Tuesday 22 March 2016

Sainsbury’s Confirms Offer for Home Retail - the next steps and imlications

News that Sainsbury’s moved a step closer to sealing the takeover of the Home Retail Group/Argos on Friday, by tabling a formal offer for the business after rival bidder Steinhoff International pulled out, raises a number of implications...

NAM Implications:
  • Whilst as yet, there is no obviously sign of an amply-proportioned lady vocalist preparing to take centre-stage, this looks like a done-deal...
  • Obviously the competition authorities will play their part - delay & distraction - but management’s immediate focus has to be on squeezing costs and generating synergies from the mix…
  • This has to result in well-heralded store closures - otherwise why bother to acquire - and if this means 300 Argos being transferred into nearby space-to-spare Sainsbury’s branches, so be it
  • Ultimately, the Sainsbury’s-Argos combination has to perform better than the separate entities
  • ...meaning opportunities for visionary suppliers


Thursday 17 March 2016

Unit-pricing: The 'missing' ingredient in price comparison


The latest Which? Report highlights the 'up to' 4x premium shoppers pay for the convenience of pre-sliced and pre-portioned foods. The price disadvantage of buying smaller sizes of other essentials is also highlighted.

Whilst retailers can obviously point out that in most cases the unit price is displayed on the price-label to facilitate like-with-like price comparison, the only problem can be the fact that many consumers do not understand the meaning of unit pricing, apart from the mental gymnastics required in breaking down 100g, kilos and volume-equivalents in the case of liquids.

In effect, the unit-price serves little useful purpose and may even add to the confusion of the shopper...and given that confusion leads to suspicion, it can be seen that the real casualty is trust in the retailer...

On-shelf education could be applied via a standardised category league-table of price per 100g comparisons, in very simple language...

Patronising? No way. We are not talking about degrees of intelligence, merely accepting that a busy, distracted shopper is only giving 10% of their attention to true comparison, based on a reasonable level of trust in the retailer...

Allowing the current confusion to continue can lose both trust and shopper...

Of course teaching consumer-shoppers to understand unit pricing makes the consumer better-informed and more difficult to mislead...

Welcome to the new world savvy consumer!

Professional NAMs already take that risk by helping the buyer to make valid like-with-like comparisons, thereby making them more demanding, but the current climate demands a fully informed supply chain.

Helping the 'buyer' to buy can help...

Wednesday 16 March 2016

Aldi/Lidl - Home of the missing 'Wow'?


'Aldi and Lidl starting to look like 'conventional' supermarkets', but they are not...

Recent statements by Sainsbury's, Asda and Tesco implying that discounters are adopting some aspects of conventional supermarkets -including costs - but will not match them on range and service miss a point that may be worth considering.

A visit to your nearest Aldi/Lidl will confirm that 'Wow' is a significant ingredient in the discounter offering that may have been bred out of multiple offerings by EDLP and 100% availability...
Furthermore, as the mults increasingly cut prices to match the discounters, they might need to consider possible consumer-shopper reaction in each business model:
  • When prices are lowered from the long-established 'norm' in a conventional supermarket, the reaction may be 'why are they only charging this price for such good quality?'
  • ...whereas, in a discounter offering the same quality at a slightly lower or even the same price may cause a shopper to ask 'Wow, imagine this quality for this price'...!
In fact, as supermarkets lower their prices to discounter levels, they may still be subject to this difference in reaction.

If 'wow' is now the missing ingredient, the way back for the mults is surely via customer service, something the discounters can never hope to match...

In other words, why not aim at evoking the aisle-response 'Wow, imagine them giving me this degree of personal attention on a simple request!'

Tuesday 15 March 2016

What if Bent Veg become the New Straight?

News that Tesco has joined Asda and Morrisons this week in launching a ‘wonky veg’ range in its stores, as part of an 11 step food waste reduction campaign, raises a number of issues for stakeholders.

This initiative will obviously benefit the ever increasing needy and also reduce the pressure on farmers to meet ‘perfect shape’ specifications, resulting in less delivery-rejects.

However, suppose ‘wonky veg’ also touches a live nerve with consumers, appealing to their appetite for ‘natural’, down-to-earth food that also happens to be cheaper because of its imperfection…but tastes as good as, or even better than the ‘real thing’?

(NAMs closer to the category will know that taste and flavour were long ago compromised in the pursuit of perfection in shape).

In other words, if ‘wonky’ becomes mainstream, and even grows to say 50/50 share with ‘straight’, are we then on a road to specifying different degrees of ‘wonkyness’ in a new range of wonky sub-categories, ‘re-upping’ the pressure on farmers to meet the new specs, and also diluting retail profitability…

We are truely living in crazy times…

Friday 11 March 2016

Staff wages - Aldi Ireland’s hidden extra in the battle for market share

Given Aldi’s natural reticence, a surprisingly detailed 2,000 word article in today’s Irish Times gives some useful insights into the Aldi business model, much of which can be applied to its UK operation.

The article describes Aldi as a logistical and ergonomic-driven machine, a finely-tuned operating model, where “everybody knows what they have to do, and how to do it”, which helps it keep costs to a minimum.

Moreover, its emphasis on exclusive surrogate labels means the packaging, the case it arrives in, the way it gets delivered and shipped to store in shelf-ready packaging, is all under Aldi’s control.

Also, just-in-case, mystery shoppers are employed at each store to ensure that theory is reflected in practice… 

However, the fact that staff are paid at, or above the living wage, and the discounter is known as the best paying retailer in the market, means if the same policy holds in the UK, Aldi will not have to absorb the additional wage cost increases that will put additional cost pressures on UK mults when they have to comply with minimum wage legislation.

Methinks the discounter's competitive edge may be sharper than we thought...?

Much more detail in the Irish Times Article

Thursday 10 March 2016

Amazon elevates delivery to a new level by leasing 20 Boeing cargo planes

News that its US Prime members will benefit in terms of delivery speed and availability from Amazon’s decision to in-source its bulk transportation came as little surprise to observers following its experiments with drone delivery and pre-assembly of anticipated orders.

This latest move reinforces Amazon’s determination to be a global source of anything that can be legally sold to anyone, anywhere, anytime, in any way required by the consumer.

In other words, plane-leasing should not be expected to remain a US initiative for long…

By taking more control of fulfillment, and removing middle men, the company is reducing costs from the supply chain, eliminating duplication-inefficiencies and offering virtually 100% availability via its infinite online shelving.

In the process they are setting industry standards in terms of 1-Click ordering, ever-shortening delivery times, and ‘no-quibble’ returns, in an industry that is stumbling along in their wake…

Moreover, Amazon have managed to persuade loyal users to pay for and become Prime Members, thus triggering another steady revenue stream…

When you think about it, leasing a few Boeing cargo planes is but another step on a very comprehensive journey by an ultimate practitioner of customer-centricity...

Can anyone really afford to be outside this unique business model…?

Wednesday 9 March 2016

A space race, but not as we know it....online retailers could be hit by warehouse space shortage

According to a new report by property consultancy LSH in International Business Times, Amazon, Tesco, Argos and other online retailers could be hit by shrinking warehouse space. In fact, logistics space fell from a peak of 360 million sq. ft. in 2012 to 200 million sq. ft. in 2015 (Reuters).

Lambert Smith Hampton (LSH) predict that demand will exceed supply by 25 million sq. ft. by the end of the decade.

Given these retailers use a network of warehouses to ensure faster delivery of goods to customers, the shortage of storage space will affect their delivery capabilities.

Knowing that the retailers involved - and their online shoppers - don’t do waiting, it is unlikely that they will await the 1-year construction time of new-builds, and will instead race to buy available space.

Ironically, given the planning legislation, and different prices/rentals for retail vs. industrial usage, those B&M retailers with redundant large-space cannot simply switch some of their outlets over to online warehousing, although some may compromise, and ‘make do’ in the short term...

More likely we are probably going to see more consolidation/takeovers of any source of suitable warehousing, and even inter-retailer collaboration as stakeholders demonstrate their determination not to compromise the potential of the only growth-channel in town…

For suppliers, this means more complicated and rapid response logistics arrangements in a fast changing logistics landscape.

It is hopefully obvious that they will not be allowed to compromise online retailers’ ability to meet online-shopper need, as speed and availability become the only real differentiators in the online race… 

Tuesday 8 March 2016

When you don't need the brand name...

HT to Phill Barnett for pointer

Supermarkets Fastest Growth In Five Months - Source & Impact?

Taking the latest results from Nielsen and Kantar, it is encouraging that some of the mults appear to be coming back (possibly at the expense of other multiples?)…no-one ever wanted these guys to fail, and besides so much of the supplier business model is built upon growth and the mults having a major slice of the action.

However, brand-owners might usefully think about the split between brand and private label of the market data. Add to this the high rate of discounter market share growth, again at the relative expense of brands’ demand and a different picture of recovery emerges..

All pointing to the fact that brand premia are being eroded, hopefully triggering a return to basics, real basics, by the realists… 

Monday 7 March 2016

Tesco Ireland Fails To Convince Court That It Can’t Afford To Pay Staff Bonuses

News that The Labour Court in Ireland has recommended that Tesco’s Irish business pay staff their 2015 bonuses despite the retailer saying that it is not in a position to do so given its weak trading performance in the country, could have unintended consequences:

• If Tesco decide to fight this recommendation, in open court, they may be forced to divulge local profit margins…
• …with the inevitable knock-on impact in terms of putting other retailers' profitability in the spotlight
• …all in a local environment that is being increasingly subjected to corporate tax scrutiny by the US and EU…

On the bottom line, every little helps...


Friday 4 March 2016

Muhammad Ali - an inspiration to Ovaltine and the team


News that an exhibition dedicated to the great man is opening today at the O2, calls to mind his first product-endorsement tour of the UK.

Back in 1971, Ali agreed to work for a week promoting Ovaltine via an extended train trip around the UK, stopping at every station that was near a supermarket, inviting the local managers on board to meet the champ and disembark at the next station, inspired for life, in many cases.

We even managed to secure an interview on the new Michael Parkinson TV chat show, an episode that has been repeated many times since.

To our surprise, we found Ali to be a modest, even shy man, with immense presence, whose can-do attitude proved to be an inspiration personally and to other members of the team.

As fans will know, because of illness, Muhammed Ali will not be able to attend the opening session, but he has sent a mock-epilogue to commemorate the event:

'I would like to be remembered as a man who won the heavyweight title three times.

Who was humorous and who treated everyone right.

As a man who never looked down on those who looked up to him.

And who helped as many people as he could.

As a man who stood up for his beliefs no matter what.

As a man who tried to unite all humankind through faith and love.

And if all that's too much then I guess I'd settle for being remembered only as a great boxer who became a leader and a champion of his people.

And I wouldn't even mind if folks forgot how pretty I was.

Be cool and look out for the ladies!'

Wednesday 2 March 2016

Guest Blog: Are your customers taking the….funding??

By Ian Yates, Director at Barcanet

Ever had one of those days? Just as you finalise the sales and growth forecast, your key customer (or someone on their behalf) sends you that email….

‘Some years ago, your predecessors, predecessor agreed a promotion on the product you no-longer manufacture.  We have been going through our records and found that we sold a lot, but didn’t ask you for all the funding, therefore you owe us lots of money (we haven’t added loss of interest as I think we can settle this quickly ;-).  Please find attached 200 pages of documentation that substantiates what we are saying.  We will knock the value off the next payment to you.  I don’t anticipate this will impact the funding you are offering on future promotions.  Have a nice day.’

Let me explain the chain of events that got you here:
  1. Three years ago, the buying team at the customer did some analysis on what was sold during the agreed promotion, calculated what funding you owed and you paid the invoice.
  2. Around 6-months later, the customers internal finance team found that a whole bunch of sales hadn’t been included in the original calculation.  Did a new calculation and raised another invoice – you paid that as well.
  3. Another 6-12 months later, an external ‘recovery-audit’ company (specialising in retail funding/promotions) trawled through the transactions and found yet more discrepancy.  The customer had forgotten to include in the calculation all stock that was bought for the promotion (i.e. before the promotion actually started), not just what was sold.  They sent a claim to your predecessor, he hadn’t time to review it so agreed a settlement.
  4. Two years later (now), a different ‘recovery-audit’ company is doing another review.  They think they have found more errors, they aren’t altogether sure, but it kind-of looks like there are some mistakes, so they have raised a series of claims with a lot of back-up documents and sent them to you for review.
And here we are, the onus on you to fix a mess from before you even joined the company.  What do you do now?

My guess, is negotiate another settlement?  Finance and IT haven’t the time (or inclination) to get you the data, and lets be honest you don’t have the time or inclination to analyse it – so its easier to negotiate with the customer.

And that is exactly what these audit companies want.  They are remunerated by taking a share of whatever they are able to recover from you for the customer - so the more claims they raise, the more likely a negotiated settlement, the more they get paid.

Not only does this cost your business money (and cold cash at that), but it impacts on this year’s marketing budget, which means less promotions and reduces your chances of achieving target – lets start again on the sales plan!

OK, yes we can help you analyse and, where appropriate, rebut those claims (and that is a worthwhile exercise freeing your time and money).  More importantly, how do you manage this whole promotional funding process better?

Of course, utopia is for your ERP system to connect with the various promotional, ordering and AR systems to effectively manage this – but that will cost – both in time and £’s.

Quicker and cheaper – introduce a process where the relevant data is taken from these disparate systems and centrally stored and analysed on an ongoing basis, so you know your exposure at any given time (if you like, the reverse of what the recovery-audit companies do).

As a very quick starting point, here are 4 tips you should consider implementing to reduce the promotional funding administration processes:
  1. Consider inserting additional clauses into funding arrangements;
    a. ‘claims for funding’ must be made within 6-months of the promotion finishing.
    b. in the event any ‘claims for funding’ submitted are found to be illegitimate, we will charge you (the customer) at a rate of £150 per hour for the time taken to investigate and reject the claim.
    c. informing suppliers that any disclosure of ‘pricing’ or agreements to any 3rd parties will contravene the agreement or deal, this should include ‘Audit Recovery’ firms.
  2. Agree that calculations and submissions made by the customer will be treated as full and final - request a declaration from the customer before settling any funding or any cessation of supply of any product or service, confirming they have received the correct payment for goods or services to date.
  3. Build a centralised ‘log’ of claims received by customer and the settled value – showing a high % of ‘false’ claims makes negotiating the next one a little easier.
  4. Identify (internally or with the help of a 3rd party) underpayments, payments not within ‘agreed terms’ and over deductions made and submit as ‘Counter Claims’. These will at least reduce the value of any claim and may result in the customer not pursuing their claims further.
For further information or a confidential discussion, contact Ian Yates, Director at Barcanet 
Email: ian.yates@barcanet.com or Tel. +44 7868-745705

Tuesday 1 March 2016

Queueless, Cashierless Convenience, 24/7 - a Swedish Smartshop


According to Associated Press reports in Gizmodo, a 480 sq. ft. store that operates via smartphone has opened in Viken, Sweden.

A door-opening app-scan registers and allows access to creditworthy customers 24/7, goods are purchased by scanning the barcode, and the bill is paid monthly.

Behold the convenient convenience outlet of the future… 

BTW, six security cameras and a ‘crow-bar wielding’ human owner ensure the shrink-proofing of a business model that aims to bring small shops back to many communities in Sweden that have been swallowed up by supermarkets and big chain stores.

As the son of Mom ‘n Pop grocers, I would caution against the 1-month credit facility, but otherwise this Smartshop looks scaleable, exportable, and is possibly a way of diluting the minimum living wage issue for major retailers?

More here

Monday 29 February 2016

Morrisons-Amazon Supply Arrangement implications

News that Morrisons aim to supply Amazon Prime Now and Amazon Pantry customers with a wide range of Morrisons ambient, fresh and frozen products will obviously impact UK multiples' business.

NAM Implications:
  • Prime Pantry Partnership is a leap forward for Morrisons, besides optimising spare capacity in their factories...
  • Morrisons, by continuing to work with Ocado, can have little objection to Ocado offering their fulfilment services to other mults...
  • By which time, as Amazon-Morrisons coverage increases, so will Morrisons begin to compete with itself via Ocado-Morrisons
  • Meanwhile, although charging £2.99 for Prime Pantry delivery, if Prime customers ‘forget’ the annual fee, Amazon will have set a new low in delivery charges, increasing pressure on other multiples
  • …While Amazon then tightens the delivery-speed option…
  • Finally, Argos fulfilment had better be as good as is hoped…

Thursday 25 February 2016

Amazon Fashions Some Private Label

News that Amazon is introducing at least seven private label fashion brands in early 2017: Franklin & Freeman, Franklin Tailored, James & Erin, Lark & Ro, North Eleven, Scout + Ro and Society New York, represents a significant breakthrough.

These surrogate labels may not shake the foundations of Food and H&B brands - yet - but if Amazon strengths are applied to the concept, then the possibility of some real incremental competition may warrant a place on the NAM agenda.

For instance, Amazon could optimise its data-collection capabilities to read consumer trends and deliver products to match them; fill gaps in its merchandise selection that leading brands won’t supply, and, most importantly perhaps, ride the sea-change taking place in retail and fashion toward the see-now, buy-now, wear-now movement. 

Adding speed and efficiency o these strengths make them unique to Amazon…and migrating them over to private label Food and H&B would be a small step for Amazonkind…apart from revealing and filling range gaps of which even brand owners are currently unaware.

So there are advantages for all in monitoring Amazon’s early moves, however distant from a NAM’s remit...

Or why not wait until it becomes a proper threat?

Tuesday 23 February 2016

What if easyFoodstore decide to sell paint?

Given the initial success of easyJet's venture into discount food retailing, it might be interesting to explore the possible application of airline pricing to selling paint…

Customer: Hi. How much is your paint?

Clerk: Well sir, that depends on a lot of things.

Customer: Can’t you give me an approximate price?

Clerk: Our lowest price is our introductory special at $12 a gallon. After that we have dozens of different prices up to $199.

Customer: What’s the difference in the quality of the paint?

Clerk: Oh, there’s no difference. It’s all exactly the same stuff.

Customer: Well, in that case I’ll take your $12 paint.

Clerk: Well actually the $12 variety is only available on our website. If you want to buy it here at the store you’ll be charged an additional $20 Customer Convenience Fee

Customer: So if I go home and get it off the website, its only $12?

Clerk: That’s correct sir – plus a Credit Card Usage Fee of $6 and then there’s standard Shipping and Handling of $15.

Customer: What? So in other words buying online would cost me almost exactly the same as what I’d have to pay here in the store?

Clerk: I suppose so, but if you buy it here you get to use it immediately. Online purchases take ten business days to get to you – unless you pay the optional $25 Express My Paint Fee.

Customer: You’ve got to be kidding me!

Clerk: Well no sir, but it’s academic anyway as right now the $12 paint is completely sold out in both places.

Customer: That’s BS. I’m looking at shelves full of the stuff!

Clerk: Ah, but that doesn’t mean it’s available for sale. We sell only a certain number of introductory priced cans on any given day. Oops, look at that! It just became available again – at $17.50.

Customer: C’mon! You mean to say it went up while I’m standing here?!

Clerk: ‘Fraid so. Inventory control changes our prices all the time.

I strongly recommend you purchase your paint as soon as possible as it could go up again. How many gallons do you want?

Customer: Well, maybe three gallons. No, make that four, I don’t want to run out. I assume I can return anything I don’t open?

Clerk: Certainly sir. The $12 paint is non-refundable, but if you return it within 48 hours you will be entitled to a $5 credit towards the future purchase of another gallon of the same color at the same or higher price.

Customer: That’s crazy. In that case I’ll just give any unopened cans to my brother as he’s planning to repaint his home soon.

Clerk: Sorry sir, no-can-do! Our terms and CANditions – that’s a little in-house joke – prohibit paint transfer. It is strictly for the use of the original purchaser.

Customer: But wait a minute, I hadn’t spotted those “Paint Sale – $9.99* a Can” signs over there? That sounds like a much better deal.

Clerk: Ah yes, that’s from our low cost paint division. The asterisk denotes that the cans are actually half-gallons and the price is based on a minimum purchase of two. There is also an additional Environmental Fee of $5 per can, a non-refundable Can Deposit of $3.50, a Paint Facility Charge of $5 and if you want more than one color, the second has a $25 surcharge and the third is $50 extra.

Customer: This is utterly ridiculous. To hell with this! I’ll buy what I need somewhere else!

Clerk: Well sir, you may be able to buy paint for some rooms from another store, but you won’t be able to find paint for your connecting hall and stairway anywhere but here. And I should also point out that if you want Uni-Directional paint it is priced at $249 a gallon.

Customer: I thought your most expensive paint was $199!

Clerk: That’s only if you paint non-stop all the way around the room and back to the point at which you started. Stairways and hallways are considered one-way exceptions to the rule.

Customer: So, if I buy the $199 paint and use it in my hallway what are you going to do about it – send some goons in to paint over it?

Clerk: Wow, I believe you’re getting it now sir. But no, please, that would be plain silly. We’ll simply charge you a Direction Adjustment Fee plus the difference to $249 on your next purchase.

Customer: Next purchase? No way! I’m out ‘a here

Clerk: At Skyhigh Paints we never forget you have a choice, so thanks for shopping with us. Have a nice day!

Credits: 
Appears to have originated in Travel Weekly, October 1998, by Alan H. Hess

Monday 22 February 2016

Where next for Sainsbury's-Argos?

News of Steinhoff’s last minute counter-bid for Argos, from a company with a market capitalisation of €19bn vs. Sainsbury’s €6.2bn (£4.9bn), and taking into account Sainsbury’s top limit vs. Steinhoff’s opening bid, it is probable that Sainsbury’s will ask for, and receive, an extension of the bidding process to 18th March to consider their options.

However, given that they are at the limit of a cash & shares combination, it is unlikely that Sainsbury’s will enter, much less beat Steinhoff in a bidding war.

This means that Sainsbury’s NAMs need to factor in a period (until 18th March) of uncertainty and distraction. Barring accidents - some outside development by government or counter bidder - Steinhoff will be successful...

In practice the inevitability of a failure by Sainsbury's to diversify via Argos means either a re-focus on optimising the current operation ‘as is’ or a new search for further diversification opportunities. Making the best of the existing mix means growing at the expense of the other mults, sharpening its competitive edge, with the help of suppliers

NAMs need to drill down to the level of their Sainsbury’s categories in order to best position their offerings within the retailer’s competitive platform, whilst maintaining the harmony of their trading relationships with other mults.

Meanwhile, Argos NAMs need to prepare for a radically different approach to their major customer, under new ownership. This means, treating the 'new' Argos as a new customer, going back to basics and re-profiling the retailer within their customer portfolio....

Exploring how Steinhoff's other UK operations are managed might also help...



Friday 19 February 2016

Straight croissants? But what about the magic, guys?

News that Tesco have decided to de-list crescent-shaped in favour of the less-messy 'straight' option causes me to think this move could represent another crisis in the making...

Has anybody considered the ceremony associated with the purchase of a warm buttery croissant, the breaking into bite-sized chunks, applying a knob of jam - or even more unruly honey - to each, and all the while dripping flakes and spread onto plate, table and even front of clothing, while taking minimal sips of double-expresso, and conducting a business deal simultaneously...

This display of multi-tasking nearly always impresses business partners, themselves almost resisting the temptation to pinch-up the flakes and mop up the drippings in a final flourish...

On a domestic level, the traditional crescent-shape allows the family to practice the required dexterity - with enthusiastic participation by the toddler recently graduating from a milk-diet - and the added benefit of being able to recover all 'spillings' without a hint of social embarrassment. Somehow, a straight version does not have the same appeal...

Deep down, consumers, whilst conforming on perceived value-for-money, can be diverse in their needs re other aspects of a retail offering...
Personally, I struggle with the idea of tubular hard-boiled eggs..., while patiently waiting for wonky vegetables to outsell the 'straight' variety..

All of which reminds me of my early ventures in giving business advice to a Danish dairy company re the fact that their UK butter offering might prove confusing to UK shoppers because of its 'haphazard' changes in colour from yellow to white and back again during the year.

Despite my farming and Mom 'n Pop store upbringing in less politically-correct times, I persisted in recommending a purist marketing approach to this farmers' cooperative in that a consumer-test was essential in establishing whether white or yellow was the preferred colour. This insight would then determine whether the product should be bleached or coloured yellow to match consumer need...

The client politely pointed out that theirs was a natural product whose colour reflected the cow's seasonal diet, and told me they did not think much of my reservations re the brand name either...

I often wonder what ever became of Lurpak over the years....

Thursday 18 February 2016

Need for more transparency? Moi?….

Competitive forces, increasing trade pressures and endless price reductions are combining to make relative power a key issue in unprecedented times…

Because running a business, supply or retail, means achieving and managing a delicate balance of the conflicting interests of shareholders, lenders, customers, workers, management, government and perhaps even the consumer-shopper, knowing the inevitability of compromise diluting profitability, and being measured via 20/20 hindsight, it is understandable that those ‘in charge’ are often tempted to respond more readily to the most powerful demands.

In a trading relationship, it is relatively easy to shift from assertion to aggression in dealing with an up-the-line partner when attempting to meet the demands of the more powerful of the internal stakeholders. Acknowledging that consumer power is the key driver, then logically this means the system only works if power diminishes as one moves back up the supply chain…

Starting with consumer-shoppers’ ability to vote with their feet, or their ability to command the help of government if their needs/rights are being ignored, the real power resides on the shop floor (or rather the floor of the shop), and cannot be ignored…

Given retailers’ ability to aggregate and apply buying muscle, they can appear to have more focused and usable power, which they then apply further up the supply chain. The finished goods supplier by definition has more power than the ingredients supplier and proceeds/needs to apply that power in driving down costs…

Governments come on board when they perceive that a shift in the power balance could result in votes being lost as they struggle with their compromises… Hence their interference when the farmers are under pressure, retailers are ‘over consolidating’, or a detrimental change in the health of the consumer-shopper is in danger of driving up healthcare costs…

Suppliers and retailers need to anticipate these inevitabilities, plan for appropriate change and prepare plausible explanations for the lead-times required.

Transparency can help.

With so many of the company’s systems/models designed for internal consumption and to meet internal needs, then accidental or forced exposure to outside eyes reveals their ‘bias’ and renders them indefensible…

The question of whether one should have to explain is not the issue (i.e. whilst refusal to explain can be interpreted an attempt at concealment, willingness to explain does not necessarily imply weakness).

It is perhaps better to accept the inevitability of total transparency, and design policies, systems and process that are fully defensible, internally and externally. Only then can we have the courage to be transparent.

In the process of attempting to fully understand partners’ views as we strive towards greater transparency from their perspective, our position can become more defensible, and result in our ability to build and use expert power, to the disadvantage of less transparent competitors…

As more transparent key influencers accumulate more power in the market, then this wish for a less opaque trading environment may even become self-fulfilling…..

Tuesday 16 February 2016

'Smell-by' dates adding to the usable-life of food?

Essentially, as uncertainty continues to be the norm for many families, resulting in consumers limiting spending to essential items, it is perhaps useful to consider the impact of financially-stretched consumers attempting to extend the usable life of food in these uncertain times.

When smaller, closer, faster, more convenient shopping becomes the norm, consumers are in a better position to monitor fridge contents, will rotate stocks more effectively, and thereby waste less via 'on-time' usage.

If we couple this with major multiples attempts to limit instore food wastage, and political pressures to donate surplus produce to charities, then it becomes obvious that significant demand is being taken out of the market.

However, if consumers are also beginning to revert to Granny’s method of judging food quality by its smell, they will in effect add even more to a product’s usable life, thus taking more demand from the market.

The result will be flat-line demand for fresh produce, at best, with any growth coming at the expense of available competition, based on a savvy assessment of Product, Price, Presentation and Place….

NB. NAMs closer to the fresh food sector will immediately appreciate that increased use of ‘smell-by’ dating may result in unintended consequences based on irradiation of foodstuffs, whereby media attention will be re-directed at food processing in a search for clarity…

Winning In FMCG - How Brands Can Win in the Age of the Discounters

Guest blog by Richard Nall, The Brand Garden

Pop over to Germany and drop into a Real or V-Markt and you’ll glimpse a possible future: stores that feel more like B&Q with the typical superstore range we take for granted tacked on at the side.  On a more forensic examination, you might note a seemingly odd allocation of space for FMCG categories and brands (just how do Milka or Tempo deserve all that space?) with few promotions.  You realise that this might be more about survival than coherent FMCG retailing in the sense we have known it.  You might also note something about those brands that are flourishing...  

In short they must have done, and continue to do, the basics very well.  It’s the only explanation in a world of limited differentiation and marginal gains.  Their consumer segmentation and clarity on the leading category/brand insights will be sorted.  Brand and architecture models will be powerfully crystalised and executed ‘through-the-line’ with a long-term view of innovation requirements.  They will align this to a flexible approach to promotions and tactical SKUs within a pragmatically commercial framework.  In negotiations, they recognise the value they bring their customers’ as distinctive brands & category builders.  

This is the key.  
Through building distinctive, relevant brands, these brand owners help rescue these retailers.  They support the rationale for shoppers to return rather than head for Aldi and Lidl.  And herein lies the problem for many brands in this Brave New World.  If it is there in the first place, the clarity of proposition and discipline in consistent execution is quite often lost through fragmented commercial teams.  Weak P&L management means that margin/trade spend has been conceded over the years to the extent that many brands struggle to receive the investment they need.  Rather than being concentrated or, at the very least, aligned, awareness-generating monies are split between sales, category, shopper and consumer marketing teams, and used to meet their respective, turf-driven agendas.  

Yet, as always in the gloom, there are rays of light.  Challenger brands’ growth has been the success story of the last 15 years, bringing interest to homogenised categories, and offering a recipe for success for the future.  You do not need to be big today to succeed tomorrow, and being in a rush to grow might do you a dis-service as consumers take time to evolve their shopping habits.  The well-travelled phrase ‘more haste, less speed’ is very apt here.  

Be clear regarding the market in which you are competing.  Define it narrowly and you will miss growth opportunities; be too broad and it will be meaningless.  Be ruthlessly clear on your brand proposition, and leverage that through innovation and distinctive communication.  Make sure you really do understand the available consumer touch points, and be creative in your solutions.  You don’t need a big spend to have impact but you must maximise the value of each and every part of the marketing mix you can afford.  

Think Innocent and Tyrrell’s and start with packaging and SRP.  Learn from Williams Murray Hamm’s packvertising design approach.  Think ‘less is more’ and ‘concentrate for effect’.  Market size and creative power are two of the biggest drivers of exponential sales gain so use them to your advantage.  Make sure you have proper and mutual challenge and debate with your agencies.  You don’t need stand-up rows but you should encourage the creative tension of passionate conversation and short-term disagreement.  

If you’re still wedded solely to traditional communications techniques, be creative in your negotiations with the broadcasters and expand your horizon.  Take advantage of the opportunities that digital media represent, always remembering that the consumer journey is like a funnel so ‘mass awareness effect’ should remain your ultimate goal even if it might take time to get there…don’t waste your money on gimmicks, and make your digital choices wisely.  On the other hand, if you aren’t using some of your marketing spend to test the RoI of alternatives then you are missing a trick so strike a balance.  Be clear on the investment and communications decision-maker (one!).  

Next, remember that your customers need you brand owners now more than ever before, but only if your brands, large or small, are fit to fight on their behalf.  Fail this test and you will be deservedly culled.  The reality is that it does not matter how good you are today, it will not be good enough tomorrow.  A tricky race is only going to get trickier...

To see how we can help you irrigate your business, contact Richard Nall on +44 (0) 7796 930 228 © The Brand Garden 2015

Friday 12 February 2016

BOGOF R.I.P. - A sideways swipe at waste?

BOGOF Grave

With Asda re-discovering its Walmart roots by ditching multi-buys, and Sainsbury’s clearing the multi-buy shelves by Summer, Tesco and Morrisons will not risk looking odd by comparison, meaning 'Hello EDLP....'

Eliminating multi-buys, means less scope for waste, matching purchase with need, simpler pricing helping shoppers identify real value, prices moving to EDLP, with Stelios establishing new levels of Low @25p…

In fact, best to see it as part of a war on waste, coupled with a move to supermarkets donating excess produce to charity, people eating less, in a move to healthier living…

Meanwhile, consumer-shoppers have to sharpen their savviness by getting their heads around Unit Pricing - you really think they all understand it? - with supermarkets playing their part by emphasising price per unit, AND PRINTING IT BIGGER…

Finally, joining all the above dots, NAMs, having been spared the task of trying to make a multi-buy seem profitable, now have to focus on growing at the expense of competition within the resulting flatline - or even falling - demand in many categories…

Thursday 11 February 2016

Confusing promos morphing into savvy-shopper alienation


If making promos difficult to compare is the objective, then stakeholder efforts are working well, in that Watchdog deal-quizzing of consumers found that just one in 50 was able to choose the cheapest option....

If driving sales in flat-line markets is the objective, then, according to the Daily Mail, then such confusion is causing shoppers to spend an extra £1,200/annum.

                                                                                                                    Source: The Daily Mail

What no one is measuring is the negative impact on brand equity amid the creeping suspicion of being misled. Even more serious is the fact that, in the absence of effective self-regulation - last year, the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) said it had found evidence of misleading supermarket promotions following investigations into a super-complaint submitted to the regulator by consumer watchdog Which? - the government could intervene in order to clarify the position for shoppers...

Think bureaucracy and 'government language' to explore the implications.

How much better if suppliers and retailers worked together to attempt to retrieve some of their respective brand equity by aiming at clarity and sustainable like-with-like comparison of promos, before the government is forced to assist...

Monday 8 February 2016

Power play in supplier-retailer negotiation – how to level the playing-field in 2016

Power play in business is not exclusively about dealings between suppliers and retailers. In fact, it is more about interactions between large and smaller organisations…

Equally, we need to distinguish between being fair in our business dealings, and securing our fair share in negotiated settlements. 

If we choose to define fair-play as respect for the rules and/or equal treatment of all concerned, as in sport, fine. However, if we assert that all players are equal in business, we can seem naĂŻve. Patently they are not. Business is not about equality, or fairness, and attempts by a government to impose standards of fair-play based on ‘equality’ are doomed to failure.

It is about two different organisations, often representing different business models, finding ways of accommodating their differing needs in an arrangement that satisfies each party, more or less…. 

Playing fair was something parents and teachers tried to enforce in the playground, and has little application in negotiation. In fact, in these unprecedented times, it can be more productive to talk about fair share – reflecting relative risk – as the basis for grown-up business negotiation.

In other words, given that both parties in a negotiation session take risks via the give-and-take process between ‘equal’ partners, exchanging information and insights that are capable of being abused in the wrong hands, it follows that a fair-share result is one where the rewards are divided in proportion to the perceived risks taken by the counterparties, and each is willing to continue the relationship.

If successful negotiation is defined as a series of matched concession exchanges between equal partners, it clearly cannot take place between two companies of unequal size, unless the NAM can redefine the size of the ball-park.

For instance, as negotiation success is often determined by relative size of business, Tesco's £62bn sales and 28% share of retail market will generally tip the power-balance in their favour for all but the largest suppliers.

All other suppliers need to find ways of leveling the playing field in order to make both parties ‘equal’.

In practice, this means moving from a business-to-business discussion of obvious inequality, where being delisted from Tesco can mean a factory closes, to a focus on a category or even a sub-category where your brand can be positioned as a ‘must-have’ for Tesco, compared with available alternatives, and for that moment you and Tesco can be regarded as business ‘equals’... The key is realism, and an ability to calculate and demonstrate the connection between a supplier’s product offering to the desired financial performance of a major customer. Little else matters in the current economic climate.

UK multiples are currently experiencing unprecedented set-backs, suffering seemingly irreversible share loss to the discounters and local convenience, all under the spotlight of the GCA, with Tesco’s GSCOP report merely a starting point, an investigation by the Financial Reporting Council under way, a SFO seemingly just steps away from imposing financial penalties and a government needing to optimise Corporation Tax returns.

In addition, shifts in consumer shopping behaviour to smaller, faster, closer, more frequent, more convenient purchasing, has resulted in large space redundancy, all diluting major retailer profitability, in the eyes of the stock market.

In other words, it could be said that UK major retailers are now in the market for unprecedented degrees of collaboration with suppliers, more tailor-making to local need, and could be more receptive to the idea of fair-share negotiation.

However, UK multiples are still very powerful players controlling major routes to consumer, and cannot afford to be ‘pushovers’…, but they are more vulnerable than ever before.

This has to represent a significant opportunity, a useful starting point, for those suppliers that are prepared to go back to the fundamentals of consumer need in a radically changed marketplace, re-establish the value to consumers of their essential offering vs. available alternatives, and eliminate any surplus from the consumer’s point of view.

It is then necessary to realistically assess the extent to which each of the multiples has been impacted by the above market changes and issues. Specifically, this means establishing their  ability to meet the needs of your core consumer, compared with other members of the Big Four.

This will help you to establish the specifics of the retailers need-set, as a basis for comparing your ability to satisfy those needs, better than available competition. All based on what we have, all we have, our most valuable asset, consumer trust…

You are then ready to prepare for fair-share negotiation…      



Friday 5 February 2016

easyFoodstore, Another easyDisrupter? - Comments on the spot from our North London correspondent


Brian Peataque (above), a senior savvy-shopper from Hove-actually, commented: "Normally, this stretch of the North Circular would put years on anyone, but I am excited at the prospect of getting eight SKUs for £2".

                                                                                                                                       pic: bmoore

Following a degree of shopper-demand the mults need to envy, the store had to close on Wednesday to replenish stocks, and opened again this morning.

                                                                                                                                       pic: bmoore

A single check-out, folks...

The future?
With a basic range of 76 products, approx. 500 sq. ft., and one checkout, if Stelios can make the numbers work on 25p - or even 50p - his latest market-disrupter is infinitely scalable....

This has to cause branded suppliers to seek non-compromising ways into the discounter channel, ideally via branded discounters...

NB. For NAMs not accustomed to using easyTransport, easyFoodstore is part of the easyBus depot on the North Circular, a slipway a few hundred yards north of Hanger Lane junction.

Saturday 30 January 2016

If Carlsberg did shopping trolleys... (Asda Clapham Junction)



In an effort to improve the shopping experience, Carlsberg worked with custom car experts Yiannimize to create a motorized trolley complete with an electric engine, a beer cooling system and satellite navigation. No more warm crates of beer, getting lost in the supermarket and struggling with wonky shopping trolley wheels.



Tuesday 26 January 2016

GCA-Tesco Investigation, What Now?

The GCA Investigation report establishes a basis for suppliers wishing to bench-mark and re-set their relationships with Tesco and other retailers.

Nothing beats a detailed reading of the report in order to identify key aspects to a supplier’s actual trading relationship with Tesco, but application has to be top-of-mind….

In practice, suppliers need to revisit all aspects of their trading relationship and establish working limits, i.e. walkaway points, in each case.

Essentially, the report provide two key areas for immediate application, Credit periods and Deductions.

Credit Periods
Tesco currently pays suppliers in 44 days on average, and the GCA report (7.3) refers to a Competition Commission Report published in 2000 that noted ....retailers delaying payments to suppliers beyond contractual payment periods or by more than 30 days from the date of invoices may adversely affect the competitiveness of some suppliers. 

In practice, for daily delivered SKUs, it could be said that seven days is even more appropriate, but every little helps…

However, strictly speaking, GSCOP specifies that breaches occur when a retailer deviates from a negotiated agreement on terms i.e. the onus is on suppliers to reach agreement on a 30-day credit period if they wish reduce their exposure and operate on that basis.

Deductions:
The report also focuses on unilateral deductions and gives sufficient examples for suppliers to use as a basis for internal adjustment of their systems. Essentially, this means assessing their supplier-retailer relationships re
- Unilateral deductions made in relation to historic claims (Post-audit recovery)
- Unilateral deductions for short deliveries and service level charges
- Unilateral deductions made for other items or unknown items

Given that it can be easier to document each aspect of the trading relationship in advance of execution, if only to avoid having to recover two year old documents under the pressure of a two week buyer deadline, suppliers need to establish ways of minimising post-audit claims, agree and document delivery and service level conditions and anticipate possible deductions for any other breaches.

The pending SFO report - due this week - will add numbers to the above, as well as fleshing out Trade investment definitions and measures.

On balance, the GCA and SFO reports can provide a basis for suppliers to revert to basics with Tesco, treating the company as a new major customer. This means re-assessing Tesco’s relative competitive appeal vs other customers from a consumer-shopper point of view (think media fall-out from both reports), the retailer’s development life-cycle in a radically changed market, and the characteristics that qualify them as an Invest, Maintain or Divest customer, all tailored to your brand consumer...

Finally, for your category, an objective re-assessment of your relative competitive appeal vs Tesco’s new appetites arising from both GCA and SFO investigations will help you determine the strength of your negotiation position in re-setting and optimising the opportunity window partially opened this morning by the GCA Report... 

Monday 25 January 2016

SFO Tesco investigation set to conclude this week

According to CityAM, quoting Cantor Fitzgerald’s Mike Dennis, the investigation could be wrapped up this week. Any fine/redress will obviously impact Tesco’s cash position in terms of repayment and re-financing bonds, adding to pressures on the company.

Longer term we believe that the government will legislate re the accounting for trade investment, and probably move to retro-payment based on auditable results. 

This means a move for suppliers to building in KPIs and compliance for every trade initiative, an inevitable and long overdue progression to fair-share dealing....

This development coupled with Tesco’s loss of market share, and unlikelihood of a return to old market dominance, means that suppliers are in a stronger position re negotiation of compliance.

A once-only opportunity for NAMs that are prepared to go all the way…

Thursday 21 January 2016

Counting on Tesco brand values to drive improved performance

                                                                                                                       Chart: CityAM                                                                                                              
The YouGov Index score shows a brand’s overall health and is a combination of several metrics – namely its Impression, Quality, Value, Satisfaction and Reputation measures.

The chart speaks for itself and echoes Tesco’s sales results from Jan 2014 to Jan 2016, through a low point in December 2014 and a continuing upward trend into 2016…making the point that at base, it’s the brand that counts, more than a little…

A Tesco on the way back now has to nurture its delicate relationships with shoppers  and suppliers – and regulators – to avoid even a little unhelpful misstep….

HT to Andy Parker for pointer

Wednesday 20 January 2016

Trade Investment Accountability and how Governments will legislate…

Following the Tesco Accounting scandal, a lack of consensus among the UK's major food retailers is detracting from efforts by the Financial Reporting Council (FRC) to improve the way that companies report complex supplier arrangements and will prolong the uneven disclosure of supplier income, according to a new report by Moody’s Investors Service - more here

NAM Implications:
  • The combination of inconsistency and scale of payments involved means that governments will eventually legislate to optimise taxable income
  • It is probable that such legislation will be conservative (small ‘c’), retrospective, i.e. paid after-the-event and based on measurable results,  the only certainty...
  • In other words, all trade investment will specify KPIs, build in compliance, and payments will be withheld until auditable results are available
NAMs and their customers had best prepare for the inevitable…

The ultimate T-cut: Asda plans to axe free tea and toast perk for staff

Reports in The Standard that Asda will stop providing breakfast perks, which also include coffee and vending machines, insisting it must make “tough decisions”,  means that the company could fall foul of the Law of Unintended Consequences.....

Although possibly a minor scratch for the owners, this could be major gash for the recipients, and their unions…

Think also of the massive signal being sent to the market – ‘I knew their Christmas was bad, but…’

It remains to be seen how this T-cut application will affect the staff-shopper interface, but the issue for NAMs has to be how this 'financial viability' parameter will impact their next session with the buyer… 

Tuesday 19 January 2016

Amazon Rumoured To Be Eyeing Tie-Up With Ocado

City rumours reported in The Daily Mail yesterday suggested that Amazon is preparing to make an approach for Ocado as part of its plans to launch a full grocery delivery service in the UK.

NAM Implications:
  • For Amazon this means leap-frogging years of food-delivery expertise in the UK’s most concentrated M25 market
  • For Ocado, a takeover by Amazon provides a means of capitalising on their investment to date in leading-edge fulfilment and a degree of food-delivery experience that far outranks* Amazon Fresh, besides providing an additional revenue stream via third party retail usage of their facilities
  • For the mults, already tempted to outsource fulfilment to a 'manageable' Ocado, joining with the biggest elephant in the room might be too tight a squeeze…
  • ...and no mention of money, because the potential gains are so obvious for Amazon…
*See Paul Clarke Ocado presentation 

Monday 18 January 2016

HomeBunnings - an Au shake-up of the UK DIY sector?

News of Bunnings £340m takeover of Homebase means inevitable change to DIY retailing.
Wesfarmers need to justify an overseas investment, Bunnings need to make an impact, and the competition need to make counteracting moves.

What is certain is all DIY retailers are now in the market for innovative instore - and car-park - theatre* initiatives.

A must-take opportunity for all suppliers to be first from the trap, while others sit and wait...

* Bunnings is known for its “sausage sizzles” outside stores where local sports or community groups are allowed to set up stalls and sell food to customers, UK weather permitting....

Saturday 16 January 2016

A 'Bowie-comment' on the global stockmarket rout

Ground Control to Major Tim
Ground Control to Major Tim
Take your Man up pills and put tin helmet on

Ground Control to Major Tim
Commencing meltdown, algos on
Check deflation and may Goldman Sachs be with you

This is Ground Control to Major Tim
You’ve really made bad trades
And the papers want to know whose shirts you’ll wear
Now it’s time to leave the free-fall if you dare

This is Major Tim to Ground Control
The markets are through the floor
And the £’s floating in a most peculiar way
And the stats look very different today

For here
Am I with a tin hat on
Just got out of bed
All the markets are bright red
And there’s no easing from the Fed

Now I’ve lost one hundred thousand pounds
I’m feeling very sick
But I think my broker knows which way to go
Tell my bank I owe it very much you know

Ground Control to Major Tim
Your stop-loss is dead,
You’re really on a limb
Can you hear me, Major Tim?
Can you hear me, Major Tim?
Can you hear me, Major Tim?
Can you….

For here
Am I with a tin hat on
Just got out of bed
All the markets are bright red
And there’s no easing from the Fed….

Source: Stephenroi - comment on The Slog https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/ 15-01-2016

Wednesday 13 January 2016

Guest Blog: Releasing cash is always faster than generating sales

5 levers to release cash....
By Ian Yates, Director at Barcanet

Looking for cash...want to avoid the travel ban, release funds for innovation, identify more efficient operating models?

Historically, companies have managed costs through a series of (mainly) uncoordinated technologies and processes, supported by tactical initiatives when budgets needed to be squeezed.

Today, with competitors constantly innovating and new entrants changing the game, businesses need to take a more enduring approach to cost optimisation and find new operating models and/or efficiencies to release the cash needed to fund their own innovation and growth.

Working with hundreds of businesses around the world, I have found the following five levers consistently optimise spend across any business operating cost;

1. Visibility
Whether you run a multi-national organisation with disparate systems, and de-centralised supply-base or a sole-supply contract with complex commercial or operational terms, getting visibility of spend, usage and performance drives better decision making.

The visibility lever will;
  • Centralise usage and costs data
  • Bring transparency to complex categories and contracts
  • Provide governance for your business policies
Giving the right insight, to the right people, at the right time allows for simple data-driven decision making.

2. Compliance
Errors in invoices or missed discounts accounts for up to 3% of the cost of goods/services bought in some categories. Some estimates put ‘procurement fraud’ at as much as 1% of a businesses turnover.

The compliance lever includes factors such as;
  • AP and contact commercial terms compliance
  • Governance over days-to-pay and early-payment discounts
  • Identification of shadow/rogue spend
Finance and ERP systems deliver an element of this compliance, but a lot of value is lost throughout the process. Pre-payment audit routines and insightful reporting retains cash in the business and provides the mechanism to drive change.

3. Consumption
Be that non-production, “We were paying $5m per annum on mobile phone services for people who had already left the business – some of them years ago!” or production, “We used 0.5% more in one factory than another, with almost identical outputs, doesn’t seem a lot but the cost was millions per year”.

The consumption lever brings insight to make simple, data-driven decisions;
  • Benchmarking internal usage and cost profiles
  • Optimising assets
  • Making users accountable
Generating the realisation of cost brings behavioural and cultural change. Users are in the best position to reduce costs and bring faster innovation to business operating models.

4. Price
Over two-thirds of CPO’s see cost reduction as a priority, and yet 84% are not satisfied with the levels of insight they receive. Businesses need to recruit well and have a strategy for these procurement professionals to align with. However arming them with good, consistent data allows the team to negotiate and manage suppliers from a position of knowledge.

The price lever comes from;
  • A suite of reports of spend and usage from all silo’s in the business
  • Insight to business and new product strategy
  • Supplier performance and risk management insight
Procurement working as a business partner rather than simply a cost reduction specialist, better defines the business objectives for the supply base, increasing agility, optimising costs and reducing supply-chain risks.

5. Process
Simplification and standardisation are two of the key words I hear repeated at almost every customer. But where do you focus resource where it really matters?

The process lever provides the business and the change agents with insight to identify these areas and data on where best practice is being achieved;
  • Benchmarking cost, usage, margin and ROI
  • Identifying why rogue/shadow spend happens – what is the benefit
  • Identifying impacts across silos

You will find some components of these levers are simple to implement, others require a more structured approach to sustain the benefits over the longer term. However, these benefits can be significant and worth the investment - sustainable reductions of 20-50% of operating expenses.


More details here

For further information, contact Ian Yates, Director at Barcanet
Email: ian.yates@barcanet.com or Tel. +44 7868-745705


Aldi's older UK stores growth slowdown - beginning of the end, or end of the beginning?

With Aldi growing new space by 10-15% per annum, the discounter is clearly racing to reach its full foot-print potential in the UK.

Although like-for-like sales in stores open more than 1 year are 1%, the emphasis has to be on making the Aldi offer accessible to the entire UK population, in the current flat-line market. Given the relatively low cost of opening new outlets, Aldi – and Lidl – are better able to afford a greater degree of geographical infilling than are the redundant-space mults.

It could therefore be said that Aldi are approaching the end of the beginning of the first discounter-wave in the UK.

With Kantar figures showing Aldi and Lidl attracting 1m more shoppers to their stores, resulting in a 13.3% and 18.5% jump in sales respectively, it can be seen that initial access to their offering can be lucrative for the discounters. Given that they are simultaneously pushing upmarket, successfully, and with no end to flat-line demand in sight, the discounters are surely pursuing the right priorities in this market.

Given eventual discounter outlet saturation, both players will then have sufficient financial momentum to focus on optimising like-for-like performance at local level, well in advance of any end in sight…

Meanwhile, branded suppliers have to find ways of sharing in this discounter growth. This means finding ways of moving from the ‘ongoing continuous relationship’ process that was possible with traditional retailers, to the ad hoc transactional dealings necessary with discounters.

For instance, a little-noticed announcement by NestlĂ© some weeks ago re highlighting its confectionery brands in all of Aldi’s German outlets, indicates one of the moves being made towards continuous collaboration with this increasingly important route to consumer for major brands…

To help your colleagues focus on this challenge, why not consider running a what-if on the Aldi-Lidl combination eventually moving from a 10% to a 20% share of the UK grocery market?


Sunday 10 January 2016

A Brand New Challenge?

                                                                                                      Pic: Brilliant Ads

Wednesday 6 January 2016

Argos - a Local-leap by Sainsbury's?

Yesterday’s surprise announcement of an initial rebuff by HRG not only places the Argos-Homebase combination firmly in the takeover frame, but also sets a minimum starting price of £1bn.

The advantages for Sainsbury’s in terms of adding to their non-food offering, making more use of big-space via a transfer of Argos Click & Collect, and re-acquiring a DIY operation they sold some years back, combined with successful initial trials of Argos shop-in-shop make this a must-have acquisition, but not at any price.

Incidentally, gaining access to Argos Click & Collect expertise hopefully does not rank high in terms of plus-points, given that this ‘mail-order’ company transitioned into ‘hard-copy’ click & collect as an extension of their original business rather than a high-tech entry into online…

It also goes without saying that Argos vs. Amazon is a no-contest battle, on any parameter…

In terms of upping-the-ante, with a market capitalisation of £5bn, a share price showing a 57% drop since 2008, and continuing pressure from the discounters, Sainsbury’s is not in a position to raise their bid significantly in the month that remains in which to make an improved offer.

However, having put HRG in the spotlight, other mults now have until 2nd February to assess the relative appeal of acquisition in terms of similar advantages to their businesses.

In practice, Tesco and Morrisons are currently distracted by more pressing issues, but Asda’s Walmart (Mkt Cap $196bn) would have little problem in covering ‘whatever it takes’ to add scale to their UK repertoire…

On balance, the next move depends on the extent to which Sainsbury’s faith in the future of Local convenience causes them to consider converting ‘as many as it takes’ of Argos 800 High Street outlets – moving more Argos ranges into larger Sainsbury’s outlets – into additional Local branches, and persuading their largest shareholder - Qatari - to make up the difference…

Tuesday 5 January 2016

Amazon Pantry could help itself to Ocado's lunch, but the combination impacts us all


                                                                                 Source: Wired via Business Insider

An article in Business Insider, acknowledges that the introduction of Amazon Pantry, already impacting Ocado shares, down 35% since June 2015, is hurting Ocado, but reports that Goldman Sachs has an interesting theory about how this might actually be good for Ocado.

Essentially, apart from putting Ocado into the takeover frame, Amazon Pantry will add to pressure on the mults, pointing them at possibly leasing Ocado's online platform and delivery infrastructure, and, as per Paul Clarke's presentation above, online grocery delivery is more complicated than general merchandise.

However, the real issue is that the combination of Amazon and Ocado expertise is raising the online bar to such an extent that other retailers may not even bother...

NB Making a difference to your online approach in 2016:  If you want a real insight into the unprecedented standards being set by Ocado in developing an online multi-product delivery-pipeline into your home, see CEO Paul Clarke's 16min +10min Q&A presentation to the Wired Retail conference above