The Just-in-Time to Just-in-Case transition, a retro step?

Just-in-Time = little/no buffer stock, lower cost. 

Just-in-Case = buffer stock = higher cost = inflation...

Tesco Warns Of Christmas Panic Buying Worse Than During Pandemic

The concerns were raised by Andrew Woolfenden, Tesco’s distribution and fulfilment director, during a meeting of the government’s new food and drink taskforce last week. He suggested that the issue of empty shelves could be worse than that caused by the consumer stockpiling which took place during the first Covid-19 lockdown last year.

NamNews Implications:

• The government still don’t get it:
• “We are closely monitoring labour supply and working with sector leaders to understand how we can best ease particular pinch points.”
• Industry leaders have been telling the government for weeks that the solution lies in temporarily making it easier to bring in workers from abroad to ease the crisis.
• Watch this space…(and minimise breath-holding…)

#PanicBuying #ChristmasShortages #DriverShortages

Lidl Outperforms Rivals In Northern Ireland With Sales Up 25% Over Two Years

Tesco retained its crown as Northern Ireland’s largest grocer with a 3.2% increase in sales as customers bought 5.3% more products while in store. Sainsbury’s grew by 1.9% as shoppers visited the retailer four more times than they did the previous year, whilst Asda’s sales rose by 2.5% as shoppers made additional trips to its stores and added extra items to their baskets.

NamNews Implications:

• Results appear to indicate that suppliers and retailers that are prepared to overcome supply-chain issues in NI can benefit from increased demand…
• While others 'wait & see’….
• Meanwhile, given that Lidl have no Aldi competition in NI, their NI and UK share is the same...
• . ..begging the question: Why are Aldi not in NI, given their success in ROI?
• The exit-clock ticking for Asda?

#Lidl #TescoNI #AldiNI? #AsdaNI

Morrisons Targeting Hospitality Sector With New Wholesale Partnership

The supermarket group has signed a deal (supplying products to pubs, restaurants, and hotels as part of a drive to rapidly expand its wholesale division) with Starstock, an online portal that enables foodservice businesses to order directly from suppliers. 

The move means that hospitality firms will be able to buy products produced by Morrisons to use in their kitchens. Starstock already has partnerships with brand manufacturers including Asahi, Coca-Cola and Britvic.

NamNews Implications:

• The first of many likely innovations when Morrisons moves into private equity ownership.
• Freedom to experiment in ways that a traditional Morrisons could not.
• With EBITDA improvement the key criterion.
• See ‘The Implications of Private Equity Takeover of a Mult’

#Morrisons #foodservicedistribution #FoodService

Sainsbury’s To Offer Tailored Discounts Via Nectar Scheme

From next Wednesday, members of its Nectar loyalty scheme will have access to exclusive discount prices for their favourite products via the Nectar app. Shoppers will be able to view their personal My Nectar Prices discounts and redeem them in store by checking out through Sainsbury’s self-scanning service, SmartShop, either with handsets or on their smartphones.

NamNews Implications:

• Personalisation of discounts will be a first, for a while…
• …given anything successful in retail is invariably copied.
• So, anticipate tweaking by other mults until a dynamic equilibrium is achieved.
• Best for suppliers to propose initiates that optimise this new reality…
• Ahead of your rivals…

 #Personalise #DiscountsPersonalised

Owners Of Asda Considering $15bn Sale Of Forecourt empire EG Group

According to Bloomberg, the Blackburn-based company is working with various banks including Rothschild, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Barclays to consider its options, which also include a stock market listing.

TDR Capital-backed EG Group, founded in 2001 by Issa brothers, has grown by acquisitions to approx. 6,000 forecourt sites in the UK, US, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and Australia.

NamNews Implications:

• A fast-moving post-Lockdown world, full of surprises, or what?
• (and given that 2020 counts as a decade, we should all be more expert in optimising change…)
• This would be an expensive way of testing the potential value of the Group…
• …so we at NamNews are treating this as a real offer.
• In which case, what-ifs all round…
• Especially if a victorious 7-11 brings their hyper-efficient retailing into play.
• Difficult to ignore this space!!!

#ReSell #EGAsdaGroup #ExitStrategy

Tesco Is A Better Target For Private Equity Firms

Financial advisory firm Bernstein suggested in The Grocer that Tesco was the “most attractive” of the UK food retailers for private equity investors. “The turnaround is complete, the business is simplified, diversified and dominant, and the next five years are set to be a story of consistent, strong execution and returning to shareholders.”

Tesco’s market cap is nearly £20bn, with an enterprise value of £32bn when debt is added, making for the biggest potential acquisition in the UK.

NamNews Implications:

• From a NAMs-eye-view, the possibility of a company being in play means a distraction for management.
• (The price paid in a takeover determines the degree of Sale & Leaseback and pressure on financial performance)
• A private equity buyer means a five-year exit strategy via re-flotation, even more emphasis on financial performance.
• Therein the opportunity for suppliers:
• Propose initiatives that demonstrate a direct impact on Tesco’s bottom line…
• …and will look good to bidders.

#TescoBid #MultsConsolidation

End of the road: Soho's al fresco festival to end in September

It has been one of the few positives to come out of the Covid-19 pandemic, but as the virus recedes it appears so will Soho’s al fresco revival.

Westminster City Council has informed businesses that traffic will be re-introduced to Soho’s streets at the end of September, bringing to an end the weekend and evening pedestrian takeover of the capital’s oldest entertainment district.

Restaurants with existing licences will still be able to use pavements, but roads will be off-limits.
The streets affected by the ending of the temporary road closures include Frith St, Greek St, Dean St, Moor St and the buzzing Old Compton Street.

NamNews Implications:

• 'SOHO needs al fresco to survive' says it all
• City A.M. understands the Council are open to the idea of extending alfresco schemes where residents are keen
• Key that residents act...
• More here

#AlFresco #StreetLifeHospitality

Lidl GB Set To Roll Out Eco Label Trial

The ‘Eco-Score’ system utilises open-source data to independently grade products on their sustainability credentials, such as including production methods, impact on biodiversity, packaging and carbon footprint. 

Products also receive better scores where they are certified to third party schemes such as Fairtrade and Rainforest Alliance. The products are then assigned colour codes, ranging from green ‘A’ (low impact) to red ‘E’ (high impact).

The move will initially cover more than 50 Lidl own label products across all 105 of its outlets in Scotland, beginning October 2021. The products included in the trial include teas, coffees, and hot chocolate.

NamNews Implications:

• If shoppers are in favour, and vote with their feet…
• …anticipate a full roll-out.
• As a pointer for all…
• Despite the inevitability of a shelf-price cost?

#EcoLidl #EcoPackaging #LidlFirst

Growing In-Store Visits Lead To Online Grocery Decline

For the four weeks to 14 August 2021, total till sales were up 1.1% year-on-year to £7.7bn, partially helped by the short heatwave in July, which saw sales for the week ending 24 July jump up 6.2%.

NielsenIQ said the growth was driven by 50 million more in-store visits (+12%) during the four-week period.

NamNews Implications:

• Key for suppliers to compare by category.
• And budget accordingly.
• Medium and longer-term, best to try and anticipate how long it will take for online to grow from 13% to 50% of sales.
• (again finetuned by category and channel, where possible)
• Good NielsenIQ advice to factor in consumer uncertainty….
• As the market reopens…

#OnlineGrocery #RoutesToConsumer #nielsen

Charlie Watts - R.I.P

New HFSS Rules To Make More Space Available In Supermarkets

The new regulations concerning in-store promotion and off-shelf display of high fat, salt and sugar (HFSS) products, which will come into force in 2022, are expected to result in 26% of shelf-space in UK supermarkets being “up for grabs”, according to new research from IRI.

IRI noted that HFSS categories – including confectionery, yoghurts and fruit juices – currently make up 38% of actual store space, but this is forecast to drop to just 12% when the new restrictions are introduced.

NamNews Implications:

• ‘HFSS currently make up 38% of actual store space, but this is forecast to drop to just 12%’
• (note also chilled category impact)
• Best keep in mind that any category/brand hoping to optimise space released…
• …will need to at least match HFSS financial performance, sales and gross profits, vacating the space.

#HFSSRetailSpace

Private Equity Firm Now Eyeing Sainsbury’s?

According to The Sunday Times, US group Apollo is said to be looking at options regarding the supermarket group. 

The paper noted that this interest is exploratory, while a Bloomberg report cited unnamed sources to add that Apollo has not hired any advisers yet.

NamNews Implications:

• A bid of £7bn+ should get the ball rolling...
• Re-entering a period of distraction for Sainsbury’s management.
• Supply and Retail…
• Meanwhile, a short- & medium-term focus on financial performance.
• …by reflex, if not by design.

#MultsTakeover #OtherBiddingWar

Post-lockdown pricing options, from the NamNews Team!

#Pricing #PostLockdown

Russian Discounter Opens First UK Store With Prices Cheaper Than Aldi

The interior of the store in Preston is minimalist with painted breeze-block walls and no branding (see video). Journalists visiting the site described it as a “drab” retail space that makes a branch of Aldi look almost glamorous.

To keep costs down, goods are sold from pallets with limited in-store services and only a handful of staff. The product range is focused on longer life ambient and frozen items, alongside household items. Everyday staples like milk, eggs and bread aren’t available, and there is no fresh fruit or veg.
There is an area with a selection of limited deals on non-food products, similar to the middle aisle in Aldi and Lidl stores.

Suppliers must deliver direct to stores and are expected to offer stock on a sale or return basis. MERE’s Chief Procurement OfficerPavels Antonovs, said: “We are a hard discounter. When we see that a manufacturer or a distributor has an offer that fits our business criteria, we will have it in store.”

NamNews Implications:

• A gauntlet thrown down!
• There has to be an Aldi/Lidl reaction…
• The real issue is how the nearby mults will react.
• Getting listings should be straightforward for suppliers.
• (although direct store delivery, SOR may cause some to pause…)
• But a MERE startup in the UK cannot be ignored… 

#HardDiscounter #Discounter

Grocery Sales Fall, Inflation Returns, And Tesco, Sainsbury’s, And Discounters Gain Market Share

The latest take-home grocery figures from Kantar show sales fell by 4.0% year-on-year during the 12 weeks to 8 August as consumers continued to return to pre-pandemic shopping habits, making smaller but more frequent trips to the stores. However, in the last month, sales declined more slowly by 0.5% and the data shows that Covid is still having an impact on people’s spending as grocery sales remain 9.9% higher in the latest 12 weeks than in 2019.

NamNews Implications:

• A solid base of online loyals has emerged…
• ‘Ocado has retained 1.8% of total grocery sales, the same as last year, and sales are up by 44.4% compared with 2019, the fastest two-year growth in the market.’
• Says it all for Ocado.
• Meanwhile, with 11% of Amazon grocery in own-label…
• …they have plenty of O/L headspace vs mkt average 50%.
• ‘Aldi now holds 8.2% of the market and Lidl 6.1%’ illustrates the continuing discounter threat…

#GroceryMarketShares #PostLockdownRecovery #DiscounterThreat

Amazon To Add New Own-Label Food Range To Online Offering

The own-label food range developed for Amazon’s new grocery store format that launched in the UK earlier this year is set to be offered to its online customers.

The two ranges made their debut in March in the new ‘just walk out’ Amazon Fresh stores. Said to be sourced from UK suppliers, the ‘By Amazon’ label focused on everyday items such as milk and bread, whilst the ‘Our Selection’ offer covered more premium lines. They are sold alongside branded products and items that come from Morrisons and Booths.

NamNews Implications:

• The ultimate test of a retailer’s pulling power (and ego) is the extent to which they can monetise their retail brand via own-label.
• Key is the Generation they choose to position the offering (See our 1-page treatment of Four generations of own label)
• i.e. like Tesco Finest, deliberately positioned as Gen 4: better than national brand but the same price.
• Then branded suppliers have a real (and threatening) competitor…

#PrivateLabel #Amazon

Lockdown, what Lockdown? Some wishful thinking from the NamNews Team!

#Lockdown #Hospitality #PoliticalDilusion

Two Wrongs won't make it a Right Question, from the NamNews Team!

 (Best focus on how to rebuild a business from Lockdown?) 

#LockdownDamage #BackToBasics #RelativeCompetitiveAppeal

Asda’s CEO Steps Down Earlier Than Expected

Trevor Strain, Morrisons’ Chief Operating Officer, Steve Murrells, the boss of the Co-op, Jason Tarry, CEO of Tesco UK & Ireland, Stuart Machin, head of Food at M&S, Ronny Gottschlich, a former boss of Lidl, and Anthony Hemmerdinger, Asda’s COO, have been named by industry watchers as potential candidates to take over from Burnley.

NamNews Implications:

• With six potential candidates, NAMs will need further clarity…
• …in order to muse re impact of a replacement on Asda policy.
• Meanwhile, anticipate more influence from the owners…

#Succession #AsdaFuture

The Hut Group Makes Another Acquisition

E-commerce giant The Hut Group (THG) has continued its acquisition spree by buying online retailer Cult Beauty for £275m.

Launched in 2008, London-headquartered Cult Beauty sells around 300 brands across skincare, haircare and cosmetics, including Charlotte Tilbury, Drunk Elephant, and Huda Beauty.

NamNews Implications:

• In the infinite space of online…
• …this is a no-brainer addition to THG will add scale benefits inc cost efficiencies, minimum.
• And at growth rates of 38% and 41%…
• …you have to have a good reason for not being on board.

#

OnlineCosmetics #beauty #skincare

Doritos Unveils Latest On-Pack Promotion

PepsiCo’s Doritos brand is launching a new on-pack promotion that offers shoppers the chance to win a grand prize of £20,000. There is also an additional opportunity for consumers to win £200 every day.

NamNews Implications:

• A versatile brand…
• …combined with creative consumer engagement…
• …and potential financial reward.
• A no-brainer…

#ConsumerEngagement #Promotions

PepsiCo Selling Juice Brands To Private Equity Firm

PepsiCo has entered into an agreement with PAI Partners (PAI) to sell a 61% majority stake at $3.3bn in its Tropicana, Naked and other select juice brands across North America, and an irrevocable option for certain juice businesses in Europe.

NamNews Implications:

• Rivals should anticipate two changes resulting from this move…
• A different focus on the selling of the juice brands to release potential
• A more intensive focus on PepsiCo’s current portfolio of diverse offerings
• Including growing their portfolio of healthier snacks, zero-calorie beverages, and products like SodaStream.
• Watch these places…

‘Perfect Storm’ Gripping Food Sector With Shortages Now Inevitable, Says 2 Sisters Founder

The founder of one of Britain’s biggest food producers has claimed that supermarket shelves in the UK will be bare and panic buying will intensify unless critical issues currently threatening food supplies are solved promptly.

NamNews Implications:

• ‘Perfect storm’ of causes will have a ‘perfect storm’ of effects:
• Labour shortages = increased labour costs
• Ingredients shortages = increased costs
• Energy demands = increased costs
• Bureaucracy increases = increased costs
• Stockpiling increases = increased costs
• Do you really think all will be contained within official ‘inflationary adjustments.
• i.e. Budget for more than a 5% shelf-price increase, at least...   
• Your category, your call…

#Inflation #LabourShortage #IngredientsInflation #BrexitInflation #StockPiling

Supermarkets Benefit From Weather, Sport, And Staycations But Headwinds On The Horizon

Over the four weeks ending 17 July, total till sales edged down only 1.3% versus the same bumper period in 2020 when demand was being boosted by the effects of the pandemic. This was an improvement on the 2.4% fall in June and 2.7% decline in May when hospitality venues first reopened.

NamNews Implications:

• As always, the key is to compare your sales by sector and category.
• Meanwhile, in terms of potential headwinds (increased hospitality diluting retail, emergence of the super-savvy consumer reining spend)
• It may be worth factoring in a hefty dose of inflation…

#Inflation

The JTF Mega Discount Warehouse Chain Collapses After Lockdown Impact

Trade magazine The Grocer reported that the variety discounter has now closed all of its 12 outlets located on retail parks in the Midlands and north of England. The business employed around 500 staff.

The warehouse and online business sold a wide range of products including food & drink, health & beauty, garden, and DIY products. Customers had to sign up to JFT’s free membership scheme to shop in the stores.

NamNews Implications:

• Sometimes you have advance warning, sometimes not…
• But bankruptcies happen slowly and then very fast.
• Therefore crucial that NAMs monitor the latest annual reports…
• …for early signs of trouble.
• And complete ‘If a customer goes bust’ exercises, regularly.
• What incremental sales are required to generate the sales owed by the customer from Net Profits?
• i.e. Divide the current amount owed to you by the customer by your net margin, and multiply by 100...

#Bankruptcy #SalesImpact

First Fall In Online Grocery Sales; Tesco, Sainsbury’s And Discounters Make Market Share Gains

Latest data from Kantar shows demand for take-home groceries has continued to ease from last year’s records highs, with sales down 5.1% year-on-year during the 12 weeks to 11 July as more normal trading conditions returned and less shopping was done online. However, sales are still elevated compared with pre-pandemic times and shoppers spent £3bn more on groceries than they did during the same period in 2019.

NamNews Implications:

• For many consumers, 17 months was a sufficient period for online grocery to become a habit…
• …providing retailers maintain fulfilment fees, and preserve availability levels ‘on virtual shelf’.
• As always, the two-year comparisons reveal the most…
• …and meanwhile, those pesky discounters.

#KantarShares #OnlineGroceryShares