Study Shows Supermarket Shoppers Switched Brands During Pandemic

Only 38% of consumers in the UK remained loyal to their usual brands in supermarkets during the pandemic.

The research by artificial intelligence specialist Antuit.ai found that consumers who switched were more likely to have traded down on grocery brands during the period than those who traded up from own-label to brands. 20% said they traded down from brands to own-label during the pandemic, compared to just 14% who traded up.

NamNews Implications:

• Curious that a move to private label is still regarded as a ‘trading down’ move.
• See Gen 4 of our paper ‘Four Generations of Private Label’
• That said, ‘Saving money was the main motivation for those switching to own label (55%)’…
• …and branded suppliers need to factor that in.
• The key is reassessing relative competitive appeal within your post-Lockdown categories…
• …whilst ensuring you include private label (all Generations) as ‘available competitors’.

#PrivateLabel #Competition

Disappointing Quarter Amazon; Facing Soaring Costs

 Amazon reported a big fall in profits yesterday and highlighted that it was facing billions of dollars in extra costs to manage supply chain and labour shortage challenges over the key festive period.

After benefitting from the surge in online shopping during the pandemic, Amazon’s third-quarter results disappointed Wall Street. Net income fell by 50% to $3.16bn on total revenues up only 15% to $110.8bn – the company’s slowest rate of growth since 2015.

NamNews Implications:

• Fortunately for Amazon, they have not even started to use accumulated muscle…
• Meanwhile, to maintain its consumer-centric reputation they will have to absorb costs:
• labour rates
• supply chain bumps
• But there are limits, even for Amazon.
• i.e. suppliers will feel the pain before consumers…

#AmazonSlows #ProfitSqueeze

Coca-Cola Trialling New Refillable Concept

Coca‑Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP) has started trialling a new refillable, on-the-go soft drinks solution.

The pilot is taking place in Stockholm, Sweden, at a PBX convenience store in collaboration with GLACIAL beverage containers.

The concept allows consumers to buy or bring their own drinks containers to fill, choosing from more than 60 flavours, including the Coca-Cola, Fanta, Sprite, FuzeTea and Smartwater brands.

NamNews Implications:

• In effect, moving dispensers from behind the bar to the front…
• i.e. from on to off-trade…
• ‘Simple’ and neat…
• “Now why didn’t I think of that…?”

#Refillables #Creativity

Iceland Giving Away Free Food

Iceland Foods has rolled out a new scheme called ‘Free on Last Day of Life’ as part of its efforts to reduce food waste. The initiative will see online shoppers offered free products when the last day of shelf life has been reached and no other stock is available.

Traditionally, food items delivered by Iceland has a minimum shelf life of at least two days. However, products close to expiry will now be given away to prevent them being wasted.

NamNews Implications:

• ‘…we to have find an innovative way to combat (food waste)…’ - says it all, for most retailers.
• But what makes Iceland different is the imaginative way they package the idea…
• Their ‘Free on Last Day of Life scheme’ not only helps reduce food waste but also supports our customers.
• (in a way that also grabs headlines….)
• Watch this space…

#FoodWaste #Innovation #Creativity

Unilever Warns Of More Price Rises To Counter Increasing Costs

Alongside its third-quarter results today, Unilever became the latest consumer goods manufacturer to warn that more price rises were on the cards as it battles spiralling input cost inflation.

Over the three months to 30 September, the group’s underlying sales rose a slightly better-than-expected 2.5% to €13.5bn. This was driven by an average price increase of 4.1% across its product range which counteracted a 1.5% fall in volumes.

NamNews Implications:

• P&G, Colgate-Palmolive, General Mills, Kimberly-Clark, Nestlé, PepsiCo and now Unilever…
• Price rises are coming.
• The only issue is whether average increases of 4.1% for Unilever…
• …are anything like enough?
• i.e. can we anticipate even steeper hikes to come?
• Meanwhile, rivals in Unilever’s categories might benefit from a line by line comparison with Unilever brands and geographies…?

#PriceInflation #SupplyChainInflation

EG Group Pulls Out Of £750m Deal To Buy Asda’s Petrol Stations

After agreeing to buy Asda, Mohsin and Zuber Issa, the founders of EG, and their private equity backers TDR Capital, announced plans in February to finance the acquisition in part by selling the supermarket’s petrol stations to their own forecourts business for £750m.

Asda will retain the petrol forecourts business and the associated revenue and profits. However, the £750m expected from the deal will now come from £500m of debt and £250m of its own cash.

NamNews Implications:

• £500m extra debt means sweating Asda more…
• Apart from pressures on costs of goods and shelf price increases.
• Fingers crossed re the £1bn sale of Asda distribution assets.

#PrivateEquity #Asda #RetailDebt

Grocery Sales Down, Prices Up; Tesco Outperforms Market

Take-home grocery sales fell by 1.2% over the 12 weeks to 3 October, partly because the reduced availability of petrol led to shoppers limiting the number of trips they made to supermarkets.

Despite the dip, the data from Kantar shows sales remain 8.1% higher than they were before the pandemic and every retailer recorded better sales compared with the same period in 2019.

NamNews Implications:

• Key for suppliers to compare their sales with anticipatory Christmas shopping by cautious shoppers.
• Despite relatively little share movement, worth comparing the detail re your business…
• NB. the discounters are still an issue for Big Retail, despite counteracting moves by the mults…

#LockdownResults #MultsShares

Tesco Posts Impressive Results After Defying Supply Chain Disruption, But Challenges Ahead

Tesco raised its full-year profit forecast today after reduced costs related to the pandemic and its strong supply chain helped it deliver better-than-expected first-half results.

Tesco saw its like-for-like sales in the UK climb 1.2% over the 26 weeks to 28 August. This followed a 0.5% rise in the first quarter, accelerating to 2% in the second as comparatives softened due to the easing of Covid restrictions in the summer last year.

NamNews Implications:

• ‘UK’s biggest player was able to leverage its supplier relationships and distribution capability to maintain good levels of product availability…
• …events such as Euro 2020 and staycations helped.’
• The key for suppliers is to compare their Tesco performance by format, geography and category.
• Rest assured that Tesco’s ‘bumps in the road’ will be less than those of rivals.
• After all, every little helps… (to ward off PE predators…)

#PrivateEquity #SupplyShortages #Christmas

HFSS Restrictions Offer Opportunities In Convenience Channel

Despite millions of pounds being at risk from the upcoming HFSS restrictions, new analysis highlights some opportunities for retailers and brands in the convenience channel.

The UK Government will introduce new rules for high fat, sugar and salt (HFSS) products in October 2022. They will restrict the advertising of HFSS brands, volume promotions, and the display of HFSS products in-store.

NamNews Implications:

• Stores smaller than 2,000 sq. ft. are an obvious opportunity for some suppliers.
• However, many of whom cannot afford to drill down to that level of coverage, post-Lockdown.
• Making it key to enhance supplier-wholesaler relationships…
• Fast…
• Meanwhile, for stores above 2,000 sq. ft., see the detail of the IRI analysis…

#HFSS #PromoRestrictions

Future Of Morrisons To Be Decided By Auction This Weekend

The UK’s takeover regulator has ruled that the four-month-long fight for Morrisons will be decided by an auction between two private equity groups on Saturday. (details)

NamNews Implications:

• Obviously going to the wire.
• Either way, Morrisons will be PE owned by November…
• Needing a whole new way of managing by NAMs
• See ‘The implications of Private Equity takeover of a Mult’

#MorrisonsFuture #PrivateEquity

Suppliers Seeking Support To Push Through Price Increases In Coming Weeks

Higher supply chain costs are expected to drive up prices in supermarkets by at least 5% in the coming weeks, with more increases to follow.

NamNews Implications:

• Time to take a 5% increase for granted...?
• Perhaps some what-ifs re 10% increases in your category might be of benefit?
• More importantly, it is essential to place these inevitable increases within a realistic context of:
• Shell-shocked consumers emerging from the trauma of 18 month lockdown
• To face the uncertainties of job security
• Increased taxation vs lower public services
• A super-savvy consumer better able to calculate ingredient cost in foods
• More determined to demand demonstrable value for money
• At the very least, this will result in a reduction in demand for products that do not have a clear competitive edge over alternatives available
• Welcome to the new norm of consumer demand...

#Inflation #PriceIncreases #ConsumerDemand

The Just-in-Time to Just-in-Case transition, a retro step?

Just-in-Time = little/no buffer stock, lower cost. 

Just-in-Case = buffer stock = higher cost = inflation...

Tesco Warns Of Christmas Panic Buying Worse Than During Pandemic

The concerns were raised by Andrew Woolfenden, Tesco’s distribution and fulfilment director, during a meeting of the government’s new food and drink taskforce last week. He suggested that the issue of empty shelves could be worse than that caused by the consumer stockpiling which took place during the first Covid-19 lockdown last year.

NamNews Implications:

• The government still don’t get it:
• “We are closely monitoring labour supply and working with sector leaders to understand how we can best ease particular pinch points.”
• Industry leaders have been telling the government for weeks that the solution lies in temporarily making it easier to bring in workers from abroad to ease the crisis.
• Watch this space…(and minimise breath-holding…)

#PanicBuying #ChristmasShortages #DriverShortages

Lidl Outperforms Rivals In Northern Ireland With Sales Up 25% Over Two Years

Tesco retained its crown as Northern Ireland’s largest grocer with a 3.2% increase in sales as customers bought 5.3% more products while in store. Sainsbury’s grew by 1.9% as shoppers visited the retailer four more times than they did the previous year, whilst Asda’s sales rose by 2.5% as shoppers made additional trips to its stores and added extra items to their baskets.

NamNews Implications:

• Results appear to indicate that suppliers and retailers that are prepared to overcome supply-chain issues in NI can benefit from increased demand…
• While others 'wait & see’….
• Meanwhile, given that Lidl have no Aldi competition in NI, their NI and UK share is the same...
• . ..begging the question: Why are Aldi not in NI, given their success in ROI?
• The exit-clock ticking for Asda?

#Lidl #TescoNI #AldiNI? #AsdaNI

Morrisons Targeting Hospitality Sector With New Wholesale Partnership

The supermarket group has signed a deal (supplying products to pubs, restaurants, and hotels as part of a drive to rapidly expand its wholesale division) with Starstock, an online portal that enables foodservice businesses to order directly from suppliers. 

The move means that hospitality firms will be able to buy products produced by Morrisons to use in their kitchens. Starstock already has partnerships with brand manufacturers including Asahi, Coca-Cola and Britvic.

NamNews Implications:

• The first of many likely innovations when Morrisons moves into private equity ownership.
• Freedom to experiment in ways that a traditional Morrisons could not.
• With EBITDA improvement the key criterion.
• See ‘The Implications of Private Equity Takeover of a Mult’

#Morrisons #foodservicedistribution #FoodService

Sainsbury’s To Offer Tailored Discounts Via Nectar Scheme

From next Wednesday, members of its Nectar loyalty scheme will have access to exclusive discount prices for their favourite products via the Nectar app. Shoppers will be able to view their personal My Nectar Prices discounts and redeem them in store by checking out through Sainsbury’s self-scanning service, SmartShop, either with handsets or on their smartphones.

NamNews Implications:

• Personalisation of discounts will be a first, for a while…
• …given anything successful in retail is invariably copied.
• So, anticipate tweaking by other mults until a dynamic equilibrium is achieved.
• Best for suppliers to propose initiates that optimise this new reality…
• Ahead of your rivals…

 #Personalise #DiscountsPersonalised

Owners Of Asda Considering $15bn Sale Of Forecourt empire EG Group

According to Bloomberg, the Blackburn-based company is working with various banks including Rothschild, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Barclays to consider its options, which also include a stock market listing.

TDR Capital-backed EG Group, founded in 2001 by Issa brothers, has grown by acquisitions to approx. 6,000 forecourt sites in the UK, US, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and Australia.

NamNews Implications:

• A fast-moving post-Lockdown world, full of surprises, or what?
• (and given that 2020 counts as a decade, we should all be more expert in optimising change…)
• This would be an expensive way of testing the potential value of the Group…
• …so we at NamNews are treating this as a real offer.
• In which case, what-ifs all round…
• Especially if a victorious 7-11 brings their hyper-efficient retailing into play.
• Difficult to ignore this space!!!

#ReSell #EGAsdaGroup #ExitStrategy

Tesco Is A Better Target For Private Equity Firms

Financial advisory firm Bernstein suggested in The Grocer that Tesco was the “most attractive” of the UK food retailers for private equity investors. “The turnaround is complete, the business is simplified, diversified and dominant, and the next five years are set to be a story of consistent, strong execution and returning to shareholders.”

Tesco’s market cap is nearly £20bn, with an enterprise value of £32bn when debt is added, making for the biggest potential acquisition in the UK.

NamNews Implications:

• From a NAMs-eye-view, the possibility of a company being in play means a distraction for management.
• (The price paid in a takeover determines the degree of Sale & Leaseback and pressure on financial performance)
• A private equity buyer means a five-year exit strategy via re-flotation, even more emphasis on financial performance.
• Therein the opportunity for suppliers:
• Propose initiatives that demonstrate a direct impact on Tesco’s bottom line…
• …and will look good to bidders.

#TescoBid #MultsConsolidation

End of the road: Soho's al fresco festival to end in September

It has been one of the few positives to come out of the Covid-19 pandemic, but as the virus recedes it appears so will Soho’s al fresco revival.

Westminster City Council has informed businesses that traffic will be re-introduced to Soho’s streets at the end of September, bringing to an end the weekend and evening pedestrian takeover of the capital’s oldest entertainment district.

Restaurants with existing licences will still be able to use pavements, but roads will be off-limits.
The streets affected by the ending of the temporary road closures include Frith St, Greek St, Dean St, Moor St and the buzzing Old Compton Street.

NamNews Implications:

• 'SOHO needs al fresco to survive' says it all
• City A.M. understands the Council are open to the idea of extending alfresco schemes where residents are keen
• Key that residents act...
• More here

#AlFresco #StreetLifeHospitality

Lidl GB Set To Roll Out Eco Label Trial

The ‘Eco-Score’ system utilises open-source data to independently grade products on their sustainability credentials, such as including production methods, impact on biodiversity, packaging and carbon footprint. 

Products also receive better scores where they are certified to third party schemes such as Fairtrade and Rainforest Alliance. The products are then assigned colour codes, ranging from green ‘A’ (low impact) to red ‘E’ (high impact).

The move will initially cover more than 50 Lidl own label products across all 105 of its outlets in Scotland, beginning October 2021. The products included in the trial include teas, coffees, and hot chocolate.

NamNews Implications:

• If shoppers are in favour, and vote with their feet…
• …anticipate a full roll-out.
• As a pointer for all…
• Despite the inevitability of a shelf-price cost?

#EcoLidl #EcoPackaging #LidlFirst

Growing In-Store Visits Lead To Online Grocery Decline

For the four weeks to 14 August 2021, total till sales were up 1.1% year-on-year to £7.7bn, partially helped by the short heatwave in July, which saw sales for the week ending 24 July jump up 6.2%.

NielsenIQ said the growth was driven by 50 million more in-store visits (+12%) during the four-week period.

NamNews Implications:

• Key for suppliers to compare by category.
• And budget accordingly.
• Medium and longer-term, best to try and anticipate how long it will take for online to grow from 13% to 50% of sales.
• (again finetuned by category and channel, where possible)
• Good NielsenIQ advice to factor in consumer uncertainty….
• As the market reopens…

#OnlineGrocery #RoutesToConsumer #nielsen

Charlie Watts - R.I.P

New HFSS Rules To Make More Space Available In Supermarkets

The new regulations concerning in-store promotion and off-shelf display of high fat, salt and sugar (HFSS) products, which will come into force in 2022, are expected to result in 26% of shelf-space in UK supermarkets being “up for grabs”, according to new research from IRI.

IRI noted that HFSS categories – including confectionery, yoghurts and fruit juices – currently make up 38% of actual store space, but this is forecast to drop to just 12% when the new restrictions are introduced.

NamNews Implications:

• ‘HFSS currently make up 38% of actual store space, but this is forecast to drop to just 12%’
• (note also chilled category impact)
• Best keep in mind that any category/brand hoping to optimise space released…
• …will need to at least match HFSS financial performance, sales and gross profits, vacating the space.

#HFSSRetailSpace

Private Equity Firm Now Eyeing Sainsbury’s?

According to The Sunday Times, US group Apollo is said to be looking at options regarding the supermarket group. 

The paper noted that this interest is exploratory, while a Bloomberg report cited unnamed sources to add that Apollo has not hired any advisers yet.

NamNews Implications:

• A bid of £7bn+ should get the ball rolling...
• Re-entering a period of distraction for Sainsbury’s management.
• Supply and Retail…
• Meanwhile, a short- & medium-term focus on financial performance.
• …by reflex, if not by design.

#MultsTakeover #OtherBiddingWar

Post-lockdown pricing options, from the NamNews Team!

#Pricing #PostLockdown

Russian Discounter Opens First UK Store With Prices Cheaper Than Aldi

The interior of the store in Preston is minimalist with painted breeze-block walls and no branding (see video). Journalists visiting the site described it as a “drab” retail space that makes a branch of Aldi look almost glamorous.

To keep costs down, goods are sold from pallets with limited in-store services and only a handful of staff. The product range is focused on longer life ambient and frozen items, alongside household items. Everyday staples like milk, eggs and bread aren’t available, and there is no fresh fruit or veg.
There is an area with a selection of limited deals on non-food products, similar to the middle aisle in Aldi and Lidl stores.

Suppliers must deliver direct to stores and are expected to offer stock on a sale or return basis. MERE’s Chief Procurement OfficerPavels Antonovs, said: “We are a hard discounter. When we see that a manufacturer or a distributor has an offer that fits our business criteria, we will have it in store.”

NamNews Implications:

• A gauntlet thrown down!
• There has to be an Aldi/Lidl reaction…
• The real issue is how the nearby mults will react.
• Getting listings should be straightforward for suppliers.
• (although direct store delivery, SOR may cause some to pause…)
• But a MERE startup in the UK cannot be ignored… 

#HardDiscounter #Discounter

Grocery Sales Fall, Inflation Returns, And Tesco, Sainsbury’s, And Discounters Gain Market Share

The latest take-home grocery figures from Kantar show sales fell by 4.0% year-on-year during the 12 weeks to 8 August as consumers continued to return to pre-pandemic shopping habits, making smaller but more frequent trips to the stores. However, in the last month, sales declined more slowly by 0.5% and the data shows that Covid is still having an impact on people’s spending as grocery sales remain 9.9% higher in the latest 12 weeks than in 2019.

NamNews Implications:

• A solid base of online loyals has emerged…
• ‘Ocado has retained 1.8% of total grocery sales, the same as last year, and sales are up by 44.4% compared with 2019, the fastest two-year growth in the market.’
• Says it all for Ocado.
• Meanwhile, with 11% of Amazon grocery in own-label…
• …they have plenty of O/L headspace vs mkt average 50%.
• ‘Aldi now holds 8.2% of the market and Lidl 6.1%’ illustrates the continuing discounter threat…

#GroceryMarketShares #PostLockdownRecovery #DiscounterThreat

Amazon To Add New Own-Label Food Range To Online Offering

The own-label food range developed for Amazon’s new grocery store format that launched in the UK earlier this year is set to be offered to its online customers.

The two ranges made their debut in March in the new ‘just walk out’ Amazon Fresh stores. Said to be sourced from UK suppliers, the ‘By Amazon’ label focused on everyday items such as milk and bread, whilst the ‘Our Selection’ offer covered more premium lines. They are sold alongside branded products and items that come from Morrisons and Booths.

NamNews Implications:

• The ultimate test of a retailer’s pulling power (and ego) is the extent to which they can monetise their retail brand via own-label.
• Key is the Generation they choose to position the offering (See our 1-page treatment of Four generations of own label)
• i.e. like Tesco Finest, deliberately positioned as Gen 4: better than national brand but the same price.
• Then branded suppliers have a real (and threatening) competitor…

#PrivateLabel #Amazon

Lockdown, what Lockdown? Some wishful thinking from the NamNews Team!

#Lockdown #Hospitality #PoliticalDilusion

Two Wrongs won't make it a Right Question, from the NamNews Team!

 (Best focus on how to rebuild a business from Lockdown?) 

#LockdownDamage #BackToBasics #RelativeCompetitiveAppeal

Asda’s CEO Steps Down Earlier Than Expected

Trevor Strain, Morrisons’ Chief Operating Officer, Steve Murrells, the boss of the Co-op, Jason Tarry, CEO of Tesco UK & Ireland, Stuart Machin, head of Food at M&S, Ronny Gottschlich, a former boss of Lidl, and Anthony Hemmerdinger, Asda’s COO, have been named by industry watchers as potential candidates to take over from Burnley.

NamNews Implications:

• With six potential candidates, NAMs will need further clarity…
• …in order to muse re impact of a replacement on Asda policy.
• Meanwhile, anticipate more influence from the owners…

#Succession #AsdaFuture

The Hut Group Makes Another Acquisition

E-commerce giant The Hut Group (THG) has continued its acquisition spree by buying online retailer Cult Beauty for £275m.

Launched in 2008, London-headquartered Cult Beauty sells around 300 brands across skincare, haircare and cosmetics, including Charlotte Tilbury, Drunk Elephant, and Huda Beauty.

NamNews Implications:

• In the infinite space of online…
• …this is a no-brainer addition to THG will add scale benefits inc cost efficiencies, minimum.
• And at growth rates of 38% and 41%…
• …you have to have a good reason for not being on board.

#

OnlineCosmetics #beauty #skincare