity firm TDR Capital, have been looking to make savings across the business after the cost of servicing the debt on their £7bn acquisition soared as interest rates rose. They are reportedly working on plans to merge the supermarket with their petrol forecourts business EG Group in a move designed to reduce their joint debt burden.

The GMB union claimed that those that do not agree to the pay change will have the new contract imposed on them and could be dismissed if they refuse to sign. The union, which represents many of the supermarket’s workers, stated that the proposed pay cut was “classic private equity slash and burn tactics” ahead of the potential £11bn merger with EG.

Nadine Houghton, GMB organiser, said: “Cutting the pay of 7,000 low-paid retail workers during a cost of living crisis is inexcusable.”

She also called on the government to block Asda’s proposed tie-up with EG, stating that it would be “bad for workers, bad for consumers and bad for the high street”.

Houghton added: “These slash and burn tactics, along with food and fuel price increases, will only ramp up if the merger goes ahead.”

In response, Asda stressed that no final decision had been made on the pay cut for the 7,000 staff, but it was considering making the change as none of its rivals paid a similar supplement in those areas.

A spokesperson said: “We are holding a collective consultation in a small number of stores outside the M25 where colleagues are currently paid a legacy location supplement.

“This supplement is out of line with the wider retail market and has created an anomaly where some Asda colleagues in stores that are close together are paid different rates. As part of this consultation, we are discussing a compensatory payment for colleagues in return for the removal of this location supplement, if the proposal goes ahead.”

NamNews Implications:

• There could will be troubles ahead…
• Especially given the assumption that an unanticipated rise in interest rates from 1% to 4.5%+…
• …should be funded via workforce wages.
• Although this is a different business model, the JLP reduction/non-payment of bonus will be a big demotivator.
• …at least!

#Interest #DebtBurden #Inflation

Every little bit of availability helps…

Every little bit of availability helps…

(Tesco, Hove 1347 - Saturday 20/5/2023)

#Availability #SupplyChain #OOS

Leading Mayonnaise Brand Adopts Shrinkflation To Offset Higher Input Costs

Unilever’s Hellmann’s mayonnaise line has become the latest brand to adopt the shrinkflation tactic to counter increased production costs.

According to trade publication The Grocer, Tesco has stopped selling 800g jars of Hellmann’s Real and Light mayonnaise that used to sell for £3.60. This has been replaced with a smaller 600g variant with a higher shelf price of £3.75.

The report noted that the move means the leading mayonnaise brand is now 37.8% more expensive per 100g than it was previously when sold in 800g jars.

A spokesperson for Unilever is quoted by The Grocer saying: “Our Hellmann’s Real Mayonnaise jars are available in four sizes to suit varying shopper preferences and needs. This includes our 600g jar, which is available alongside our 800g, 400g and 200g jars.

“Although we are currently experiencing significant increases in input costs, including the costs of the quality ingredients used to make Hellmann’s mayonnaise, we will always try to absorb as much of the cost pressure ourselves and look for savings within our own business before passing on pricing to consumers.”

NamNews Implications:

• Presumably, the price increases are being applied, pro rata across all sizes…
• i.e. the loyal Hellmann’s user is being asked to take a 38.7% price increase…
• …and has the options of switching to an alternative brand, an own label or a discounter.
• (interesting to assess the cost of retrieval for those that vote with their feet…)

#Shrinkflation #PriceIncrease #CostOfLiving

Grocery Inflation Inches Lower

Despite recent suggestions that cost pressures are easing, latest Kantar data confirms that grocery price inflation remains exceptionally high.

However, it did fall for the second month in a row, inching down from 17.3% to 17.2% for the four weeks to 14 May. Take-home grocery sales rose by 10.8% on the same period as last year, with the discounters continuing to outperform the traditional Big Four supermarkets.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar: “The drop in grocery price inflation, which is down by 0.1 percentage points on last month’s figure, is without doubt welcome news for shoppers but it is still incredibly high – 17.2% is the third fastest rate of grocery inflation we’ve seen since 2008, an extra £833 to annual grocery bills”.

Savvy shoppers are choosing more own-label goods, growing by 15.2% this month, compared to 8.3% for branded. But the brand premium gap is narrowing in most stores via loyalty discounts.

McKevitt continued: “In the fierce contest for market share, eyes have been on the dairy aisle in particular, where the average cost of four pints of milk has come down by 8 pence since last month. Prices are still much higher than they were 12 months ago, at £1.60 currently versus £1.30 last year, but retailers know just how important it is to offer even small savings on staple products like milk to get customers through the door.”

Waitrose benefited from a substantial uplift in the week of the coronation, with sales up 4.8% over the 12 wks, its highest growth since April 2021.

Aldi was the fastest-growing this month, with sales increasing 24.0%. Lidl’s sales rose 23.2%, and together accounted for 17.8% of the market.

Asda won back market share to 13.9% after sales grew 10.6%. Sales were boosted by its Just Essentials range, with nearly two in five Asda baskets containing at least one of these value items this May.

Morrisons recorded a third consecutive period of sales growth, although the increase was more muted versus others at just 0.6%. The grocer relaunched its ‘More Reasons to Shop’ strapline yesterday as part of its efforts to win back shoppers.

Sales increased by 8.9% at Tesco, with growth across its convenience stores, large format supermarket and online channels. Sainsbury’s sales rose by 10.5%, and it held market share steady at 14.8%.

NamNews Implications:

• Inflation of 17.2% is still off-putting for brands…
•  …but encouraging for own-label and the discounters.
• i.e. Aldi & Lidl combined share of 17.8%…
• …and growing at 24%.
• And own-label growing a 2x the rate of brands.
• These stats raise two essential questions for branded suppliers:
• How to safely optimise own-label potential?
• How to find ways of optimising Aldi & Lidl traffic?
• These two options are becoming too big to ignore.
• On any count…

#MarketShare #Discounters #OwnLabel

Co-op Becomes Latest Retailer To Offer Cheaper Prices For Members Of Loyalty Scheme

Just days after Sainsbury’s launched a scheme mimicking Tesco’s successful Clubcard Prices discounts, the Co-op has announced that it is introducing lower prices exclusively for members of its loyalty programme.

The move is part of the society’s plan to invest more than £240m, across the next five years, into its membership proposition in a bid to attract a million new members.

The lower prices across its 2,400 food stores will only be available to Co-op members, with the retailer claiming shoppers could save up to £300 a year.

Detailing the areas where shoppers stand to benefit the most, Co-op said members could save an average of £8 on its freezer filler deals, £1.45 on own-brand pizzas, £1.90 on ready meals and £5 on some wines deals.

The Co-op membership scheme will also continue to enable shoppers to earn 2p in every pound spent on its own-brand products that is returned to the member’s digital wallet, and raise funds for community causes.

Additionally, Co-op announced today that it was investing a further £15m this May to reduce the cost of more than 60 key lines in stores to help customers during the cost-of-living crisis. Products included in this price round of price cuts include lines such as fresh chicken breasts, bread and milk. The average reduction is claimed to be 13% for those moving down, with the maximum reduction at 33%

Kenyatte Nelson, Chief Membership & Customer Officer at Co-op, said: “For us to champion a better way of doing business, we are aiming to grow our membership base by one million over the next five years and will accompany this ambition with a compelling member-benefits programme, which will span our entire Co-op.

“Our initial member investment will be targeted within our food business and directly supports our pure convenience strategy. Currently, around 16 million shoppers visit our stores each week or trade online with us. Our ambition is that many will convert to being Co-op members when they see the clear value this can bring to both themselves and their wider communities.”

The group stated that new member-food benefits would be followed in time by additional investment from the Co-op’s other business areas in funeral care, insurance and legal services.

The new member prices in its food stores were launched today.

NAM Implications:

• Tesco has demonstrated that it works.
• And what about all that resulting shopping behaviour arising
• (think Retail Media).
• Begging the question of how soon Aldi will introduce loyalty cards for the same reason.
• i.e. when a retailer has squeezed all the juice from margin and stockturn…
• …RM revenue can become the only other option

Weaker Consumer Spending, Especially BIG TICKET, Impacting Costco

Costco’s sales growth continued to weaken during its second quarter, with the warehouse club operator missing analysts’ estimates as consumers made cutbacks amid persistently high inflation.

Having seen double-digit increases during the pandemic, Costco’s total comparable sales over the 12 weeks to 12 February rose 6.8%, excluding the impacts of changes in petrol prices and foreign exchange.

Comparable sales in its 584 outlets in the US rose 5.8%. The 107 stores in Canada saw a 9.6% rise, whilst its 157 overseas warehouses (including 29 in the UK) saw sales increase by 9.5%. However, the group’s e-commerce unit recorded an 8.7% decline as consumers reined in their spending and returned to shopping in physical stores.

The slowdown was highlighted in the latest figures for February, with total growth of only 5.0% after a much weaker performance in the US (+3.5%).

“We’ve seen some weakness in what I’ll call big-ticket discretionary items,” said finance chief Richard Galanti, adding electronics, jewellery and housewares, among others, were the worst performers in February and in the reported quarter.

Several US retailers have in recent weeks commented on how Americans have been changing their shopping patterns and seeking out more bargains and discounts as they deal with high inflation.

Retail bellwether Walmart warned last week consumers were increasingly shifting towards more food and consumable products, and away from general merchandise.

Galanti added: “Most major departments in general were down, with fresh foods being down a little more than others.”

NamNews Implications:

• A global switch from consumer durables being experienced by most retailers.
• Meaning consumers are postponing purchase…
• …and ‘making do’ instead of replacing big-ticket items.
• Those with long memories will recall 'Planned Obsolescence'...
• The key issue is how long the consumer will forgo purchasing.
• And IMO, anyone anticipating significant change within the next decade…
• …should seek evidence to support their assumptions.

#BigTicket #PlannedObsolesence #Demand

Brands to Own Label Switchers - A Permanent Change?

A new study suggests that just over 70% of British consumers plan to keep buying supermarket own-label products even if inflation starts to ease, whilst simple discounts remain the most popular type of promotion.

According to the food & beverage trends report by research platform Attest, 7 in 10 consumers have no intention of reverting back to big brands after making the switch during the cost of living crisis in a bid to save money.

Of those that have, nearly 26% said they would ‘definitely’ stick with own-label lines, even if price wasn’t an issue, while a further 44.6% ‘probably’ would. Only 12.9% stated they wouldn’t stick with them, although Boomers showed the greatest intent to abandon own-label.

The survey also revealed that 58% of shoppers are visiting multiple supermarkets in person to hunt for the best prices. It found inflation caused some consumers to leave Morrisons, Tesco and Waitrose (high prices, lack of deals).

Out of six promotion types, discounting the price of a product is what shoppers want the most, closely followed by BOGOF deals. Offering a percentage of extra product free was ranked third, alongside a ‘pre-inflation price freeze’.

The research also details that discounts don’t need to be huge to incentivise shoppers. When asked for the minimum discount that is persuasive, the top answer was a 20% discount (for 38% of people). A further 22% would buy with a 30% discount, while 20% would be convinced by a discount of 10% or less.

Attest CEO, Jeremy King, said: “Faced with new pressures, British shoppers have evolved in behaviour, and have acquired a real taste for supermarkets’ own-label brands. This shift is driven by rapid price rises for all grocery and household products and may be permanent for several important sub-segments. Well-known brands that can’t compete on price are the losers here and face significant challenges.

“The big-name brands need to provide consumers with new, compelling reasons not to switch to own-label rivals, or in some cases motivate them to come back to big brands.

“This puts supermarket chains under serious pressure to either offer the best deals that beat other retailers and attract consumers, or to extend their own-label product lines to offer ever-increasing appeal to inflation-weary consumers.”

NamNews Implications:

• A key issue has to be the tolerable amount of a brand premium.
• i.e. how much extra a consumer is prepared to pay for the ‘certainty’ of a brand…
• (despite the advent of shrinkflation in some cases)
• All adding up to the effect of trust in the relationship.
• Meanwhile, consumers realising by direct experience that ‘brands are not much better’?
• …may take some persuading when things revert to ‘normal’…

#OwnLabel #Switch #Brand

Aldi Buses In Customers From Rival Stores

Aldi has marked being crowned “Britain’s Cheapest Supermarket” for the second year running by laying on free bus rides to one of its stores from rival retailers in the area.

The stunt by the discounter featured bus stops placed outside Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Asda stores in Aylesbury, Bucks, with a Routemaster double-decker bus picking up shoppers and delivering them to the nearby Aldi.

Aldi quoted one Tesco shopper saying: “How funny! This has really made my day.”

Julie Ashfield, the retailer’s Managing Director of Buying, commented: “We’re so proud to have been named the UK’s cheapest supermarket for the second year running, we wanted to share the good news with customers and what better way than by giving shoppers a free ride to come and experience the lowest prices for themselves!”

Analysis released earlier this month by consumer watchdog Which? showed Aldi had narrowly beaten its main rival Lidl to be named the cheapest UK supermarket over the last 12 months. Aldi was the cheapest supermarket for seven consecutive months from June to December, while Lidl was the cheapest from January to May.

The results for the final month of the year in December showed a basket of 48 groceries on average was £81.63 at Aldi – £11.79 cheaper than Tesco and £14.08 cheaper than Sainsbury’s.

NamNews Implications:

• An innovative use of Retail Media?
  {i.e. 'Grabbing' potential ready-to-buy potential customers 'in-the-aisle' and offering them a Route to a better deal, conveniently?

#RetailMedia

Aldi Scrapping Online Delivery Service To Focus On Stores And Value

 

Click to enlarge

Aldi is axing its home delivery service for its non-food ‘Specialbuys’, as well as wine and spirits, to focus on opening new stores and keeping prices low.

The move will leave click & collect of groceries, which Aldi launched in 2020 across over 200 stores, as its only online operation when the other services come to an end this year.

The discounter launched home delivery of wines and spirits in 2015, which grew to offer shoppers many of its non-food Specialbuys exclusively online.

An Aldi spokesperson commented: “We keep our prices low by being the most efficient retailer in Britain, and we have therefore taken the decision to stop selling wine and spirits online for home delivery from later this month.

“We will also stop selling our Specialbuys online for home delivery later this year.”
Aldi currently has over 950 stores in the UK and hopes to reach 1,000 during 2023.

NamNews Implications

• For me, this IGD stand-out slide of 2022, says it all about home delivery.
• Aldi are obviously applying the same logic…
• (also worth keeping in mind that even Amazon could only break even on online retail, at best)
• Aldi dropping online delivery is a monumental step for retail...

Aldi Beats Lidl To Be Crowned Cheapest Supermarket Of 2022

Analysis by consumer watchdog Which? shows Aldi has narrowly beaten its main rival Lidl to be named the cheapest UK supermarket over the last 12 months.

Throughout 2022, Which? tracked hundreds of thousands of grocery prices across the eight major supermarkets (Aldi, Asda, Lidl, Morrisons, Ocado, Sainsbury’s, Tesco, Waitrose) to find out how much each shop was charging for everyday items such as bread, milk and eggs.

Overall, Aldi was the cheapest supermarket for seven consecutive months from June to December, while Lidl was the cheapest from January to May.

The results for the final month of the year in December showed a basket of 48 groceries on average was £81.63 at Aldi, just beating Lidl, where the basket was £83.24. Meanwhile, Waitrose was more than £30 pricier than Aldi, at £112.62 and was consistently the most expensive supermarket across the 12 months.

Alongside the price comparison of a basket of groceries at all eight supermarkets, Which? also compared a larger trolley packed with a greater selection of branded items that are not always available at the discounters – meaning they aren’t included in this bigger comparison.

Asda was the cheapest of the traditional supermarkets in December – as it has been every month for the last three years. Based on a larger trolley of 149 products, Asda’s total came in at £355.62, followed by Sainsbury’s (£368.97), Tesco (£375.97), Morrisons (£377.81) and Ocado (£386.68). At Waitrose, the total came to £406.95, £51.33 more than Asda.

Which? is currently campaigning for all supermarkets to do more to help customers during the cost of living crisis and has recently published a 10-point plan of steps across three key areas to help ensure affordable food is available to everyone who needs it.

“With food and drink prices putting huge pressure on household budgets, it’s no surprise to see many people turning to discounters like Aldi and Lidl when our research shows they could save up to £31 on a typical shop,” said Reena Sewraz, Which? Retail Editor.

“Which? believes all supermarkets have the ability to make a real difference to hard-hit households by ensuring everyone has easy access to basic, affordable food lines at a store near them, particularly in areas where people are most in need.”

NamNews Implications

• While experts closer to grocery might split hairs re the methodology...
• ...in the mind of the shopper, their perception of something like a 27% price difference between Aldi and Waitrose...
• …has to make a shopping difference.
• And will be reflected in grocery market shares.
• Suppliers had better tune into shopper perception
•  (Even in Aldi...)
• Or suffer the consequences?

#BasketPrices #Cheapest

Inflation Drives Record Christmas In Grocery Sector; Aldi Remains Fastest Growing Supermarket

Latest Kantar data shows take-home grocery sales rose 9.4% to a record £12.8bn in 4 weeks to 25 December, via inflation vs volume. Over 12 weeks, up 7.6%, with discounters continuing to outperform the mults. Whilst value sales were up £1.1bn in December vs Christmas 2021, volumes down 1%.

“This story played out across the traditional Christmas categories,” said Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar. “For example, value sales of mince pies soared by 19%, but volume purchases barely increased at all.”

Annual grocery price inflation 14.4% in December, down from 14.6% in November: “This is the second month in a row that grocery price inflation has fallen, raising hopes that the worst has now passed".

High inflation impacting how and what people buy.

Kantar: consumers buying supermarkets’ O/L with sales up 13.3%, vs 4.7% increase in branded lines.

McKevitt said: “The British supermarket sector is more competitive than ever and the grocers are keen to retain customers by offering their own festive alternatives, emphasising premium own-label.

Sales grew 10.2% to hit a £700m first time. Tesco’s Finest remains largest premium own-label, with Aldi and Lidl the biggest contributors to the premium own label sector’s overall growth in 2022.”

December, the mults' busiest month since the start of the pandemic - shop visits up 5.2% YOY.

Online grocery value sales up 4% YOY. Online’s total share vs Christmas 2021, down 0.6 percentage points to 11.6%.

Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda and Morrisons grabbed two-thirds of all spending.

Asda up 6.4%, Sainsbury’s and Tesco up 6.2% and 6.0% respectively, Morrisons down 2.9%

Aldi was the fastest-growing up 27.0%, market share up from 7.7% in 2021 to 9.1%. Lidl’s up 23.9%, market share up 0.9 percentage points to 7.2%.

Iceland’s sales grew by 10.2%, frozen poultry rising by 15% and frozen prepared foods by 18%. This pushed Iceland’s market share to 2.5%. Sales at Waitrose continued to weaken, down 0.7%, with its market share slipping from 5.1% to 4.7%.

NamNews Implications

• ‘volumes were actually down by 1% year-on-year’ says it all for realists.
• Added to which, many consumers were having a last hurrah... …before knuckling down to the realities of January’s demands on their purses.
• Meanwhile “…value sales of mince pies soared by 19%, but volume purchases barely increased at all.”
• i.e. the impact of inflation needs drumming into those in the business too easily mislead by top-line figures.
• The moves to own-label and the discounters are again confirmed.
• (with Aldi & Lidl continuing to grow share at the expense of the mults and Waitrose)
• And will not easily be reversed...
• In other words, it is hopefully obvious that suppliers planning to stay outside the discounter channel...
• ...are at risk.

#MarketShares #OwnLabel #Discounters

Trailer misrepresents Movie, an unprecedented case for compensation?

On Friday 23-12-2022, The Times reported that Universal Studios is embroiled in a legal action that could cost it millions because they included Ana de Armas in the trailer for Yesterday, Danny Boyle’s 2019 movie about a struggling musician that discovers that no one but him has heard of the Beatles, and exploits that fact to become a superstar.

However, much to the disappointment of at least two fans, the Cuban-Spanish actress's scenes ended up on the cutting room floor.

Conor Woulfe and Peter Michael Rosza accused Universal of deceptive marketing after they paid $3.99 to rent the film, demanding $5m damages for themselves and others affected.

Unfortunately for Universal, a US Federal judge found it infringed Californian advertising law if a significant number of reasonable viewers could be misled. The case will now proceed to Clark action certification.

By refusing to dismiss the case, the judge ensured that Woulfe and Rosza were not saddled with Universal’s legal fees.

If the parties cannot settle, Universal may decide that this precedent is bad enough for them that they will invest a million dollars to fight it all the way to the end to try to get this precedent overturned.

NamNews Implications:

• It looks like the court has decided that a movie trailer is a trade description...
• ...and represents a condition of purchase.
• By suing for $5m on a $3.99 purchase...
• ...the case will get wide coverage.
• Given that many viewers rely on a combination of write-ups and trailers for their choice of a streamed movie purchase/rental...
• (and are invariably disappointed?)
• ...it follows that this ruling opens up a whole new way for expressing that disappointment...
• ...and being compensated for the gap between promise and delivery.
• Watch this place...

#Promise #Delivery #Unprecedented

Happy Christmas

 

Morrisons Suffers Credit Rating Downgrade

Morrisons has had its credit rating downgraded due to the £6bn worth of debt it is now saddled with from the takeover by CD&R and shrinking profits amid poor sales performance.

Credit rating agency Fitch highlighted that the struggling grocer has been pushing up prices faster than its rivals, causing it to lose market share. It also noted that soaring debt interest costs will lead to a £200m drain on Morrisons’ profits over the next three years. 

Fitch downgraded the Morrisons’ debt rating from a ‘speculative’ BB level, to a ‘highly speculative’ B+, suggesting a ‘material’ risk of it defaulting.

It is the latest blow for the retailer since it fell into the hands of CD&R last year and adds to growing concerns about the role of private equity firms, which rely on vast amounts of debt to fund takeovers.

In September, Morrisons reported a halving of third-quarter profits as it lost sales to the discounters and faced “unprecedented inflationary pressures” in its food manufacturing operations. The grocer’s like-for-like sales also fell 3.1% as more competitively priced chains tempted cash-strapped shoppers to their stores.

Chief Executive David Potts has come under pressure to revive the ailing chain, with industry experts branding the takeover by private equity “at best a distraction, and at worst a bit of a disaster”.
Morrisons was overtaken in market share terms by Aldi earlier this year, with Lidl stating last month that it had the “momentum” to leapfrog the traditional Big Four supermarket.

Despite the downgrade, Fitch said Morrisons’ sales decline would reverse in the coming year. It noted that the group’s performance would be boosted by the acquisition of McColl’s, which was cleared by competition regulators at the end of October.

NamNews Implications:

• Key is where Morrisons goes from here.
• Sale & leaseback of essential assets would be the obvious route for a PE-owned company, as interest rates rise...
• Anticipate sale of all outlets, leaseback of profitable outlets...
• ...as a way back to more profitable sales!
• Meanwhile, ensure your fair share of sales & investment, going forward…

#PrivateEquity #SaleAndLeaseback #InterestRates